What does a Michelle Nunn win look like?

[Adam Griffin]

I made this not too long ago as an attempt to see what a uniform swing from 2010 would have to look like in order to win (apologies again for reversed colors), and then modified some of the softer local & traditional Dem/national & recent Rep counties to be more accurate of the conditions:



As far as a more nuanced (and likely) outcome: she'll need to post huge swings in south GA, and have some pretty impressive rebounds in parts of north GA outside the metro as well.

The Black Belt obviously will need to be intact.

The bellwether county that I'll be looking at on election night is Lowndes (Valdosta) - it's consistently tracked about 2 points more Republican than the state in presidential elections since 1984, so if she's at 48% or more there, it'll be looking good. There'll be several others that are either lesser bellwethers or will be good indicators of how she's performing statewide:

Henry
Meriwether
Houston
Wilkes
McIntosh
Telfair

I actually think Nunn can narrowly lose Cobb and Gwinnett while still winning - but the Republican will need to be held to a plurality (something like 49 R, 48 D, 3 L).

* I noticed a couple of shading discreps in my original scenarios and tweaked a bit; if anyone sees any others, then please let me know