EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its a notorious gravy train.

[Keystone Phil]

Its a notorious gravy train.

Not quite like being an Italian MP though. Or at least I assume nothing is as generous.

[adma]

Well, re Clegg, it could be worse (cf. Jeremy Thorpe)

[justfollowingtheelections]

Podemos and their young leader Pablo Iglesias confirmed they are joining GUE-NGL.


http://www.publico.es/politica/523095/podemos-acuerda-con-tsipras-entrar-en-el-grupo-de-la-izquierda-unitaria-de-la-eurocamara

According to the above article GUE-NGL will get all 6 of the IU seats, but perhaps the writer made a mistake.
I'm interested in seeing whether the success of Podemos and IU and the failure of PSOE can lead to changes in Spanish politics.

It is quite interesting that of the 50-51 seats GUE-NGL appears to be getting, 44-45 are in Eurozone countries (the other 6 are 3 in the Czech Rep, 2 in Sweden and 1 in N. Ireland and there is also a Bulgarian MEP but she was elected in Greece with SYRIZA) where they easily win 3rd place.

Also, the bios of the Greek MEPs (I couldn't help but laugh when I read the bios of the ND MEPs):

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http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.politics&id=1970

[Tayya]

It might interest some of you that Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson said on TV today that the party would "only" consider co-operating with UKIP and the Danish People's Party, whatever that means. Of course, he could always renege on that - which might be more likely than not.

The Sweden Democrats are between a rock and a hard place - they're too "dirty" for the softer, more populist parties such as UKIP and the True Finns, but aren't enthusiastic about being connected to Front National and the PVV. Their Youth League, which is more nationalist, would however love to see SD co-operate with Wilders and Le Pen.

In the end, they might end up outside a group, which would essentially eliminate their influence as their candidates aren't exactly strong enough to make much noise on their own.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It might interest some of you that Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson said on TV today that the party would "only" consider co-operating with UKIP and the Danish People's Party, whatever that means. Of course, he could always renege on that - which might be more likely than not.

The Sweden Democrats are between a rock and a hard place - they're too "dirty" for the softer, more populist parties such as UKIP and the True Finns, but aren't enthusiastic about being connected to Front National and the PVV. Their Youth League, which is more nationalist, would however love to see SD co-operate with Wilders and Le Pen.

In the end, they might end up outside a group, which would essentially eliminate their influence as their candidates aren't exactly strong enough to make much noise on their own.

I really don't think UKIP will be able to form a group, especially if they lose Lega Nord and the True Finns.  The problem with nationalists is that it's really difficult for them to work with each other.  The ones that are most worried about their image will join Cameron's group, the ones that couldn't care less about their image will join Le Pen's group, while GD, NPD and Jobbik will sit on the side wondering why no one wants them.  It will be rather strange if personalities such as Farage or Grillo fail to find a group, but I can see it happening.

Huffington post by the way has a ranking of Europe's most dangerous far-right parties.

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[Gustaf]

If UKIP has trouble forming a group I don't think they'll object to SD. They were fine with Lega Nord and LAOS in the past after all.

I think it is the correct move by SD, association with FN and those guys would hurt them in Sweden. It seems silly to commit so publicly though, that worsens your negotiation position.

[Tender Branson]

The KNP (Poland) might join the new far-right EAF group, the "Standard" reports.

http://derstandard.at/2000001574429/EU-Wahl-Polnischer-EU-Skeptiker-strebt-Fraktion-mit-FPOe-an

While the Sweden Democrats have ruled it out.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout map:



EU-wide turnout was 43.1% (+0.1%)

[Tender Branson]

From the SORA election-day analysis (our version of an "Exit Poll"):

"Austria should leave the EU" - by party

Green voters: 3% Yes, 97% No
ÖVP voters: 6% Yes, 93% No, 2% undecided
NEOS voters: 8% Yes, 93% No
SPÖ voters: 14% Yes, 82% No, 3% Undecided
FPÖ voters: 62% Yes, 34% No, 4% Undecided

Total: 21% Yes, 77% No, 2% Undecided

(not always 100% because of rounding)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

FPÖ voters: 62% Yes, 34% No, 4% Undecided

Only 62%?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh wait... with all votes counted it changed again, lol

PO: 32,13%
PiS: 31,78%
SLD-UP: 9,44%
NP: 7,15%
PSL: 6,8%

No change in number of seats won

Still good news.

