EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[politicus]

Sweden:

S 23.7%
Mp 17.1%
M 13%
Fp 9.5%
V 8.1%
F 7%
SD 7%
C 6.2%
Kd 5.1%
PP 2.5%

Wow!

Great for Miljöpartiet and with Feminist Alternative getting 7% I think they will pass the Riksdag threshold in the autumn (of course anything can happen, but I will be placing a small bet on it now).

[politicus]

Danish prediction with 3.4 % of the results in

DF 26.4% 3 seats
Social Democrats 18.6% 3
Liberals 17.4% 3
SF 10.8% 1
Conservatives 9.6% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8.0% 1
Social Liberals 6.1% 1
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0

DF is rising towards their expected highs as results are coming in and now they are close to 4 seats. The Liberals hold on to the third seat by the smallest of margins currently; now the threat is no longer a potential second seat for SF but a fourth seat for DF. The centre-left pact's fifth seat is not completely sure either, so the Social Liberal seat or the third Social Democrat seat could still be lost.

Why is DF doing so extremely well? Is it mainly due to anti-EU sentiments in Denmark?

Morten Messerschmidt is a brilliant and charismatic campaigner and there is no other non-far left eurosceptic alternative, since thes Peoples Movement against EU is basically identical to the Red Greens.

[politicus]

15,7% to  Forza Italia is a sweet result. Much "better" than expected.

[politicus]

I thought the SF was dead.

The party has too many members and a network of local representatives in trade unions, environmental organizations, housing estates boards etc. to just die off and it had a popular and very capable no. 1 on their list.

Its certainly an encouragement for them doing so relatively well in the EP election. Even if they didn't keep the second seat. Still had the Red-Green Alliance decided to run as a party and fielded a strong frontrunner this would have been different.

[politicus]

Two parties from this list, VOW.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Ecological_Parties

ÖDP is one of my favourite parties. Which was the other one?

[politicus]

Both Jobbik and Le Pen want to join Eurasian Union (Putinistas) so that would not be problem. You must also understand that aboard  FN is often seen as similar crazy military group.

True, but the basis for Marine Le Pens whole political project is to give them a more moderate image and rebrand them as mainstram right wing populists.

[politicus]

In the case of DPP they have had good contacts with euro-sceptic Tory right wingers for close to a decade now, so its not surprising + Morten Messerschmidt has excellent personal contacts with members of the Tory right. True Finns are more moderate than DPP, so it makes sense. None of the parties have neo-Nazi roots or connections. Messerschmidt is convicted for racist statements, which is illegal after the Danish criminal code, but I guess thats water under the bridge.

Why put True Finns in ()? It is the party name. Use "True" if you think its ridiculous.

[politicus]

I thought the party's approved English translation of their Finnish name now left out the "True", possibly because of what Antonio said.  Hence the ().

According to wikipedia it does. That's even more ridiculous - but I guess it makes sense.

Speaking of problematic names the Danish Peoples Party was originally the name of a small Nazi splinter party during the war, which tried to brand themselves as patriotic Danish Nazis, unlike those treasonous pro-German ones in the DNSAP. But Pia Kjærsgaard chose to ignore this fact when she named the party, thinking that nobody apart from a few historians would care. And she was right.

[politicus]

The correct translation would be "Regulary Finns".  Has the leaders of DP cult following, like some of the PS politicians have.

Why Sannfinländarna in Swedish then?

[politicus]

Average Joe Finns.

Jukka the Plumber Party.

[politicus]

The Feminist Initiative joins the Social Democrat group. Quite surprising for me; I thought they were more radical and would join Greens or GUE-NGL.

Their arguments are pragmatic: "Its a bigger group with more power and they have offered us both the positions and resources we wanted".

Looks like they have just been offered a better deal.

[politicus]

Renzi is supposedly pushing for a a female Commission president and the favorite seems to be Dalia Grybauskaite, President of Lithuania.

I have heard different things: Helle T/S (Denmark)

Really, all this backroom talk is nuts - bring on the direct popular vote for President and transform the Commission into some kind of Senate that we are directly electing as well.

Source?

 

[politicus]

Renzi is supposedly pushing for a a female Commission president and the favorite seems to be Dalia Grybauskaite, President of Lithuania.

"A martial arts expert with a black belt in karate, who has said her political heroes include Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill".

Just what the EU needs.

[politicus]

Things developed quite quickly it seems...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/

Crowley has had the FF whip removed over this move.

Doing a solo run to ally with the Tories was "een brug te ver" for FF, for historical-cultural reasons as much as ideological ones.

The combination of economic centrism, social conservatism by European standards, and less than total enthusiasm for further European integration means that FF doesn't naturally fit into any of the EP groups.

Apart from immigration issues, this combo makes FF identical to the DPP, who are already in the group.

[politicus]

FF hates the idea of associating with those parties. Its identity is like the Canadian Liberals; it's the party that built the country; it doesn't identify with junior-partner agrarian or anti-immigrant parties.

True, but one thing is self perception, another is reality.

[politicus]

Politics is all about these perceptions, the pacts between voters who identify with and respect politicians, and politicians who identify with and respect each other. As is clear from European Parliament groups, the details of policies matter very little at all.

Unnecessary lecture is unnecessary.

[politicus]

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

Originally yes, but increasingly less so - their present appeal is much broader and in many ways they are trying to fill the position FF traditionally had in Irish politics (not that I think they will succeed in this, its a tall order).

[politicus]

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

Originally yes, but increasingly less so - their present appeal is much broader and in many ways they are trying to fill the position FF traditionally had in Irish politics (not that I think they will succeed in this, its a tall order).

That would require them to swallow most of the SD vote and define themselves against Venstre/Conservatives (the FG analogue) rather than be allied with it. I don't see it either.

Parties here have kept well away from immigration issues up until now (even in the middle of a recession with sizeable out-migration of Irish citizens) and I don't see FF as being willing to go there.

The view of immigration is one of the differences between Danish and Irish society (the level of secularization, historical strength of the left wing and size of the welfare state being other important ones).

Still, the strategic goal of the DPP leadership is to become the broad, national party of Denmark by cutting into the Liberals lower middle class/working class support in provincial Denmark and reducing them to the party of the affluent middle class (=FG) and relegating SD to a much smaller party (=Irish Labour) by taking their remaining working class voters and reducing them to a party of public employees.

The means to do this is a nationalist, populist message, that's somewhat leftist without really being it, but just enough to represent "the little guy". Euroscepticism, "Danishness", family values and cultural Christianity are also important parts of the platform. Their basis is increasingly small town and rural Denmark, with a much lower support in the capital area.

So there are clear similarities, but of course such parallels ls should not be taking too far.

The DPP leadership has an SD-DPP alliance as a preferred option "when a new generation takes over" in SD. That would make the Liberals their main rivals.

Whether this is possible is of course a matter of opinion. Still, I think its fair to say that "FF with xenophobia" would be a good description of where they want to be.