What does a Michelle Nunn win look like?

[Never]

First off, if Michelle Nunn wins, I'm assuming that she will do so in November. It would be very difficult for her to defeat a Republican in a runoff.

I have reservations about claiming that she can win over traditionally Democratic counties that are now Republican. Even though her father Sam Nunn won them, voters have short memories, something to keep in mind.

A Michelle Nunn victory map would probably start with the same counties that either Jim Martin won in 2008 or Barack Obama won in 2012. Of course, Nunn would need to build on that. She is probably going to win DeKalb, Fulton (city of Atlanta), and Clayton counties in metro Atlanta from the get-go. Next, she needs Cobb county, especially considering that Martin won it while getting just 46% statewide. If she can win Cobb, she will likely win Henry County, which has been fairly close recently. In order to get closer to victory, Nunn would then have to appeal to outer suburban counties that have voted for Democrats (like Martin) on occasion, such as Fayette, Rockdale, and Newton. Still, all of these aforementioned counties in the Atlanta area aren't enough for a victory. She has to win Gwinnett county, or at least make it a tie. In my opinion, this county is the lynchpin. Gwinnett has a significant minority population favorable to Democrats that has boomed in recent years, but despite this, it has not voted for a Democrat in quite some time. If she can't deliver there, even with just 49-50% of the vote, I don't think that she can beat the Republican nominee.

Nunn will also need to win a broad swath of counties throughout South Georgia. She would win Bibb county (Macon) and the surrounding counties along with Chatam (Savannah) and neighboring Liberty county. I think her hardest time is going to be in Southeast Georgia in the counties bordering Alabama. Focusing on the Columbus area, it seems that Nunn is assured Muscogee county, but that Chattahoochee county, which comprises North Columbus, will be tougher. Martin won it in 2008, but Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson put it in his column in 2010, and Romney won it in 2012. I would expect Nunn to win this county if she can get a majority of the vote statewide.

I'm sure that I didn't list all of the counties that Nunn would win should she become Georgia's next senator, but I hope that this gives a good idea of what one would expect. Nunn could definitely win, but it wouldn't be an easy path, considering that some of the necessary counties for her didn't vote for Democrats in years with a political climate more favorable to their party. She would have to significantly overperform compared to Democrats who ran in Georgia in 2008 and 2012. If this were a presidential election year, it would probably be much easier for Nunn to achieve victory, but based on how many counties that have voted Republican in this state are a bit soft in their support, particularly in metro Atlanta, I wouldn't write off Nunn just yet.