EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[EPG]

Politics is all about these perceptions, the pacts between voters who identify with and respect politicians, and politicians who identify with and respect each other. As is clear from European Parliament groups, the details of policies matter very little at all.

Unnecessary lecture is unnecessary.

That is not a very polite response.

I merely noted that self-perception does indeed matter in politics. It is, as you might say, reality.

[ObserverIE]

Things developed quite quickly it seems...

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http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/

Crowley has had the FF whip removed over this move.

Doing a solo run to ally with the Tories was "een brug te ver" for FF, for historical-cultural reasons as much as ideological ones.

The combination of economic centrism, social conservatism by European standards, and less than total enthusiasm for further European integration means that FF doesn't naturally fit into any of the EP groups.

Apart from immigration issues, this combo makes FF identical to the DPP, who are already in the group.

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

FF were actually stranded in the then UEN group with Alleanza Nazionale, the DFP and LNNK from Latvia between 2004 and 2009 after the Gaullists left, in spite of the best efforts of the national FF leadership who wanted to get into ALDE after the 2004 elections. It was Crowley and some of the other then-MEPs who wouldn't agree to the move because they quite liked being biggish fish in a small pond. By 2009, AN were also leaving and the conciliatory Ahern had been replaced as FF leader by the more abrasive Cowen. The result was that Crowley & Co were decanted, kicking and screaming all the way, into ALDE.

I would have thought a closer analogue for FF than DFP would be Keskusta in Finland (or Centerpartiet in Sweden before it declined into irrelevancy). Centrist but not especially "liberal". In addition there would be similarities to CiU, PNV, or even the SNP as "regional" nationalist movements.

[politicus]

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

Originally yes, but increasingly less so - their present appeal is much broader and in many ways they are trying to fill the position FF traditionally had in Irish politics (not that I think they will succeed in this, its a tall order).

[ObserverIE]

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

Originally yes, but increasingly less so - their present appeal is much broader and in many ways they are trying to fill the position FF traditionally had in Irish politics (not that I think they will succeed in this, its a tall order).

That would require them to swallow most of the SD vote and define themselves against Venstre/Conservatives (the FG analogue) rather than be allied with it. I don't see it either.

Parties here have kept well away from immigration issues up until now (even in the middle of a recession with sizeable out-migration of Irish citizens) and I don't see FF as being willing to go there.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Off topic, but I'm confused wrt the Netherlands results - how did CDA get less votes than D66 but more seats? I thought this was PR, not some FPTP silliness...

[politicus]

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

Originally yes, but increasingly less so - their present appeal is much broader and in many ways they are trying to fill the position FF traditionally had in Irish politics (not that I think they will succeed in this, its a tall order).

That would require them to swallow most of the SD vote and define themselves against Venstre/Conservatives (the FG analogue) rather than be allied with it. I don't see it either.

Parties here have kept well away from immigration issues up until now (even in the middle of a recession with sizeable out-migration of Irish citizens) and I don't see FF as being willing to go there.

The view of immigration is one of the differences between Danish and Irish society (the level of secularization, historical strength of the left wing and size of the welfare state being other important ones).

Still, the strategic goal of the DPP leadership is to become the broad, national party of Denmark by cutting into the Liberals lower middle class/working class support in provincial Denmark and reducing them to the party of the affluent middle class (=FG) and relegating SD to a much smaller party (=Irish Labour) by taking their remaining working class voters and reducing them to a party of public employees.

The means to do this is a nationalist, populist message, that's somewhat leftist without really being it, but just enough to represent "the little guy". Euroscepticism, "Danishness", family values and cultural Christianity are also important parts of the platform. Their basis is increasingly small town and rural Denmark, with a much lower support in the capital area.

So there are clear similarities, but of course such parallels ls should not be taking too far.

The DPP leadership has an SD-DPP alliance as a preferred option "when a new generation takes over" in SD. That would make the Liberals their main rivals.

Whether this is possible is of course a matter of opinion. Still, I think its fair to say that "FF with xenophobia" would be a good description of where they want to be.

[freek]

Off topic, but I'm confused wrt the Netherlands results - how did CDA get less votes than D66 but more seats? I thought this was PR, not some FPTP silliness...

CDA was in an electoral alliance with CU/SGP, or as Dutch electoral law calls it: "combination of lists". This means that initially CDA & CU/SGP are seen as 1 list, when seats are apportioned, using the D'Hondt method. CDA+CU/SGP had enough votes for 7 seats.
Then, there is a second division, where for alliances seats are apportioned for the separate lists. The largest remainder / Hare-Niemeyer method is used. For this, a new alliance quota is calculated.

