Ballot referendums and how each state would vote on them

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Just a fun little game I thought of.  How do you think each state would vote on a referendum...

...to ban abortion after the first trimester?
...to declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person (MS Personhood Amendment)?
...to legalize gay marriage?
...to enact Manchin-Toomey style requirements on background checks for gunowners?
...to ban assault weapons?
...to raise the state minimum wage to $10.10? (Obviously higher for a state with that requirement, but only reasonably so)
...to legalize recreational marijuana?
...to legalize medical marijuana?
...to enact voter ID?

There are obviously a lot more I can think of, but those would probably gain the most national attention and activists on both sides.

For uniform purposes, please color a state green to indicate a majority 'yes' vote and red to indicate a majority 'no' vote, which you can assume would be the only two options to vote for on each ballot referendum.  Shades are essential, of course.

I'll post some maps later on.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

...to ban abortion after the first trimester:

...to declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person (MS Personhood Amendment):

...to legalize gay marriage:

...to raise the minimum wage:

(This one's probably overconfident.)

[JerryArkansas]

Here is how Arkansas would vote

...to ban abortion after the first trimester? 50-50 against
...to declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person (MS Personhood Amendment)?  60-40 against
...to legalize gay marriage?  66-34 against
...to enact Manchin-Toomey style requirements on background checks for gunowners?  59-41 for
...to ban assault weapons?  56-44 against
...to raise the state minimum wage to $10.10? (Obviously higher for a state with that requirement, but only reasonably so)  54-46 for
...to legalize recreational marijuana?  70-30 against
...to legalize medical marijuana?  51-49 for
...to enact voter ID?  63-37 for

[Skill and Chance]

...to ban abortion after the first trimester:

...to declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person (MS Personhood Amendment):

...to legalize gay marriage:

...to raise the minimum wage:

(This one's probably overconfident.)

I agree with almost all of these.  My only points of disagreement:

Abortion

Alaska would vote no- it is not particularly SoCon
Montana would probably vote no
Georgia would vote yes prior to 2020

Personhood

Would also pass in AR, KY, WV and maybe TN

Gay Marriage

Florida would surely be more supportive than Ohio
Unsure about AZ and AK

Minimum Wage

The energy boom states with labor shortages would vote no.  In order of highest confidence: OK, AK, ND, WY, TX

UT would probably pass it due to Mormon teachings about the poor, but I'm not at all certain.


 

[Indy Texas]

I think all of these need to be skewed somewhat to the right (more in favor of "conservative" initiatives and less in favor of "liberal" ones) when you factor in voter turnout.

[henster]

If personhood couldn't even pass in Mississippi I don't think it can pass anywhere in the US.

[Del Tachi]

Ballot initiatives to raise the minimum wage would undoubtedly fail in places like the Deep South and maybe even the Midwest due to excessive efforts on the part of conservative groups (i.e., the Koch brothers). 

[7,052,770]

If personhood couldn't even pass in Mississippi I don't think it can pass anywhere in the US.

I think it could pass in Utah, depending on how the campaign went. Possibly in a state with a low black % like West Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Ballot initiatives to raise the minimum wage would undoubtedly fail in places like the Deep South and maybe even the Midwest due to excessive efforts on the part of conservative groups (i.e., the Koch brothers). 

I don't think there has ever been an example of a failed minimum wage increase. People are always in favor of getting a raise.

[politicallefty]

I don't think there has ever been an example of a failed minimum wage increase. People are always in favor of getting a raise.

I thought the same, but that's not correct. This is every ballot initiative related to the minimum wage:

Washington (1988): 77-23 Yes

California (1996): 61-39 Yes
Missouri (1996): 29-71 No
Montana (1996): 44-56 No
Oregon (1996): 57-43 Yes

Washington (1998): 66-34 Yes

Oregon (2002): 51-49 Yes

Florida (2004): 71-29 Yes
Nevada (2004): 68-32 Yes

Arizona (2006): 65-35 Yes
Colorado (2006): 53-47 Yes
Missouri (2006): 76-24 Yes
Montana (2006): 73-27 Yes
Nevada (2006): 69-31 Yes
Ohio (2006): 57-43 Yes

New Jersey (2013): 61-39 Yes

I don't how to make sense of those numbers. Missouri and Montana in 1996 are the only two instances where minimum wage increases have failed at the ballot box. (I can't reconcile a 29-71 defeat for the minimum wage in Missouri at the same time President Clinton won 48-41.) However, in 2006, both states approved an increase by huge margins. On the other hand, the increases in Colorado and Ohio were much narrower than other states that year.

