Lumine's Election and Political Tracker (Epilogue) - Tracker Closed

[sentinel]

By my count, and I'm not invalidating anyone, we have 42 DemPGH to 34 for SirNick in the final round. As of 6:54pm EST (last vote Deus).

[windjammer]

I have personally 45-30 (last poster: Deus). Bbut I may be wrong however, I have just counted one time.

[Lumine]

The tracker count goes 46-31 for the supposed final round (I managed to update the Presidential one, not the Senate tracker), and so far we have:

-44% Turnout.
-First Round shows DemPGH winning outright, 53.24% vs 38.96% for SirNick.

[Flake]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jf3dxUfKoqKydnOEVmd5WtQU6YP8rmE1TFLqBQQzPhg/edit?usp=sharing

Senate Elections updated (last vote cinyc)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RamaK3-hFJ-ULgOL-P_KduYv75TAo1cMlk4YgplShwA/edit#gid=0

Presidential Election updated (last vote ogre mage)

[sentinel]

FLo, your tracker is erroneous. You have less votes for me in round two than in round one.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's what I have (as of Winfield):

Final Round:

DemPGH: 52 (59.1%)
Sirnick: 36 (40.9%)

As it stands, Sirnick would need to capture around 75% of the likely outstanding voters in order to pull off an upset.

[sentinel]

Here's what I have (as of Winfield):

Final Round:

DemPGH: 52 (59.1%)
Sirnick: 36 (40.9%)

As it stands, Sirnick would need to capture around 75% of the likely outstanding voters in order to pull off an upset.

You assume the remainder breaks the same way. Percentages are deceptive in Atlasia, we only need 16 votes to tie DemPGH and another one to break him. I don't think voters want full Labor control of the White House, Senate and tie breaking vote.

[Maxwell]

I will only say this once and never again - I find it interesting that the Federalist Party, who voted in such away that almost knocked off their incumbent President because of his lack of fight for Federalist causes, when faced with the option of two candidates who, both are qualified, but one clearly had a better record on those causes, chose the more liberal option. Not all of them, but a very large chunk of them.

Although 16% of Federalists voting for Hagrid/Tmth, imaginary ticket, can't be a good sign for enthusiasm either way.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's what I have (as of Winfield):

Final Round:

DemPGH: 52 (59.1%)
Sirnick: 36 (40.9%)

As it stands, Sirnick would need to capture around 75% of the likely outstanding voters in order to pull off an upset.

You assume the remainder breaks the same way. Percentages are deceptive in Atlasia, we only need 16 votes to tie DemPGH and another one to break him. I don't think voters want full Labor control of the White House, Senate and tie breaking vote.

Well no...I'm assuming that around 40 more people vote. You'd need 16-17 to beat DemPGH + you'd have to hold even among the remaining 23-24, which means that you'd need an additional 11-12 votes. So, that's anywheere from 27-29 votes out of 40, aka 68-73% of outstanding voters. Of course, there could be a massive turnout bubble on the final day, but barring that, my projection stands.

[Maxwell]

And, then again, I endorsed TNF for stupid reasons, so I'm just a big ole' hypocrite

[Maxwell]

I will only say this once and never again - I find it interesting that the Federalist Party, who voted in such away that almost knocked off their incumbent President because of his lack of fight for Federalist causes, when faced with the option of two candidates who, both are qualified, but one clearly had a better record on those causes, chose the more liberal option. Not all of them, but a very large chunk of them.

Although 16% of Federalists voting for Hagrid/Tmth, imaginary ticket, can't be a good sign for enthusiasm either way.

Here's (one thing) that I found interesting: even though DemPGH currently has 44% of the Federalist Party's support, he would still be ahead in this race by several votes if all of them had voted for Sirnick. A rather odd dynamic. While it could ultimately change, as of now, it'd appear that the Federalists themselves aren't deciding this election (not that I don't appreciate their votes for DemPGH).

DemPGH has a very broad coalition of voters it seems.

[Adam Griffin]

I will only say this once and never again - I find it interesting that the Federalist Party, who voted in such away that almost knocked off their incumbent President because of his lack of fight for Federalist causes, when faced with the option of two candidates who, both are qualified, but one clearly had a better record on those causes, chose the more liberal option. Not all of them, but a very large chunk of them.

Although 16% of Federalists voting for Hagrid/Tmth, imaginary ticket, can't be a good sign for enthusiasm either way.

Here's (one thing) that I found interesting: even though DemPGH currently has 44% of the Federalist Party's support, he would still be ahead in this race by several votes if all of them had voted for Sirnick. A rather odd dynamic. While it could ultimately change, as of now, it'd appear that the Federalists themselves aren't deciding this election (not that I don't appreciate their votes for DemPGH).