The CDA+CU/SGP together had 1.086.609 votes and 7 seats, so the quota is  155.229,86
CDA had 721.766 votes. 721.766/quota = 4,65 seats
CU/SGP had 364.843 votes. 364.843/quota = 2,35 seats.

CDA has the largest remainder -> CDA 5 seats, CU/SGP 2 seats.

Something similar happened for PvdA, which had 3 seats because of its alliance with GroenLinks, while SP had more votes and 2 seats.

[Diouf]

The final results at the deadline for creating groups for the beginning of the new EP yesterday. Chairs/co-chairs of the groups have also been elected:

221 - EPP -  Manfred Weber (CSU)
191 - S&D - Temporarily Martin Schulz (SPD), will be Gianni Pittella (PD) once Schulz is EP prez
 70  - ECR  - Syed Kamall (Conservatives)
 67  - ALDE  - Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD)
 52  - GUE-NGL - Gabriele Zimmer (Linke)
 50  - Greens/EFA - Philippe Lamberts (Ecolo) and Rebecca Harms (Grünen)
 48  - EFD  -  Nigel Farage (UKIP) and David Borrelli (M5S)
 52  - NI

[justfollowingtheelections]

Geert Wilders has announced that the EAF won't be able to create a group before the start of the new parliament. However, he says that he is still optimistic about a group being created later this year.

Is this possible?  I was under the impression that new groups could not be formed after the deadline (which is today if I am not mistaken).

[justfollowingtheelections]

There has always been emerging new groups and old collapsing especially before 2004. They can not get any comittee chairs until 25 years when the things are reorganized.

25 years? I have a feeling that's not what you meant to say.

I was referring to articles such as this one according to which they missed the deadline:
http://www.euractiv.com/video/europe-freedom-and-direct-democracy-farages-new-group-eu-parliament-50920

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I am just a little confused whether they can form a group at a later date or not.

[swl]

So Juncker it is. As Le Monde said: "The person who has as visceral opponents the British Eurosceptic David Cameron and the Hungarian ultra-nationalist Viktor Orban cannot be a bad guy."

I often disagree with them, but this time I think this article from Open Europe if worth reading for those who wonder what's next for the UK: http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Article/Page/en/LIVE?id=20306&page=FlashAnalysis#

[Diouf]

The vote in the EP on Juncker will be on the 16th July, and the European Council will have an informal dinner that evening to decide on the remaining posts if Juncker is accepted. These are the President of the European Council, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and perhaps a permanent leader of the Eurogroup and other importants posts in the Commission.

[EPG]

Childersing would involve quitting after your party stops being omniopposition omnipopular rockstars. This case is extremely unseemly haste.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/12/why-good-europeans-despair-jean-claude-juncker-commission

[Velasco]

Jean-Claude Juncker has been confirmed president of the Commission, winning 422 votes out of 751 in the EP. He collected votes from the EPP (including Orbán), the S&D (except Labour and PSOE), most of ALDE and even some Greens. The Spanish socialists voted against Juncker by petition of Pedro Sánchez, the new PSOE leader elected on Sunday in a primary held amongst the militancy. Some veterans MEPs like Ramón Jáuregui -who stated that "it wasn't an easy decision"- were restless because they say they didn't want to vote in the same way as Marine Le Pen, but they obeyed the new leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

[Velasco]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

I'm afraid I was deceived by a false friend (indeed, 'militancia' and 'miltancy' are not exactly the same thing). I guess 'membership' is correct too. Anyway, the PSOE 'activists' elected a new leader called Pedro Sánchez Castejón (42), who defeated Eduardo Madina (38) and other candidate from the left faction . He's economist, skillful in political marketing and has been an unknown backbencher to date. It's possible that he's a man of the Andalusia premier, Susana Díaz. He received huge support in that region and also other regional leaders backed his candidacy. Sánchez claims that his models are Felipe González and Matteo Renzi.   

[You kip if you want to...]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

I'm afraid I was deceived by a false friend (indeed, 'militancia' and 'miltancy' are not exactly the same thing). I guess 'membership' is correct too. Anyway, the PSOE 'activists' elected a new leader called Pedro Sánchez Castejón (42), who defeated Eduardo Madina (38) and other candidate from the left faction . He's economist, skillful in political marketing and has been an unknown backbencher to date. It's possible that he's a man of the Andalusia premier, Susana Díaz. He received huge support in that region and also other regional leaders backed his candidacy. Sánchez claims that his models are Felipe González and Matteo Renzi.    

