Lumine's Election and Political Tracker (Epilogue) - Tracker Closed

[Flake]

Poll #6:
Source: BruhBruh Polling
Date: May 20 - 23, 2014
Voters: 40
MOE: 13.63%

BruhBruh Polling - Presidential Race #2

Governor DemPGH (Lab-OR)/Governor Windjammer (Lab-MN) - 38%
Former GM Sirnick (TPP-NY)/Governor Dallasfan65 (DR-MA) - 30%
Former Governor Winfield (Ind-RI)/Former Governor AndrewTX (Ind-TX) - 18%
Former Senator Snowstalker (LF-ND)/IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA) - 2%
Someone Else - 10%
Undecided - 2%

There seems to be a small sign of right-wing dissatisfaction with the race. Winfield's numbers have gone down slightly, with a large percentage of votes for Someone else. There are two leaders - Sirnick and DemPGH, two candidates who, oddly enough, ran on the same ticket just two elections ago. Snowstalker support declines, probably due to having just one name on the ballot, and possibly because of united support on the left behind DemPGH, who sees his stock go up since the last poll.

[Lumine]

For the IDS Senate Race, I'd move it to toss-up, since Maxwell is leading in many polls.

Noted and changed!

[Flake]

Poll #1: IDS Senate

Source: North Star Polls
Date: May 21-24, 2014
Voters: 11
MOE: 23.18%

Maxwell (Democratic Republican-Louisiana) 45.5% (5)
North Carolina Yankee (Federalist-North Carolina): 36.3% (4)
Undecided: 18.2% (2)

Sample size: 11
MOE: 23.18%
Date: May 21 - 24, 2014

(I swear there were more polls)


Poll #2: Northeast Senate

Source: North Star Polls
Date: May 21-24, 2014
Voters: 10
MOE: 27.28%

Bore (Labor-Rhode Island) 70% (7)
Deus (Democratic Republican-New York) 30% (3)
Undecided: 0% (0)

Sample size: 10
MOE: 27.28%
Date: May 21 - 24, 2014

[Flake]

Average of last three polls:*

DemPGH (Labor-Oregon)/Windjammer (Labor-Minnesota): 34.1%
SirNick (TPP-New York)/Dallasfan (DR-Massachusetts): 27.5%
Winfield (Independent-Rhode Island)/AndrewTX (Independent-TX): 25.4%
Snowstalker (Left Front-North Dakota)/Maxwell (DR-Louisiana): 7.6%**
Other/Undecided: 5.3%

*=Averages rounded, may not equal 100%
**=including poll with Oakvale (and Maxwell) as running mate

[ZuWo]

Frankly, I think that this presidential election looks exciting only on the surface. The way the field of candidates is set up I would be extremely surprised if the Labor ticket didn't win very handily. DemPGH/Windjammer essentially have a lock on the left-wing vote. Indeed, I can't think of a single left-leaning voter who wouldn't vote for them when given the choice between a ticket made up of two firmly left-wing Atlasians and other tickets that consist of a moderate leftist and a libertarian on the one hand (Sirnick/Dallasfan) and two centrists on the other hand (Winfield/Andrew).

What does the voter base of SirNick/Dallasfan and Winfield/Andrew look like? Well, the former may count on the support of what has remained of the TPP, a party which is probably on its deathbed (again), and a highly enthusiastic but small libertarian party, the D-R. You may throw in a few independents, but that's it. Therefore, I expect Sirnick/Dallasfan to do well on second preferences, but that's probably going to be worthless. If Winfield/Andrew remain the ticket that's perceived as the most right-wing, they will get a very high number of conservative and center-right votes, which, considering the fact that those voters represent about 30% of the Atlasian electorate, should be enough for the final round. However, that's obviously not going to be enough for them to get 50%+1 of the vote.

TL;DR: DemPGH/Windjammer will probably win the election with about 55-60% of the vote. I wouldn't mind if I were proven wrong, though.

[Cassius]

Just to clarify, I have absolutely no intention of running against DC should he choose to seek re-election to the Mideast regional Senate seat, and he can count upon my full support if he does choose to do so.

[Lumine]

Frankly, I think that this presidential election looks exciting only on the surface. The way the field of candidates is set up I would be extremely surprised if the Labor ticket didn't win very handily. DemPGH/Windjammer essentially have a lock on the left-wing vote. Indeed, I can't think of a single left-leaning voter who wouldn't vote for them when given the choice between a ticket made up of two firmly left-wing Atlasians and other tickets that consist of a moderate leftist and a libertarian on the one hand (Sirnick/Dallasfan) and two centrists on the other hand (Winfield/Andrew).

What does the voter base of SirNick/Dallasfan and Winfield/Andrew look like? Well, the former may count on the support of what has remained of the TPP, a party which is probably on its deathbed (again), and a highly enthusiastic but small libertarian party, the D-R. You may throw in a few independents, but that's it. Therefore, I expect Sirnick/Dallasfan to do well on second preferences, but that's probably going to be worthless. If Winfield/Andrew remain the ticket that's perceived as the most right-wing, they will get a very high number of conservative and center-right votes, which, considering the fact that those voters represent about 30% of the Atlasian electorate, should be enough for the final round. However, that's obviously not going to be enough for them to get 50%+1 of the vote.