DemPGH has a very broad coalition of voters it seems.

LOL, I just realized that I completely botched the math on that, essentially halving the effect. I thought it seemed too strange to be true.

If all Feds had voted for sirnick, then he'd be ahead 54-46%. That still speaks a lot about the coalitions, though.

[Napoleon]

I will only say this once and never again - I find it interesting that the Federalist Party, who voted in such away that almost knocked off their incumbent President because of his lack of fight for Federalist causes, when faced with the option of two candidates who, both are qualified, but one clearly had a better record on those causes, chose the more liberal option. Not all of them, but a very large chunk of them.

Although 16% of Federalists voting for Hagrid/Tmth, imaginary ticket, can't be a good sign for enthusiasm either way.

Here's (one thing) that I found interesting: even though DemPGH currently has 44% of the Federalist Party's support, he would still be ahead in this race by several votes if all of them had voted for Sirnick. A rather odd dynamic. While it could ultimately change, as of now, it'd appear that the Federalists themselves aren't deciding this election (not that I don't appreciate their votes for DemPGH).

DemPGH has a very broad coalition of voters it seems.

There's an interesting dynamic at play here. Sirnick hurt his candidacy by staying out of a feature office for four months. However, a large portion of voters are supporting the ticket due to running mate Dallasfan and his record as Sirnick's successor. And while in the past we have seen Labor candidates attacked for being partisan, DemPGH has always stood above the pettiness so that angle doesn't work this time, which is why that Riley kid tried to make it about windjammer. And the obnoxious antics from what Atlasia would have to consider the far right have supplanted Labor as the loudest, meaning that even though sirnick isn't associated strongly with those types, he doesn't have he benefit of an anti-Labor sentiment that was stronger in the past.

[ZuWo]

I can only speak for myself, but the reason why I'm not going to vote for SirNick/Dallasfan is twofold. Firstly, when he was Northeast Governor SirNick opened the regional voting booths to ratify federal amendments a few days late on several occasions in order to protest against the current ratification process. As a former Governor and as someone who opposes further centralization, I strongly disapprove of that.
Secondly, vice-presidential candidate Dallasfan voted for left-wing candidates on several occasions even when there was a more right-wing person running in the same election. His (and a couple of other D-R members') recent vote to endorse socialist Senator TNF for re-election was the straw that broke the camel's back.
I used to cast unenthusiastic votes for tickets that I perceived as less "left-wing" in past presidential elections. However, since I almost always regretted such votes I have decided to abstain this time.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I am no longer active in these elections, but as a Fed here was my thinking....
First- I do not know DemPGH at all,but have come to interact with Windjammer quite a bit via the Balance of Power game and I wanted to support him. Second- I have dealt with both SirNick and Dallasfan and I like them both, but I am no libertarian at all- my views are quite the contrary. I am a Fed here (one of the party founders) but I am a Democrat as well...I have far more in common with traditional liberals then with libertarians. However- I proudly voted write-in for Hagrid and Tmth for the first preference

I hope NC Yankee wins the election.....he's one of the finest fellows I've dealt with on this Forum and even though I do not have much of a horse in the Presidential race,I was sure to come back and vote for him- I hope others do as well

[Senator Cris]

Last vote counted: Velasco

Turnout by party:

FED (28,6% of total) --> (27/50) 54,0%
LAB (28% of total) --> (27/49) 55,1%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> (8/12) 66,7%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> (8/12) 66,7%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> (2/6) 33,3%
Others (9,7% of total) --> (7/17) 41,2%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> (11/29) 37,9%

TOTAL --> (90/175) 51,4%

Voting by party:

FED (28,6% of total) --> DemPGH (12/27) 44,4% SirNick (15/27) 55,6%
LAB (28% of total) --> DemPGH (27/27) 100,0% SirNick (0/27) 0,0%
TPP (6,9% of total) --> DemPGH (2/8) 25,0% SirNick (6/8) 75,0%
D-R (6,9% of total) --> DemPGH (0/8) 0,0% SirNick (8/8) 100,0%
AAPRJD (3,4% of total) --> DemPGH (1/2) 50,0% SirNick (1/2) 50,0%
Others (9,7% of total) --> DemPGH (6/7) 85,7% SirNick (1/7) 14,3%
Ind (16,6% of total) --> DemPGH (6/11) 54,5% SirNick (5/11) 45,5%

TOTAL --> DemPGH (54/90) 60% SirNick (36/90) 40%

Assuming that ALL the 175 registered will vote and considering that the current distribution of the vote among the parties will be the same, the projection is:

