EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

Looks like it will be Tusk/Mogherini after all:

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/eu-gipfel-kreis-wird-enger-bruessel-entscheidet-ueber-top-jobs/82.925.856

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/30/polish-prime-minister-donald-tusk-president-european-council

Helle Thorning-Schmidt has ruled herself out for any EU top-job.

[Јas]

[Velasco]

LOL, glorious news! Cañete has been appointed Commisioner for Climate Action and Energy. Definetely, the EC is a joke. As we say here, que Dios nos coja confesados.

[swl]

I think most of the success of this commission will depend on the vice-presidents. These 'super-commissioners' are a new thing, we will see how it works.

As for Canete, he was the candidate put forward by the Spanish goverment, so Juncker had to chose him, but is he going to be accepted by the European Parliament? They need the socialists to approve as well to get a majority.

[EPG]

I think the vice-presidents could be deceptive. Important, yes, but Moscovici in Economic Affairs and Vestager in Competition are more important. Even Ireland's Phil Hogan will have more influence on the important TTIP than some of the vice-presidents. In contrast, Dombrovskis and Anslip have pretty vague and all-encompassing roles that could command authority over large areas in principle but which aren't yet established.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What was Conete like as an environment minister? I know about the "debating with women" idiocy, but was he a known tool before the gaffe as well?

[Velasco]

I think most of the success of this commission will depend on the vice-presidents. These 'super-commissioners' are a new thing, we will see how it works.

As for Canete, he was the candidate put forward by the Spanish goverment, so Juncker had to chose him, but is he going to be accepted by the European Parliament? They need the socialists to approve as well to get a majority.

Exactly, those country-based power quotas are part of the joke. It seems that Cañete is going to be subordinated to vice-president Alenka Bratusek, from Slovenia. I know nothing about her. As for the approval from the EP, as far as I know the issue was the few women in the EC. At first, I have no reason to think that European socialists are going to reject Cañete. PSOE might oppose him symbolically -previously the party voted against Juncker-, but at the moment I haven't read anything suggesting that. However, PSOE MEP Iratxe García stated that they are going to investigate if there exists conflict of interests, because Cañete is the chairman of the board of directors in two Spanish oil enterprises and owns 2.5% of their capital. That is another part of the joke and it might provoke his rejection, hypothetically. Juncker says that he doesn't consider it. We'll see.

What was Conete like as an environment minister? I know about the "debating with women" idiocy, but was he a known tool before the gaffe as well?

Cañete was minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment. He had previous gaffes, but not regarding women. Juncker said that from his first speeches, everybody will know that he's not who people thinks he is. Don't discard another funny stories, just in case.

('Conete' sounds funny in Spanish. If I put a 'ñ', it would be an obscenity)

[Diouf]

I think the vice-presidents could be deceptive. Important, yes, but Moscovici in Economic Affairs and Vestager in Competition are more important. Even Ireland's Phil Hogan will have more influence on the important TTIP than some of the vice-presidents. In contrast, Dombrovskis and Anslip have pretty vague and all-encompassing roles that could command authority over large areas in principle but which aren't yet established.

Well, if you look at the formal powers the vice-presidents have been given, they do seem quite powerful. Moscovici's job is nowhere near the one Olli Rehn had.

From the Financial Times:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4a28b800-3901-11e4-9cce-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3D0i9Z2mf

Currently, it looks like the most threathened commissiner-designates are Miguel Arias Canete, Karmenu Vella, and Jonathan Hill. Canete due to his women-comment, his shares in two oil companies and not being perceived as "green" enough. Vella due to the fact that his role include evaluation of birds and habitats directives, while Malta apparently likes to shoot birds off the sky. Hill due to opposition from the Social Democrats, and the fact that he is a British Conservative, although his exact degree of Euroscepticism is not really known yet, but I guess he will just repeat the renegotiation line. Gianni Pitella from S&D said that "Financial services is too important and sensitive a job to be given to a conservative with a liberal, free-market approach. The financial sector urgently needs better regulation and we will not accept any backward step on this issue. It's a matter of principle. We promise to be very tough with Lord Hill."
I think Hill could scrape through. He will probably have the backing of most of the EPP and ECR, and many from ALDE; he could probably convince a few social democrats to support him as well. Vella's chances probably depend on his comments and attitudes to the Maltese bird problem, but I think he will make it. Canete will have a very hard time indeed; I think it's even doubtful how loyal the centre-right MEPs will be to him. He will really have to perform at the hearings. Other Commissioner-designates could of course quickly find themselves under threat if new informations are published or if they fail at the hearings.


http://www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu/newsroom/gianni-pittella-commission-must-open-new-phase-some-candidates-must-be-scrutinised-very

[EPG]

What is most meaningful is how many staff these people have. DGs Economic Affairs and Competition have big, entrenched bureaucracies that are skilled at what they do. Some of the new vice-presidencies, presumably, don't. In Euro-bureaucracy world, any project officially shared between these offices will be directed by the biggest, richest one.

[swl]

The anti-pro EU dimension (I also called it sovereignty-intergration) on 1d for more visibility:



I further divided the Left-Right dimension in more dimensions, if you wonder what's in it:

[swl]

After a few corrections:



Details of each EP group (one blue dot=one party):

[swl]

Orange dot is the overall center of gravity of the EP, and each country position can be compared to this dot.

Too lazy to say much about the methodology.

[EPG]

Oh, go on, tell us. It's intriguing.

[MaxQue]

Apparently, the Farage-Grillo (EFDD) group in European Parliament will be dissolved as the Latvian MEP (Green and Farmers) defected to EPP, leaving them short of one country (they need 7).

[swl]

It didn't last long. Now that the UKIP is doing its coming out on immigration, they could consider joining the PVV-FN-FPO-LN-etc.

Oh, go on, tell us. It's intriguing.

Once it's published I can share it.

[joevsimp]

It didn't last long. Now that the UKIP is doing its coming out on immigration, they could consider joining the PVV-FN-FPO-LN-etc.

Oh, go on, tell us. It's intriguing.

Once it's published I can share it.

have they not explicitly ruled out working with almost al of the non-inscrit nationalists?

they'd be more likely to try to save the EFD group than start a new one, but the parties that might join them from the right may drive off m5s, and I don't expect that they could tempt anyone back from ECR

[swl]

It didn't last long. Now that the UKIP is doing its coming out on immigration, they could consider joining the PVV-FN-FPO-LN-etc.

Oh, go on, tell us. It's intriguing.

Once it's published I can share it.

have they not explicitly ruled out working with almost al of the non-inscrit nationalists?

They actually just did that, with MEP from the Polish Congress of the New right joining the EFDD. They definitely belong to the "not socially acceptable" far-right, but they are a small and relatively unknown party, so it should allow the EFDD to keep the millions of funding from the EU while avoiding a public backslash.