CT-Quinnipiac: Malloy vs. Foley could go either way

[Tender Branson]

2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Foley the Republican and Dan Malloy the Democrat, for whom would you vote?

43-43

From May 1 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 443 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2039

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

[Tender Branson]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

Malloy has a slightly positive approval rating though, 48-46.

I think this should be enough to survive in a highly Democratic state.

[pbrower2a]

Much stronger than Quinn in Illinois.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

Malloy has a slightly positive approval rating though, 48-46.

I think this should be enough to survive in a highly Democratic state.

Sure, if by a "highly Democratic state," you mean one where Malloy was the first Democrat elected governor in nearly a quarter century.

[windjammer]

Seriously, the CT republican party is extremely effective (see my state senate PVI's thread). Malloy is clearly the favorite, but Foley has a decent chance to win.
Lean D

[Maxwell]

Seriously, the CT republican party is extremely effective (see my state senate PVI's thread). Malloy is clearly the favorite, but Foley has a decent chance to win.
Lean D

I think this is a fair assessment. Foley is a good candidate, but Dem heavy Connecticut may be enough for Malloy to get by.

[free my dawg]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

I think so.

I'd say this is at the very most Tilts D.

[Cubby]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

Shays hasn't shown any interest in running this time. He's too moderate for the state GOP.

Right now it's all about Tom Foley, State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton

McKinney is my favorite of the three. Foley is a nobody and too "old money Greenwich" for my taste. If he couldn't win in the landslide of 2010 I don't see how he wins now. He's been in absentia for the last three years.

Boughton has had numerous civil rights troubles with the police in Danbury, he's extremely anti-immigrant. Which isn't really a big issue in CT outside of East Haven.

[Miles]

Malloy is getting 78% of Dems while Foley is almost maxed out with Republicans (90%). Dems will come home to Malloy.

[ElectionsGuy]

Malloy is getting 78% of Dems while Foley is almost maxed out with Republicans (90%). Dems will come home to Malloy.

Yeah, this is why I think this race is Lean D

[Free Bird]

I think we are all overestimating Malloy here. Look how narrow his margin of victory was last time. With Lukewarm approval ratings and no extended voting in Bridgeport this time, I don't think he's looking so good.

[greenforest32]

I think we are all overestimating Malloy here. Look how narrow his margin of victory was last time. With Lukewarm approval ratings and no extended voting in Bridgeport this time, I don't think he's looking so good.

Connecticut Democrats have actually been pretty aggressive on voting rights. CT will have online and same-day registration in 2014; neither of which were available in 2010.

Also that 2014 ballot referral: http://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_Early_Voting_Amendment,_HJ_36_%282014%29

[Free Bird]

I think we are all overestimating Malloy here. Look how narrow his margin of victory was last time. With Lukewarm approval ratings and no extended voting in Bridgeport this time, I don't think he's looking so good.

Connecticut Democrats have actually been pretty aggressive on voting rights. CT will have online and same-day registration in 2014; neither of which were available in 2010.

Also that 2014 ballot referral: http://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_Early_Voting_Amendment,_HJ_36_%282014%29

That's all fine and dandy, but I'm saying that Bridgeport and a few other heavily Dem areas stayed open past normal closing in 2010. Foley had a respectable lead most of the time until those extended votes were counted. With that not happening this time and Malloy not exactly well liked here, I'm saying Foley is being underestimated here. See everyone here not from CT goes by numbers. I first hand know what he has done and the attitude of people not surveyed.

[bore]

I think we are all overestimating Malloy here. Look how narrow his margin of victory was last time. With Lukewarm approval ratings and no extended voting in Bridgeport this time, I don't think he's looking so good.

Connecticut Democrats have actually been pretty aggressive on voting rights. CT will have online and same-day registration in 2014; neither of which were available in 2010.

Also that 2014 ballot referral: http://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_Early_Voting_Amendment,_HJ_36_%282014%29

That's all fine and dandy, but I'm saying that Bridgeport and a few other heavily Dem areas stayed open past normal closing in 2010. Foley had a respectable lead most of the time until those extended votes were counted. With that not happening this time and Malloy not exactly well liked here, I'm saying Foley is being underestimated here. See everyone here not from CT goes by numbers. I first hand know what he has done and the attitude of people not surveyed.

Numbers are invariably better at predicting elections than hunches based off the opinions of a dozen people you happen to know.

[homelycooking]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

Malloy has a slightly positive approval rating though, 48-46.

I think this should be enough to survive in a highly Democratic state.

Sure, if by a "highly Democratic state," you mean one where Malloy was the first Democrat elected governor in nearly a quarter century.

I don't think that Shays was even considering a run. His massive primary loss to Linda McMahon in 2012 is a good indication that a moderate Republican, even in a Presidential election year, will struggle mightily to win his party's nomination.

Oldies, while you are correct to point out that Democrats have struggled to win the Governor's mansion, keep in mind that Democrats hold a gigantic advantage among registered voters here, no Republican has won election to a statewide office or Congressional seat since 2006, and that the Republican presidential nominee has been beaten in Connecticut by at least 10 points for the past five consecutive elections. The statement that this is a "heavily Democratic state" is not really up for dispute. That said, this will be a very close election, and I think that the margin of victory will once again be very small. The prescription for victory for Democrats is pretty simple - knock on every door in Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven and get those "urban" voters out to the polls.

I'll do my part for Democrats, as a newly registered Republican, by voting for Boughton in the primary.

[Napoleon]

Why did you register as a Republican ...

[Flake]

Why did you register as a Republican ...

So he can vote for Boughton

[homelycooking]

'Twas a joke. Good enough to seem credible, bad enough to be not funny.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Great news!  Hope Foley can win.

Did Chris Shays decide not to run?

Malloy has a slightly positive approval rating though, 48-46.

I think this should be enough to survive in a highly Democratic state.

Sure, if by a "highly Democratic state," you mean one where Malloy was the first Democrat elected governor in nearly a quarter century.

I don't think that Shays was even considering a run. His massive primary loss to Linda McMahon in 2012 is a good indication that a moderate Republican, even in a Presidential election year, will struggle mightily to win his party's nomination.

Oldies, while you are correct to point out that Democrats have struggled to win the Governor's mansion, keep in mind that Democrats hold a gigantic advantage among registered voters here, no Republican has won election to a statewide office or Congressional seat since 2006, and that the Republican presidential nominee has been beaten in Connecticut by at least 10 points for the past five consecutive elections. The statement that this is a "heavily Democratic state" is not really up for dispute. That said, this will be a very close election, and I think that the margin of victory will once again be very small. The prescription for victory for Democrats is pretty simple - knock on every door in Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven and get those "urban" voters out to the polls.

I'll do my part for Democrats, as a newly registered Republican, by voting for Boughton in the primary.

Go ahead and do that then, although I find that to be incredibly sneaky and underhanded (even more so than in open primary states.)
Plus, 2006 isn't really that long ago, especially if you consider how long different parties have had winning streaks in other states.