Lumine's Election and Political Tracker (Epilogue) - Tracker Closed

[Flake]

According to our live presidential election results tracker, DemPGH is leading SirNick in the second round, leading by about 4%. The write in ticket, Hagrid/Tmth, takes about 9% of the vote in the first round of voting.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The momentum is definitely on our side!

[Flake]

First Round:
DemPGH: 48.27%
SirNick: 41.37%
Hagrid (WI): 10.34%

Second Round:
DemPGH: 58.62%
SirNick: 42.31%

[Lumine]

Turnout so far:16.59%

[Flake]

[Senator Cris]

[Simfan34]

Very nice, but we don't use commas to separate integers from decimals. We use a full stop.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Very nice, but we don't use commas to separate integers from decimals. We use a full stop.

does it matter that much to you? there are like 10.000 more important things a game-moderator could be focusing on

[Senator Cris]

Voting by party.

FED (28,6% of total) --> (17/50) 34,0%
LAB (28% of total) --> (15/49) 30,6%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> (0/12) 0,0%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> (6/12) 50,0%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> (2/6) 33,3%
Others (9,7% of total) --> (2/17) 11,8%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> (5/29) 17,3%

TOTAL --> (47/175) 26,9%

[Senator Cris]

I can post a projection on the final results?

[Senator Cris]

Last vote counted: Pessimistic Antineutrino

Voting by party.

FED (28,6% of total) --> (21/50) 42,0%
LAB (28% of total) --> (17/49) 34,7%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> (0/12) 0,0%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> (6/12) 50,0%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> (2/6) 33,3%
Others (9,7% of total) --> (2/17) 11,8%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> (5/29) 17,3%

TOTAL --> (53/175) 30,3%

FED (28,6% of total) --> DemPGH (10/21) 47,6% SirNick (11/21) 52,4%
LAB (28% of total) --> DemPGH (17/17) 100,0% SirNick (0/17) 0,0%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> DemPGH (0/0) 0,0% SirNick (0/0) 0,0%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> DemPGH (0/6) 0,0% SirNick (6/6) 100,0%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> DemPGH (1/2) 50,0% SirNick (1/2) 50,0%
Others (9,7% of total) --> DemPGH (1/2) 50,0% SirNick (1/2) 50,0%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> DemPGH (3/5) 60,0% SirNick (2/5) 40,0%

TOTAL --> DemPGH (32/53) 60,4% SirNick (21/49) 39,4%

Assuming that all the TPP registered will vote for SirNick, the projection (assuming that ALL the 175 registered will vote and considering that the current distribution of the vote among the parties will be the same) is:

DemPGH --> (102/175) --> 58,1%
SirNick --> (73/175) --> 41,9%

MoE: High.

[Senator Cris]

For the Midwest Senate Race:

Voting by party.

FED (19,3% of total) --> (4/6) 66,7%
LAB (45,2% of total) --> (3/14) 21,4%
TPP (0% of total) --> (0/0) 0,0%
D-R (0% of total) --> (0/0) 0,0%
AAPRJD (9,7% of total) --> (1/3) 33,3%
Others (12,9% of total) --> (1/4) 25,0%
Ind (12,9% of total) --> (2/4) 50,0%

TOTAL --> (11/31) 35,4%

FED (19,3% of total) --> TNF (0/4) 0,0% RR1997 (4/4) 100,0%
LAB (45,2% of total) --> TNF (2/3) 66,7% RR1997 (1/3) 33,3%
AAPRJD (9,7% of total) --> TNF (1/3) 100,0% RR1997 (0/3) 0,0%
Others (12,9% of total) --> TNF (0/4) 0,0% RR1997 (1/4) 100,0%
Ind (12,9% of total) --> TNF (1/2) 50,0% RR1997 (1/2) 50,0%

TOTAL --> DemPGH (4/11) 36,4% RR1997 (7/11) 63,6%

Assuming that ALL the 31 registered will vote and considering that the current distribution of the vote among the parties will be the same, the projection is:

TNF --> (14,4/31) --> 46,2%
RR1997 --> (16,6/31) --> 53,8%

MoE: High.