DemPGH --> (107,6/175) --> 61,5%
SirNick --> (67,4/175) --> 38,5%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I hope NC Yankee wins the election.....he's one of the finest fellows I've dealt with on this Forum and even though I do not have much of a horse in the Presidential race,I was sure to come back and vote for him- I hope others do as well

I appreciate that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The sentiments expressed by Zuwo and Clarence reflect to a large extent the sentiment amongst the Federalists who have voted for DemPGH either as one or the other sentiment or a combination of the two. Not having a Federalist in this race combined with the Laborites running DemPGH instead of someone else, meant that a lot of Federalists felt no cause of concern about the White House going to Labor. DemPGH, even when he was just considering running for At-Large Senate in December, was looked upon favorably as a possible candidate for that "Third Non-Federalist At-Large Senator" by the Party, he was a great VP and a fair administrator of the Senate.

I would also say to MAxwell, and as he subsequently acknowledged (whether it was sarcastic or sincere ), support for several hardcore Laborites, especially by Dallasfan himself, neutralized his greatest selling point as VP with regards to the Senate from the perspective of many Federalists. He would have been better off making his case directly to the Federalists and stating what he would or would not do as VP, which could have potentially saved several votes. Presuming that such would have done more damage then good was reasonable though, particularly not seeing ahead of time that it would be quite this bad even without that. Even then I was surprised that the discontent with that ticket ran so high, but perhaps this surprise was a false perception created by the endorsement vote. Prior to that endorsement vote, I thought DemPGH should a good chance at actually winning the Federalist endorsement vote outright or at least coming rather close. That initial perception was closer to the truth more so then the subsequent one in terms of overal Federalist support (kind of like Survey Atlasia's polling cycles this time, three days are less accurate then five, MAxwell, in spite of the election day length ).

Finally this ticket's base was too narrow and not even the TPP stayed united 100%. It had no regional diversity and even doubling up on NE, failed to deliver all the necessary votes even there. It had no connection to the Federalists at all, not even with a former member and thus had to rely on the merits of the two candidates on the ticket to win enough support from that Party. The problem is there again, both fit into a narrowly libertarian quadrant with one more conservative and the other mroe liberal and left little appeal to conservatives particulaly social conservatives and obviously the Laborites were not going to split on those issues or any for that matter post reconcilliation with Nappy and the decline of the internal opposition to DemPGH. They didn't take a solid stand on healthcare and eliminated another great selling point to Federalists (opposition to single payer) on the fiscal side. The lack of a controversial Labor candidate and inability to split labor, lack of a Federalist, or at least something to unite the Federalists in support of the ticket and even an inability to win several key votes (like all the TPPers or an Indy like Grumps), taken together, it is death by a thousand paper cuts.

[sentinel]

Cris, didn't X vote for me? He is Labor.

Also, ZuWo - I honestly have nothing to say if your complaint is that I opened a voting booth late? Regardless of how you count it (nationally or regionally), it is easier for the SOFE to administer the voting booth for federal elections. Regions should administer regional elections.

[windjammer]

Cris, didn't X vote for me? He is Labor.

Also, ZuWo - I honestly have nothing to say if your complaint is that I opened a voting booth late? Regardless of how you count it (nationally or regionally), it is easier for the SOFE to administer the voting booth for federal elections. Regions should administer regional elections.

Sirnick, X is TPP I think, but I'm not sure.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Cris, didn't X vote for me? He is Labor.

Also, ZuWo - I honestly have nothing to say if your complaint is that I opened a voting booth late? Regardless of how you count it (nationally or regionally), it is easier for the SOFE to administer the voting booth for federal elections. Regions should administer regional elections.

Was it really an intention to delay the booths as a protest, or was it an oversight?

[Senator Cris]

Voter List
Effective June 10, 2014

jdb

Northeast

NY

TPP

0

18-Jul-14

aka Mr. X

[sentinel]

Could have sworn that X changed to Labor when he re-registered.

Anyway, delaying booths was eh 90% oversight because I would forget or not see the thread. I think there may have been one thaf I delayed on?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Could have sworn that X changed to Labor when he re-registered.

Anyway, delaying booths was eh 90% oversight because I would forget or not see the thread. I think there may have been one thaf I delayed on?

I never noticed this particular incident, but if a large number of conservatives did, it might have been considered a bit remicisent of the same approach used by the rimjob supporters, though on a smaller scale obviously.

Another paper cut I suppose.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Could have sworn that X changed to Labor when he re-registered.

Don't feel bad I was thinking the same, though having him colored in as red on my Regional Senate tracker probably contributed to the mistake.