EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

With the elections starting in 1 week, this shall be the official results thread.

* Post turnout figures & exit polls here, starting next Thursday.

* Post official results here, starting ONLY after 11pm on May 25 (so that nobobdy who's still voting is influenced by possibly leaked early results).

I will keep this locked until Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Polls in the UK will open at 8:00 CEST (7am local time) and close at 23:00 CEST (10pm local time).

Polls in the Netherlands will open at 7:30 CEST and close at 21:00 CEST.

Exit polls should be out right after the polls close.

Official results are not released though until Sunday 11pm CEST.

[Tender Branson]

The Dutch NOS channel will have an Exit Poll from Ipsos (40.000 people surveyed) at 9pm, when polls close.

http://nos.nl/artikel/651027-de-verkiezingsavond-bij-de-nos.html

Don't know if the BBC, Sky etc. have something similar for the UK ...

Maybe the UK posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

BBC live blog:

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014

BBC results page:

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-results

Important news for UK voters:

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[Tender Branson]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

The question just is: Are these figures including postal voting yet or not ?

And because today is a work-day, you can expect most people to vote after work.

Which means, based on these early figures, we cannot say yet if turnout will be down or not.

[Tender Branson]

No exit poll in the UK tonight:

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[Tender Branson]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

The question just is: Are these figures including postal voting yet or not ?

And because today is a work-day, you can expect most people to vote after work.

Which means, based on these early figures, we cannot say yet if turnout will be down or not.

No, these figures are without postal votes, but only people living abroad are allowed to vote by mail. Most people will vote after work, but that was also the case for 2009, so the turnout will be similar or lower than in 2009.

There will be no official results tonight (only an exitpoll), but weblog http://www.geenstijl.nl/ will have observers in about 1500 of 9000 polling stations. Results will be announced on their website.

Well, it depends: Turnout at 5pm was 24% - the same like in 2009.

The next hours will show if turnout will be higher or lower, because now most people are voting.

[Tender Branson]

Blago, this is only the preliminary exit poll.

Ipsos has now released their definitive exit poll and in this one D66 overtakes the CDA.

Also, turnout is 37%, the same as in 2009.

[Tender Branson]

Remember that in 2009 Wilders PVV did 3% better in the actual vote count than in the exit poll.

So, better wait until Sunday when the votes are released.

[Tender Branson]

The official results page from the European Parliament:

http://www.results-elections2014.eu/en

[Tender Branson]

So no UK results yet?

No, because:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192440.msg4171245#msg4171245

And because:

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-27535855

[Tender Branson]

So no UK results yet?

No, because:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192440.msg4171245#msg4171245

And because:

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-27535855

Uh, from what I gather this only means exit polls are illegal. But actual results should have been counted by now, no?

They are likely counted, but the publishing of the results is forbidden by an EU commission directive.

All countries are only allowed to publish their results after 11pm tomorrow, when the last polling stations close in Italy.

You might have missed that:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4158359#msg4158359

[Tender Branson]

Ah, wow. Well, I guess that makes sense.

Though the best way of doing these elections would be if we:

* could go back to pre-1999 style, when all countries had to count their votes after the last polling stations have closed anywhere.

* the elections are held on the same day in every country, with unified poll closing times.

* or if the EU Commission not only bans the release of early voting results, but also early exit polls and threatens to fine all broadcasters that release an exit poll, and/or fine the pollsters that conduct them (hard to enforce, so I rather prefer options 1 or options 2).

[Tender Branson]

The Czech Republic is on track for just a 20% turnout (was 15% at 10am today).

With voting possible on 2 days (polls have just closed there).

[Tender Branson]

Wait, so there actually was a single polling day before 1999? Who's the idiot who changed that, and why?

No, there was not a single voting day. There was a directive which mandated all countries to start counting their votes not after their own polls closed, but after the last polls closed on Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

There's almost no benefit to synchronising results, though, so these bans or directives would be undue interference in national election organisations.

Unless you are in the opinion that an EU election should be held with the same rules everywhere under a common EU voting law that sets the same procedures for every country. That would also mean the same parties on the ballot in every country. If the same parties are on the ballot in all countries, it would be unfair to have different voting days or poll closing times. People in other countries would then be really influenced if a country would close earlier and release its results.

[Tender Branson]

Czech Exit Poll:

    TOP 09 - 18 procent
    ČSSD  - 17
    ANO - 15,5
    KSČM  - 11
    KDU-ČSL - 9,5
    ODS - 9,5
    Svobodní - 4,5
    Zelení - 4,5
    Piráti - 3,5
    Úsvit - 2

http://zpravy.idnes.cz/podle-predpovedi-vyhrala-top-09-dzk-/domaci.aspx?c=A140524_135352_domaci_jj#utm_source=sph.idnes&utm_medium=richtext&utm_content=top6

[Tender Branson]

That is much different to what the polls showed (ANO way ahead).

But I guess this is what happens in a 20% turnout election ...

[Tender Branson]

The polls in Austria are now open.

Poll closing time is 5pm (11am EST).

The ORF will have a first projection then as well (there's no exit poll in AUT, the projection is based on already counted precincts)

German polls close at 6pm.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna will release turnout figures at 2pm.

On the Twitter feed #beifunk, election officials are twittering turnout updates.

So far, so good: turnout looks about 2009-ish, according to their precincts.

[Tender Branson]

At noon, turnout in Italy is some 16%.

Don't know how this compares with previous years, but it looks of course much higher than other countries.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna turnout at 2pm was some 31% vs. 32% in 2009.

[Tender Branson]

Polls in Austria close in 45 minutes.

A first projection by the ORF can be watched here:

http://de.iphone-tv.eu/stream/at/8

[Tender Branson]

Poll closing times by country:

[Tender Branson]

In Germany, there's quite the increase in turnout until 2pm:

2014: 25.6%
2009: 20.2%