Close race, because I think that among the Labor voters, TNF will get a major percentage.

[Maxwell]

DemPGH holds a hefty lead at the moment (I have it at 62-38), but some races are looking interesting (Flo leading massively in the Pacific, RR1997 ahead by a good amount in the Midwest).

[Senator Cris]

With the projections method of previous posts, in the Midwest, we have a draw between TNF and his challenger RR1997: 50-50!

[windjammer]

With the projections method of previous posts, in the Midwest, we have a draw between TNF and his challenger RR1997: 50-50!

Oh please, not AGAIN a tie .

[Cassius]

I wouldn't read to much into vote percentages. For instance, the Northeast shows Bore with an 18 point lead over Deus; however, in raw vote terms, that's a lead of only 3 votes, with 60 percent of votes to come. I'd advise people to pay closer attention to raw vote statistics than to percentages.

[Lumine]

Excellent projections, Cris! The Senate election keeps getting interesting...

[Fritz]

For the Midwest Senate Race:

Voting by party.

FED (19,3% of total) --> (4/6) 66,7%
LAB (45,2% of total) --> (3/14) 21,4%
TPP (0% of total) --> (0/0) 0,0%
D-R (0% of total) --> (0/0) 0,0%
AAPRJD (9,7% of total) --> (1/3) 33,3%
Others (12,9% of total) --> (1/4) 25,0%
Ind (12,9% of total) --> (2/4) 50,0%

TOTAL --> (11/31) 35,4%

FED (19,3% of total) --> TNF (0/4) 0,0% RR1997 (4/4) 100,0%
LAB (45,2% of total) --> TNF (2/3) 66,7% RR1997 (1/3) 33,3%
AAPRJD (9,7% of total) --> TNF (1/3) 100,0% RR1997 (0/3) 0,0%
Others (12,9% of total) --> TNF (0/4) 0,0% RR1997 (1/4) 100,0%
Ind (12,9% of total) --> TNF (1/2) 50,0% RR1997 (1/2) 50,0%

TOTAL --> DemPGH (4/11) 36,4% RR1997 (7/11) 63,6%

Assuming that ALL the 31 registered will vote and considering that the current distribution of the vote among the parties will be the same, the projection is:

TNF --> (14,4/31) --> 46,2%
RR1997 --> (16,6/31) --> 53,8%

MoE: High.

Close race, because I think that among the Labor voters, TNF will get a major percentage.

What Labor member from the Midwest voted for RR1997?  I can't find one.


EDIT: Ah, now I see the problem.  TDAS04 recently registered as an independent, but my voter list has not been updated since he did that.  TDAS04 is independent, not Labor.

[Cranberry]

Did anyone expect Flo to lead that big? He's up 66% now.
Honestly, I didn't even expect him to lead, but to lead that big!

Pacific Senate Race:

Last Voter: IBBD

Flo (Lab-YT) - 8 / 66.7%
Superique (TPP-AK) - 2 / 16.7%
Tyrion (Lab-NM) - 1 / 8.4%
WI: Wolverine22 (Lab-CA) - 1 / 8.4%
Turnout - 12 / 40%

[SWE]

Northeast Assembly Race:
17% reporting

Round 1:
SWE (L-NY): 3
rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1
Dr. Cynic (L-PA): 1
Cincinnatus (TPP-NY):1
Alfred (L-RI): 1

SWE is elected

Round 2:
rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1
Dr. Cynic (L-PA): 1.61
Cincinnatus (TPP-NY): 2.22
Alfred (L-RI): 1

Cincinnatus is elected

Round 3:
rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1
Dr. Cynic (L-PA): 1.9
Napoleon (L-NY): .76
Alfred (L-RI): 1

Dr. Cynic is elected

Round 4:

rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1
Napoleon (L-NY): 1.49
Alfred (L-RI): 1

Napoleon is elected

Round 5:

rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1.08
Alfred (L-RI): 1
BaconBacon96 (DR-MA): .15
Deus Naturae (DR-NY): .06
Malcolm X (TPP-NY): .02