Definitely OT, but tell me about this Podemos. Are they a bit like Syriza? What effect are they having on the PSOE and the PP?

[Velasco]

Oh yes, they have many programmatic coincidences with Syriza. The Economist defines Podemos as the "internet-savvy" equivalent in Spain of the Greek 'radical' left, which The Very Serious paper says it's far-left. Others define Podemos as "left-wing anti-austerity" or a "left-wing party with a far-left base" The effect caused by Podemos I'd say is something like a conmotion and  last polls indicate the party is at a popularity peak. PP and the right have chosen frontal attack, criticising the "far-left populism" and some Pablo Iglesias statements on ETA (he said terrorism has a political motivation and the right says that's a justification). Also, they claim that Podemos and Iglesias have been financed by Venezuela (the EP campaign was cheap and financed by internet crowfunding, according to Podemos). I think PP hopes that the fear of Podemos might mobilise abstentionists in the right, which damaged seriously the ruling party on May 25. The PSOE was directly affected by Podemos, but I wouldn't be good for them using the same tactic. Pedro Sánchez, the new leader-elect, has stated that Podemos is a "respectable force" but criticising the "populistic" economic proposals, because he considers "they might lead Spain to the Crash of 1929" and destroy the economy. I guess that gives an idea of how PSOE will approach the problem. Podemos calls the two ruling parties "La Casta" (The Caste). One of the first effects caused by the surge of Podemos, aside Rubalcaba retirement for the bad result, is the enforcement of primaries and other sorts of 'direct democracy' inside PSOE and IU. The last party disdained open primaries because the IU leadership considered them "an American invention", but they have changed their minds and gave more power to young deputy Alberto Garzón in order to approach Podemos.

It's not sure if there will be a left-wing coalition between IU, Podemos and other parties in the forthcoming elections. On the other hand, such coalition might not have the same result achieved in the EP elections separately; some of Podemos voters might not like it. One of the possible explanations of the Podemos' success is the so-called 'volatile left', a concept coined in 2007 by sociologist César Molinas (link below). According to him, there's a wide and heterogeneous group of left-wing voters disenchanted and uncomfortable with the 'institutional left' (PSOE and IU) which oscillates between both parties and abstention. The 'volatile left' has as common dennominators: a) outright rejection of PP and the right; and b) disdain for PSOE, a party to which they vote occasionally covering their noses. That theory is somewhat controversial for some sociologists, but I think it can explain the mobilisation in favour of Podemos in the last EP elections.

http://elpais.com/diario/2007/11/11/opinion/1194735611_850215.html

It's quite interesting the last CIS survey, which shows that support for Podemos is widespread across social classes, whereas there's a negative correlation between income and support for PSOE. Podemos is particularly strong amongst young, urban and educated people (between 18 and 34), but not only. It also has a good share amongst not so young people (34-54) and little amongst the elder (65+). PP has exactly the opposite age group distribution; extremely weak in the younger and strong in the elder.  According to CIS, amongst Podemos' voters unemployed have a share similar to the current unemployment rate (26.5%), but the new party is very strong amongst precarious workers that perceive that likely they are going to lose their current jobs (23.5%).

[justfollowingtheelections]

Thanks for the info Velasco.  I am definitely a Podemos supporter now.

[minionofmidas]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

[Middle-aged Europe]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

So, he's breaking his campaign promise of resigning his seat after 30 days in parliament? Just like any party, DIE PARTEI is just after the power and the money!!!

[Velasco]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

So, he's breaking his campaign promise of resigning his seat after 30 days in parliament? Just like any party, DIE PARTEI is just after the power and the money!!!

Rebuilt the Wall in Berlin now.

[Velasco]

Thanks for the info Velasco.  I am definitely a Podemos supporter now.

I have mixed feelings and I'm ambivalent about Podemos. Trying to explain why would be definitely off-topic and, in any case, I need some time to clarify my own position.

[swl]

It appears now that the decision to delay the choice for the top-EU posts was quite fortunate, and the Mogherini - Thorning-Schmidt is in danger, at least the first one.

Mogherini was already rejected by a number of countries for being too pro-Russian. After the last events, the opposition is becoming much stronger. Also, Italia wanted the post of Foreigns Affairs and Security to bring the topic of illegal immigration to the fore, and it appears now that the European diplomacy will have to focus instead on the relation with Russia and, to a lesser extent, on the Middle-East. The name of Elisabeth Guigou is circulating and it's quite a plausible option. And since she is a Socialist like Mogherini, Thorning-Schmidt would probably keep the EU council job.