Who wins IA and NH and do they win the nomination? GOP Edition
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  Who wins IA and NH and do they win the nomination? GOP Edition
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Author Topic: Who wins IA and NH and do they win the nomination? GOP Edition  (Read 665 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« on: May 10, 2014, 07:10:58 PM »

In the past few cycles, the winner of the Republican Iowa Caucus hasn't done too well in the rest of the primary calendar.  So, my question is who wins the first two states and how well do they perform in the rest of the calendar?
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Hamster
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2014, 07:52:43 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2014, 07:56:26 PM by Hamster »

We don't even know who is running!

Historically, IA and NH are split between two candidates. In fact, the only competitive race with the modern primary system in which a GOP candidate won both states was Gerald Ford in 1976. So I'm going to go with the safe answer of nobody.

EDIT: But that wasn't what you asked, you want to know who we think will win the first two states. I guess I'll keep it for posterity's sake.

If Huckabee runs then he will win Iowa. If Bush runs (and does not flop) then he should win New Hampshire. Generally speaking, the conservative candidate is expected to win Iowa and make a decent run, but then lose to the establishment pick, who wins New Hampshire. Whether 2016 is actually that formulaic remains to be seen.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2014, 08:01:44 PM »

Too early to say who'll win any of them.  However, Paul has a realistic shot at being the first candidate since Muskie to win both Iowa and NH, yet lose the nomination.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2014, 10:54:16 PM »

Too early to say who'll win any of them.  However, Paul has a realistic shot at being the first candidate since Muskie to win both Iowa and NH, yet lose the nomination.

Last time, I called Romney might be the first Republican to win both and struggle to win the nomination (or did Ford do that in 76?). I was off by less than 10 votes! Though maybe he wouldn't have struggled as much if his Iowa win had stuck.

I also would bet against Paul being the nominee even if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he's way too vulnerable. But I don't like his chances in Iowa really.

Gingrich had a decent chance to be the first Republican nominee to win neither Iowa nor New Hampshire and it's possible a less flawed candidate can accomplish that this time around. This does feel like the kind of cycle it could happen.


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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2014, 11:54:50 AM »

I am guessing that either Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Mike Pence will win in Iowa, while either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush will win New Hampshire.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2014, 12:07:21 PM »

I am guessing that either Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Mike Pence will win in Iowa, while either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush will win New Hampshire.

I think on this list only Cruz and Santorum are better than 50/50 to run right now. I think Iowans will readily dump Santorum for another so-con. He only won by default last time.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2014, 12:11:35 PM »

Who could win Iowa:
Pence (could win nomination)
Walker (could win nomination)
Perry (likely not win nomination unless he does well in polls)
Cruz (if GOP wants him, let them have him)
Santorum (if GOP wants him, let them have him)
Huckabee (if GOP wants him, let them have him)

Who could win NH
Paul (I see him clinch nomination, but not as now with his comments)
Bush (NH or bust)
Christie (NH or bust)
Portman (Economic conservative credentials does well, but may not win nomination due to gay marriage)
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