[Skill and Chance]

Was the Missouri referendum a $20 minimum wage or something equally ridiculous in 1996 dollars?

[Hatman 🍁]

Not quite, perhaps it was the annual increase people were worried about: http://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Minimum_Wage,_Proposition_A_%281996%29

[Indy Texas]

It's hard to have sympathy for the working poor in the mid-90s when unemployment was sub-4 percent and there were plenty of entry-level technology jobs that didn't require any post-high school education.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's hard to have sympathy for the working poor in the mid-90s when unemployment was sub-4 percent and there were plenty of entry-level technology jobs that didn't require any post-high school education.

I was alive in 1996. It wasn't like that. There were NO jobs around here in 1996. ZERO.

On the other hand, the mid-1990s to mid-2000s was the era when everyone thought it was "cool" to vote the same way their boss did. That might have more to do with it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Missouri referendum from 1996 has a particularly interesting clause that would "provide for severability of any provision of application of the measure held invalid."

Why would part of a minimum wage law be ruled invalid?

[jimrtex]

The Missouri referendum from 1996 has a particularly interesting clause that would "provide for severability of any provision of application of the measure held invalid."

Why would part of a minimum wage law be ruled invalid?

It is standard to include such language.

A challenger could argue that the bill would not have passed, except as a total package.

A state minimum wage bill arguably interferes with interstate commerce, which only Congress has authority to regulate.  There could be an issue whether a municipality could be granted the right to set a different minimum wage.  There could be a question about the manner in which a minimum wage is automatically raised.

[angus]

Don't they pluralize it as "referenda" where you live?  Anyway, for Pennsylvania--which doesn't really need to come up with a plural form since binding referenda aren't a big thing here--I'd guess the following results would materialize:

...to ban abortion after the first trimester?
...to declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person (MS Personhood Amendment)?
...to legalize gay marriage?
...to enact Manchin-Toomey style requirements on background checks for gunowners?
...to ban assault weapons?
...to raise the state minimum wage to $10.10? (Obviously higher for a state with that requirement, but only reasonably so)
...to legalize recreational marijuana?
...to legalize medical marijuana?
...to enact voter ID?

yes.

no.

no.

hell no.

maybe.

no.

no, unfortunately.

who cares?  Obamacare's gonna solve all our medical problems, right?

definitely.

[Mr. Illini]

Gay marriage

Legalize marijuana recreationally

Ban abortion after trimester 1

Raising the FEDERAL minimum wage

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is there ANY state that would approve a federal "right-to-work" law?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

...to ban abortion after the first trimester:

...to declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person (MS Personhood Amendment):

...to legalize gay marriage:

...to raise the minimum wage:

(This one's probably overconfident.)

Missouri would vote against banning abortion after the first trimester?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Is there ANY state that would approve a federal "right-to-work" law?

Could see Indiana going either way tbh

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is there ANY state that would approve a federal "right-to-work" law?

Could see Indiana going either way tbh

After what happened in MO, KY won't approve it. WV, MT, and AK definitely won't.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also, updated gay marriage map?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Is there ANY state that would approve a federal "right-to-work" law?

Could see Indiana going either way tbh

After what happened in MO, KY won't approve it. WV, MT, and AK definitely won't.

KY is several points more Republican than MO, so it probably would tbh. WV same thing goes, especially considering how few unions there actually are there today. AK is pretty rural and also similarly has no special union character, and MT I could also see going either way, I honestly didn't really consider some of the copper mines.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It lost in Missouri with 70%.