What does a Michelle Nunn win look like?
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  What does a Michelle Nunn win look like?
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Author Topic: What does a Michelle Nunn win look like?  (Read 717 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: May 14, 2014, 10:33:17 PM »

If Michelle Nunn wins, how will Georgia counties be colored? Will she pick up a lot of rural south Georgia counties or does she win metro Atlanta to cross the finish line?

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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2014, 10:50:35 PM »



She would be expected to win the districts in Red.  She will lose the one's in Blue.  What she needs to do is reduce the margin in all the districts in sky blue to win.  No need to win them, but make them much closer.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2014, 10:57:23 PM »

Stuffed ballot boxes and dimpled chads. 
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badgate
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2014, 11:54:44 PM »

Stuffed ballot boxes and dimpled chads. 

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2014, 02:19:53 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2014, 02:31:03 AM by Sen. Griffin (LAB-NB) »

I made this not too long ago as an attempt to see what a uniform swing from 2010 would have to look like in order to win (apologies again for reversed colors), and then modified some of the softer local & traditional Dem/national & recent Rep counties to be more accurate of the conditions:



As far as a more nuanced (and likely) outcome: she'll need to post huge swings in south GA, and have some pretty impressive rebounds in parts of north GA outside the metro as well.

The Black Belt obviously will need to be intact.

The bellwether county that I'll be looking at on election night is Lowndes (Valdosta) - it's consistently tracked about 2 points more Republican than the state in presidential elections since 1984, so if she's at 48% or more there, it'll be looking good. There'll be several others that are either lesser bellwethers or will be good indicators of how she's performing statewide:

Henry
Meriwether
Houston
Wilkes
McIntosh
Telfair

I actually think Nunn can narrowly lose Cobb and Gwinnett while still winning - but the Republican will need to be held to a plurality (something like 49 R, 48 D, 3 L).

* I noticed a couple of shading discreps in my original scenarios and tweaked a bit; if anyone sees any others, then please let me know
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old timey villain
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2014, 09:35:42 AM »

Cool maps!

At this point I would absolutely love to see Nunn win Cobb or Gwinnett and I think they're actually in reach for Dems now (especially Gwinnett) but probably only during a presidential election year when turnout is higher.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2014, 09:43:59 AM »

Running up score in Middle Georgia and parts of South Georgia is critical, as well as getting good turnout in Atlanta Metro, the latter of which will be very difficult.
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Never
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2014, 10:59:22 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2014, 11:01:23 AM by Never Convinced »

First off, if Michelle Nunn wins, I'm assuming that she will do so in November. It would be very difficult for her to defeat a Republican in a runoff.

I have reservations about claiming that she can win over traditionally Democratic counties that are now Republican. Even though her father Sam Nunn won them, voters have short memories, something to keep in mind.

A Michelle Nunn victory map would probably start with the same counties that either Jim Martin won in 2008 or Barack Obama won in 2012. Of course, Nunn would need to build on that. She is probably going to win DeKalb, Fulton (city of Atlanta), and Clayton counties in metro Atlanta from the get-go. Next, she needs Cobb county, especially considering that Martin won it while getting just 46% statewide. If she can win Cobb, she will likely win Henry County, which has been fairly close recently. In order to get closer to victory, Nunn would then have to appeal to outer suburban counties that have voted for Democrats (like Martin) on occasion, such as Fayette, Rockdale, and Newton. Still, all of these aforementioned counties in the Atlanta area aren't enough for a victory. She has to win Gwinnett county, or at least make it a tie. In my opinion, this county is the lynchpin. Gwinnett has a significant minority population favorable to Democrats that has boomed in recent years, but despite this, it has not voted for a Democrat in quite some time. If she can't deliver there, even with just 49-50% of the vote, I don't think that she can beat the Republican nominee.

Nunn will also need to win a broad swath of counties throughout South Georgia. She would win Bibb county (Macon) and the surrounding counties along with Chatam (Savannah) and neighboring Liberty county. I think her hardest time is going to be in Southeast Georgia in the counties bordering Alabama. Focusing on the Columbus area, it seems that Nunn is assured Muscogee county, but that Chattahoochee county, which comprises North Columbus, will be tougher. Martin won it in 2008, but Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson put it in his column in 2010, and Romney won it in 2012. I would expect Nunn to win this county if she can get a majority of the vote statewide.

I'm sure that I didn't list all of the counties that Nunn would win should she become Georgia's next senator, but I hope that this gives a good idea of what one would expect. Nunn could definitely win, but it wouldn't be an easy path, considering that some of the necessary counties for her didn't vote for Democrats in years with a political climate more favorable to their party. She would have to significantly overperform compared to Democrats who ran in Georgia in 2008 and 2012. If this were a presidential election year, it would probably be much easier for Nunn to achieve victory, but based on how many counties that have voted Republican in this state are a bit soft in their support, particularly in metro Atlanta, I wouldn't write off Nunn just yet.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2014, 11:10:07 AM »

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