Malcolm X is eliminated

Round 6:

rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1.08
Alfred (L-RI): 1
BaconBacon96 (DR-MA): .18
Deus Naturae (DR-NY): .06

Deus is eliminated

Round 7:

rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1.08
Alfred (L-RI): 1
BaconBacon96 (DR-MA): .24

BaconBacon96 is eliminated

Round 8:

rpryor03 (F-NJ): 1.26
Alfred (L-RI): 1

rpryor03 is elected

Projected Assembly: SomebodyWhoExists, Dr. Cynic, Napoleon, Cincinnatus, rpryor03

Last voter Talleyrand

[Senator Cris]

Last vote counted: Arturo Belano

Turnout by party.

FED (28,6% of total) --> (24/50) 48,0%
LAB (28% of total) --> (22/49) 44,5%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> (4/12) 33,3%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> (6/12) 50,0%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> (2/6) 33,3%
Others (9,7% of total) --> (4/17) 23,5%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> (7/29) 24,1%

TOTAL --> (69/175) 39,4%

FED (28,6% of total) --> DemPGH (11/24) 45,8% SirNick (13/24) 54,2%
LAB (28% of total) --> DemPGH (22/22) 100,0% SirNick (0/22) 0,0%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> DemPGH (1/4) 25,0% SirNick (3/4) 75,0%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> DemPGH (0/6) 0,0% SirNick (6/6) 100,0%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> DemPGH (1/2) 50,0% SirNick (1/2) 50,0%
Others (9,7% of total) --> DemPGH (3/4) 75,0% SirNick (1/4) 25,0%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> DemPGH (4/7) 57,1% SirNick (3/7) 42,9%

TOTAL --> DemPGH (42/69) 60,9% SirNick (27/69) 39,1%

Assuming that ALL the 175 registered will vote and considering that the current distribution of the vote among the parties will be the same, the projection is:

DemPGH --> (107,2/175) --> 61,3%
SirNick --> (67,8/175) --> 38,7%

[Senator Cris]

For the Midwest Senate Race:

Turnout by party.

FED (19,3% of total) --> (4/6) 66,7%
LAB (41,9% of total) --> (4/13) 30,8%
TPP (0% of total) --> (0/0) 0,0%
D-R (0% of total) --> (0/0) 0,0%
AAPRJD (9,7% of total) --> (1/3) 33,3%
Others (12,9% of total) --> (1/4) 25,0%
Ind (16,1% of total) --> (3/5) 60,0%

TOTAL --> (13/31) 41,9%

FED (19,3% of total) --> TNF (0/4) 0,0% RR1997 (4/4) 100,0%
LAB (45,2% of total) --> TNF (4/4) 100,0% RR1997 (0/4) 0,0%
AAPRJD (9,7% of total) --> TNF (1/3) 100,0% RR1997 (0/3) 0,0%
Others (12,9% of total) --> TNF (0/4) 0,0% RR1997 (1/4) 100,0%
Ind (12,9% of total) --> TNF (1/3) 33,3% RR1997 (2/3) 66,7%

TOTAL --> TNF (6/13) 46,1% RR1997 (7/13) 53,9%

Assuming that ALL the 31 registered will vote and considering that the current distribution of the vote among the parties will be the same, the projection is:

TNF --> (17,7/31) --> 57,0%
RR1997 --> (13,3/31) --> 43,0%

[Lumine]

I think at this stage we can pretty much consider DemPGH to be ready to win and Tyrion to lose his race, but I'm hesitant to call that last one a "Labor-hold" since the party leadership was pretty interested in expulsing Flo some hours ago...

My apologies for not updating the tracker yet, I'll try to get on that as soon as I can!

[sentinel]

It is too soon to call this. We have more work to do.

[Talleyrand]

I think at this stage we can pretty much consider DemPGH to be ready to win and Tyrion to lose his race, but I'm hesitant to call that last one a "Labor-hold" since the party leadership was pretty interested in expulsing Flo some hours ago...

My apologies for not updating the tracker yet, I'll try to get on that as soon as I can!

Labor doesn't have an expulsion policy.