TL;DR: DemPGH/Windjammer will probably win the election with about 55-60% of the vote. I wouldn't mind if I were proven wrong, though.

I agree on Winfield having little to no chance at a second ballot, but while DemPGH is electorally formidable, I still think he can be beaten as long as the election has more than one round. Winfield has not done anything in the past week an there's talk of a potential alternative Federalist nominee, which would probably secure that SirNick goes indeed to the second round, in which I highly doubt the right will go for DemPGH.

Just to clarify, I have absolutely no intention of running against DC should he choose to seek re-election to the Mideast regional Senate seat, and he can count upon my full support if he does choose to do so.

Noted, I made that suggestion in light of your recent activity and visibility in the region.

[DC Al Fine]

Just to clarify, I have absolutely no intention of running against DC should he choose to seek re-election to the Mideast regional Senate seat, and he can count upon my full support if he does choose to do so.

Noted, I made that suggestion in light of your recent activity and visibility in the region.

I actually announced my re-election bid a couple weeks ago. Campaigns can be pretty low profile when you have no opponent.

[sentinel]

The plan is to go all the way!

[Simfan34]

Clarence, The Atlasian Post, and I have endorsed Winfield!

[Lumine]

Clarence, The Atlasian Post, and I have endorsed Winfield!

Noted!

Just to clarify, I have absolutely no intention of running against DC should he choose to seek re-election to the Mideast regional Senate seat, and he can count upon my full support if he does choose to do so.

Noted, I made that suggestion in light of your recent activity and visibility in the region.

I actually announced my re-election bid a couple weeks ago. Campaigns can be pretty low profile when you have no opponent.

My apologies then, Senator, I keep making mistakes, xD

[Lumine]

Winfield back on the trail:

Endorsed by Simfan and Cris, Winfield fights back over criticism from the center-right:

May 25th: A day after the start of the "Draft Riley" campaign and sinking in the polls, Winfield is back on the trail, trying to display a strong effort to win the center-right and recover his standing on the polls. The candidare chose to go after President Duke's homestate of South Carolina, presenting his take on Health Care reform with the so called "Wincare", a reform plan that envisions what seems to be an expansion of the current system (at least in regards to coverage) with the elimination of the sales tax and its replacement with a new board goods and services tax. At the same time, Winfield stated that he will use some of his proposals presented in his previous presidential runs, and he recieved the valuable endorsement of former Midwest Representative and expert analyst/pollster Cris and the current Game Moderator, Simfan. It remains to be seen if "Wincare" will be well-recieved by the center-right, but it seems that at the very least Winfield will run an active campaign after all.

[Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin]

Nice job with day-to-day coverage, Lumine, even though you've endorsed my opponent.

Good to see a chronicle of sorts. I'm very pleased to have the public support of three previous presidents  so far, and maybe the private support of one or two more. And it's nice that a lot of those vocal supporters are folks I've worked with! If elected, we won't neglect the, er, people.

Thank you, Mr. Vice-President, it was pretty disturbing not to see anybody trying to present their own skewed and twisted version of what's happening right now, xD

____________________________________________________________________________

Senate Election Special!

Overall: During the past months Labor has been able to hold to a majority of regional Senate seats, which has been crucial to their (so far failed) attempts to control an outright majority in the Senate. In February they sucessfully played defense against Poirot in the Northeast and me in the Midwest, but with new challengers and a changed political situation, can Labor hold to their seats one more time? Bore and TNF already have challengers, as has Yankee, and only DC al Fine (if he runs for reelection) and Tyrion face no opponents as of now. And not only that, we already have two candidates announced for the next At-Large election, Former President Polnut and Former President Dr. Cynic, who can be considered almost safe bets for the next election.

Now, let's get into detail:

The Pacific:

Senator Tyrion v. ?

Analysis: It seemed Tyrion was going to be challenged back in February, but the four potential challengers (Flo, DemPGH, PJ and Superique) for one reason or another ended up not running for that seat. As a result, Tyrion went unchallenged, and it seems he will go unchallenged this time as well. But there is room for a challenger, or at least I think so. While current GM Simfan is unlilkely to run, a campaign by Devin, Oakvale or a primary challenge by Flo might bring a truly competitive race to the Pacific. But until that happens, this is a Safe Labor Hold.

The Mideast:

Senator DC al Fine v. ?

Analysis: With DC al Fine winning his past election in a landslide against a write-in opponent and with the demise of the left across the region, he seems more than likely to retain his seat should he run. While the Senator has not announced his intention, I believe he will run for that seat. Potential challengers might include former Attorney General Benconstine to the left and Cassius to the right, but this is almost assuredly a Safe Federalist Hold.