A fact that PiS has almost won the election and, by low turnout, a fringe group get 5 seats, including a guy who just recently said that "women enjoy being raped and only pretends to resist", is hardly good news for me.

Not as bad as France, but still.

[Franzl]

FPÖ voters: 62% Yes, 34% No, 4% Undecided

Only 62%?

I guess it's possible to hate immigrants without opposing the EU. A bit odd, though.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ voters: 62% Yes, 34% No, 4% Undecided

Only 62%?

I guess it's possible to hate immigrants without opposing the EU. A bit odd, though.

Yepp, many FPÖ-voters actually like the open borders thing when they drive to vacation in Italy and cuts in roaming fees etc. - so not all want to get out of the EU ...

[Simfan34]

Die PARTEI won a seat!

....what?

Voting for a joke party is the most stupid thing anyone can do.

Voting for Die PARTEI effectively reduced the chance of the NPD winning a second seat.

In any case, PARTEI leader Martin Sonneborn has announced that the'yre going to keep their campaign promise of resigning their seat every 30 days, so that any of the 60 PARTEI candidates on their list gets a chance to serve for a month in the European Parliament. Sonneborn said he's gonna use his 30 days to prepare himself for his impending resignation.

...which makes sense financially as well. Everyone of them is going to draw 8000 Euros a month for six months after their one month term...
Of course, I see no valid definition of "joke party" that applies to the PARTEI but not to any of the multi-seat parties. As Sonneborn himself rightly said, "I don't think we're the craziest outfit to win a seat today."

That's a racket! You mean to say Die PARTEI is going to cost 3 million Euros? That's 48,000 Euros for six months- a year's salary! I ought to have gotten on the list!

[freek]

Will the far right get his group?

I guess the UKIP and Afd will never caucuse with them.

It actually looks slightly better for Le Pen/Wilders than Farage, I reckon. This looks rather certain: EAF will have FN with 24, PVV with 4, FPÖ with 4, SD with 2 and VB with 1.
The EFD will have UKIP with 24, Lithuanian TT with 2, Svobodní with 1 and SGP with 1.

SGP will probably join ECR. The party was refused entry in the ECR 5 years ago because of its ban on party membership for women. This has been sorted out, women are allowed to join the SGP now (and 2 months ago the first female SGP municipal councillor has been elected).

[Tender Branson]

Some "change maps" for Austria by district:

ÖVP (%-change compared with 2009 election)



SPÖ (%-change compared with 2009 election)



FPÖ (%-change compared with 2009 election)



Greens (%-change compared with 2009 election)



BZÖ (%-change compared with 2009 election)



Turnout 2014



Turnout (%-change compared with 2009 election)

[Tender Branson]

Some points that are worth noting:

* the turnout divide between North-Eastern and Western/Southern Austria.

* The SPÖ's gains in Carinthia.

* The ÖVP's losses in Styria and - important for this year because of the coming state elections - in Vorarlberg.

* The Green gains in Vorarlberg - important for this year because of the coming state elections - in Vorarlberg.

* The ÖVP gains in Northern Burgenland (state elections next year).

* The FPÖ's gains in Styria (already seen in the federal elections last year) and in Carinthia.

* The BZÖ's death all over Austria, especially in Carinthia (-> their voters went to SPÖ and FPÖ).

* The turnout increase in Southern Austria.

* The fact that the FPÖ gained the least percentage points in Vienna.

[Tender Branson]

Quite a few resignations already around Europe after some poor EP2014 showings.

PSOE leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba
Leader of the Irish Labour Party Eamon Gilmore
MSZP (Hungarian Socialists) leader Attila Mesterházy
Romanian National Liberal Party leader Crin Antonescu

In Denmark the pressure is mounting on the Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen, but for now it looks like he will try to fight through it.

In Austria, the BZÖ-leader could step down (it would be better if the party just dissolved alltogether).

Also, Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) is under some internal pressure for the weak SPÖ-result.