The Midwest:

Senator TNF v. Citizen RR1997

Analysis: Senator TNF is probably one of the symbols of Labor across the nation, and so far he has faced three strong challengers with Maxwell, Rooney and myself. But even with a massive advantage in terms of likely voters, TNF faces himself challenged once again, this time by new citizen RR1997, a Federalist from Iowa who strongly believes TNF can (and should, going by his comments) be defeated. And while TNF is considered unbeatable to some, it should be remembered that I actually came one vote short of unseating him, so I'll rate this only as a Likely Labor Hold.

The South:

Senator North Carolina Yankee v. Former Governor Maxwell

Analysis: After months of landslides victories, the longest serving Senator in the history of Atlasia finally has a strong challenger in Maxwell. While Senator Yankee has not stated if he will run again or not, this will be a race to watch, a race that will hopefully increase activity levels in the South. So far Maxwell has released his banner and his take on some bills being currently discussed, and since he leads the polls so far this is probably a Toss-up.

The Northeast:

Senator Bore v. Northeast Representative Deus

Analysis: Ah, the Clash of the Titans of this election. While Bore easily defeated challenger Poirot last election, Deus comes right from an active and strong Senate bid for the special election, and both candidates have already released platforms, ideas and criticism of one another. Polls tend to show contradictory results, and it seems the Northeast easy is divided in regards to this election. Some say Bore has the advantage, but I think this is a Toss-up.

I would like to formally state that I will not challenge Tyrion,in order to focus on running for Governor.

[Flake]

Oh yeah might as well tell you that I'm not challenging Tyrion either.

[Simfan34]

No comment.

[Lumine]

Snowstalker drops out!

Denounces the electoral system as "broken"

May 25th: It seems this election is bound to change at every moment, and now we have our second presidential candidate dropping out of the race (if we can count Tmthforu's brief campaign), with Snowstalker ending his bid after a brief and uneventful campaign on behalf of the Left Front. According to the former Senator, the electoral system is broken and it seems he has plans for the future, as he has promised to elaborate in due time over how the working class can attain power. As of today Snowstalker was polling fourth and ranging from 2 to 7% of the vote, and his withdrawal will most likely give another boost to DemPGH.

[sentinel]

While I don't think polls are an accurate representation of what the voting pool will look like, I am happy to note that the SirNick/Dallasfan ticket is currently in the lead in Flo's most recent one

[sentinel]

From Robot Unicorn Polls - total voters 25 - Ignore the negative sign in front of the number of votes, its just from copying and pasting.

Bold = most common choice, italics = someone voted for it.

What do you think is the most important problem facing Atlasia today?

Economy         -2 (8%)
Unemployment/Jobs         -1 (4%)
Game Reform         -7 (28%)
Activity         -5 (20%)
Dissatisfaction with government         -1 (4%)
Health care         -3 (12%)
Education         -1 (4%)
Ethics/moral/Religious decline         -1 (4%)
Foreign affairs         -0 (0%)
Immigration         -0 (0%)
National Security         -0 (0%)
Welfare         -0 (0%)
Regional Consolidation         -0 (0%)
Abortion         -0 (0%)
Drugs         -0 (0%)
The media         -0 (0%)
Gay rights         -0 (0%)
Energy security/energy         -0 (0%)
Terrorism         -0 (0%)
Judicial System/Courts/Laws         -0 (0%)
Environmental concerns/natural disasters/climate change         -1 (4%)
Poverty         -0 (0%)
Taxes         -0 (0%)
Workers' Rights         -2 (8%)
Federal budget/federal deficit         -1 (4%)
Other (Reply below)         -0 (0%)

[Flake]

Most Important Problem Facing Atlasia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(If you're a presidential candidate you might want to look at these results and start talking about Game Reform, Activity, and Healthcare more than Education and the Budget)

[Flake]

Poll #2: IDS Senate

Source: BruhBruh Polling
Date: May 18 - 21, 2014
Sample size: 17
MOE: 15.2-15.56%

IDS Senate Internal Poll
IDS Legislator Maxwell (DR-LA) - 52.9%
Senator North Carolina Yankee (Fed-NC) - 35.3%
Undecided - 11.8%

Margin of Error - 15.2%

A narrow lead for Maxwell in the first poll of this competitive race. However, it's a long road, and margin of error of Atlasia polls is high, so it will be interesting to see where this race goes.

[Simfan34]

Don't be terrible, Maxwell.

[Maxwell]

Don't be terrible, Maxwell.

What do you mean by that? In spite of these polls, I think it would be highly unlikely for me to win.

[Flake]

Winfield has just dropped out of the Presidential race.

Dammit there goes all of our polls. (Maybe the Draft Riley campaign will be successful?)

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Who will be the ticket of the right this time? They finally have a chance to run a conservative now that I'm barred from forcing myself into office each election.

[Flake]

Who will be the ticket of the right this time? They finally have a chance to run a conservative now that I'm barred from forcing myself into office each election.

SirNick is still a bit to the right of you