[Diouf]

Today the leaders of the European Parliament gather to discuss the outcome and the process of finding the new Commission President. This evening the European Council will meet to discuss the same things.

As expected, David Cameron is trying to gather a blocking minority against any of the front runners appointed by the European parties; this mainly means blocking Juncker at the moment. The only supporter who has publicly supported this block so far is Viktor Orbán, who is probably not to pleased about some of the comments regarding his party from many in the top of EPP, including Juncker.

Downing Street also announced that Cameron had called Chancellor Merkel, President Grybauskaite, PM Orban, PM Reinfeldt, PM Bratusek and Taoiseach Kenny to discuss the process. Sources say that he believe that they are his main potential allies. However, I doubt whether Merkel would really want to dump Juncker, and Kenny has supported Juncer publicly at the EPP conference in Dublin where he was elected.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-calls-to-european-leaders-ahead-of-informal-european-council



Faymann supports Juncker as the EPP won the election

[Velasco]

Podemos and their young leader Pablo Iglesias confirmed they are joining GUE-NGL.


http://www.publico.es/politica/523095/podemos-acuerda-con-tsipras-entrar-en-el-grupo-de-la-izquierda-unitaria-de-la-eurocamara

According to the above article GUE-NGL will get all 6 of the IU seats, but perhaps the writer made a mistake.
I'm interested in seeing whether the success of Podemos and IU and the failure of PSOE can lead to changes in Spanish politics.

http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.politics&id=1970

That article is wrong. The 'Izquierda Plural' list won 6 seats (4 IU, 1 ICV, 1 Anova). The IU and Anova (AGE, Galicia) elected MEPs will join GUE-NGL, but ICV is member of the European Greens and will join their group as usual.

I don't know how the success of Podemos will change Spanish politics, but I think it's impossible that things will remain the same. Pablo Iglesias may be 'radical', 'demagogue', 'messianic' or whatever but I am happy for the Podemos result because the Spanish political class needs a kick on the ass, including the 'official' alternatives for the PP-PSOE rule (the ambiguous UPyD and the PCE-controlled IU). Podemos ("We Can") was born as a political party only 3 or 4 months ago and is still under construction. There's a lot of enthusiasm among its membership and they ran an excellent campaign with very little money. Podemos and IU had talks before the elections, but they ran separately because IU rejected a Podemos' proposal on open primaries to elect the candidates (PCE's hierarchy abhors such things). I think the result of IU and Podemos running in coalition would not have been so good (they got 18% running separately). The Pablo Iglesias' party managed to attract many abstentionists. Podemos can be considered a heir and a consequence of the 15M Movement of 2011 and perhaps Pablo Iglesias may become in the Spanish Tsipras.

The election result has had consequences in PSOE. Rubalcaba called for an extraordinary party convention and will quit from PSOE's leadership. Criticism arose from potential candidates like Carme Chacón and Eduardo Madina, because they want open primaries before the party convention. Apparently, Rubalcaba's decision to call PSOE's convention before the primaries was due to pressures from the Andalusian premier Susana Díaz. PSOE had a decent result in its traditional stronghold and Díaz is one of the strongest contenders for national leadership. Susana Díaz will play with advantage in a convention, because she controls the main party's federation which has a lot of delegates. Postponing the primaries makes no sense if you want to open the party and recover people's confidence -in my opinion, this decision is a fiasco-. Anyway the establishment works according its own logic and interests.

[freek]

Dutch results, still preliminary (three municipalities counted their votes yesterday, as part of an experiment with vote counting on a central location on the day after the elections). Also, the postal votes are not included yet:



CDA won a 5th seat because of their alliance with CU/SGP
PvdA won a 3rd seat because of their alliance with GroenLinks

[swl]

Was Godfrey Bloom running for these elections?

[Diouf]

The outcome of the meeting between the EP group leaders:

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http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=56crpz52&headline=EU_parliament_leaders_rally_round_Juncker_for_top_job

[swl]

The outcome of the meeting between the EP group leaders:

The MEPs know what's at stake here, if Juncker becomes the Commission President it will be an unwritten rule for the next elections and it will benefit them on the long term.

I think Cameron is alone on this one... Maybe he will manage to get Orban with him, but even him in the EPP so I expect him to support the EPP candidate.