EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Diouf]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

[Diouf]

GeenStijl has made their first exit poll with results including 200 000 voters.

http://www.geenstijl.nl/mt/archieven/2014/05/tussenuitslag_geenpeil.html

Results are similar to Ipsos, expect for 1 more seat for PVV and no seat for 50Plus

[Diouf]

RTÉ exit polls for the European elections in Ireland

Exit poll for Ireland
Fine Gael (EPP) 22%
Fianna Fáil (ALDE) 22%
Sinn Féin (GUE-NGL) 17%
Labour (S&D) 6%
Green Party (Greens) 6%
Others/Independents 27 %

Exit poll for Dublin (3 seats)
Lynn Boylan, Sinn Féin 24%
Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14%
Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14%
Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12%
Nessa Childers, independent 11%
Emer Costello,  Labour 8%
Paul Murphy, Socialist Party 7%
Brid Smith, People Before Profit 6 %

Exit poll for South (4 seats)
Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 %
Liadh Ni Riada, Sinn Féin 17 %
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12%
Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9%
Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7%
Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5%
Grace O’Sullivan, Green Party 5%
Phil Prendergast, Labour 5%
Diarmuid O'Flynn, independent 5%

Exit poll for Midlands–North-West (4 seats)
Luke 'Ming' Flanagan, independent 20%
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16%
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13%
Pat the Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11%
Marian Harkin, independent 11%
Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10%
Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 %
Lorraine Higgins, Labour 4%
Rónán Mullen, independent 4%

Live blog from the Irish Times here: http://liveblog.irishtimes.com/9581afbb95/LIVE-Elections/

EDIT: Deleted seat predictions as they were probably a bit off

[Diouf]

Exit poll for Latvia by Latvian public broadcaster LTV1 and research agency Latvias Fakti



4 seats for Vienotība (EPP). The former PM  Valdis Dombrovskis has been their lead candidate, and will probably be Latvia's new Commissioner.
2 seats for Saskaņas Centrs. This alliance includes both Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija (S&D) and Latvijas Sociālistiskā partija (GUE-NGL). Probably a seat for each of them.
1 seat for the Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba coalition. It includes Latvijas Zemnieku savienība (probably EPP) and Latvijas Zaļā partija (Greens). Normally the former party, the agrarians, is the biggest party so they will probably win this seat.
1 seat for the Nacionālā apvienība coalition. It includes Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK (ECR) and Visu Latvijai! (probably EFD or EAF). The former is normally a lot bigger, so they will probably win this seat.
Latvijas Krievu savienība, a russian minority party whose predecessor party's MEP sat in the Green-EFA group, just misses out on a seat.

Turnout predicted to be 25,67 %. In 2009 it was 53.69, but there were local elections on the same day.

[Diouf]

Turnout in Denmark 29.57% at 14.00 according to Ritzau. It's 1.0% down from same time in 2009, but then we had a referendum on royal succession which probably drew a bit mit more voters than the unified patent court. Polls close at 20.00

[Diouf]

...

Looks like the people who said NEOS in the pre-election polls sticked with the ÖVP ...

Or those who said NEOS are younger and didn't show up after all?

[Diouf]

At 16.00 turnout in Denmark 37.51%. In 2009 it was 40,1%

[Diouf]

Results from Finland can be seen here: http://vaalit.yle.fi/tulospalvelu/2014/eurovaalit/ehdokkaat_vertauslukujarjestyksessa.html

The top 13 names are the ones who currently look like being elected.

With 40.9% counted, the result is:
3 seats for Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
3 seats for Suomen Keskusta (ALDE)
2 seats for Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
2 seats for Perussuomalaiset (currently EFD, could follow DF into ECR)
1 seat for Vasemmistoliitto (GUE-NGL)
1 seat for Vihreä liitto (Greens)
1 seat for Suomen ruotsalainen kansanpuolue (ALDE)

The last seat for the Swedish minority party is very much on the line, and earlier results had them out and four seats for Kokoomus instead.

[Diouf]

Exit poll in Denmark

DF 23,1% 3 seats
Social Democrats 20,5% 3
Liberals 17,2% 2
SF 11,9% 2
Conservatives 8,6% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1
Social Liberals 7,0% 1
Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0

With this polls the S-R-SF pact just takes a sixth seat instead of a fourth seat for the V-K-pact. This means that the Liberals go back to just 2 seats, while SF actually manages to retain its 2 seats. However, the difference is marginal, and a fourth seat for DF cannot be counted out either, although they have some way to go according to this exit poll.

[Diouf]

SD above Vestre? Surprising.

There have been yet another scandal regarding the expenses of the Liberal leader. During 2010 and 2011 when he was PM, the Liberals bought him clothes for 150 000 kr (ca 20 000 euro). Furthermore, there are some doubt about whether he has used some of the clothes privately, in which case he should pay taxes for them. He says that he has paid the neccessary tax.
Furthermore, their front runner is not that a good a candidate.
Also this time the Liberal Alliance does much better, and is on its own, not in the Liberal-conservative pact. All these things make it more difficult for the Liberals to retain their three seats. However, as I wrote it's very close, and I think they will just clinch the third one.

[Diouf]

Danish Epinion Exit poll regarding the unified patent court

Yes 64,1%
No 35,9%

[Diouf]

Danish prediction with 3.4 % of the results in

DF 26.4% 3 seats
Social Democrats 18.6% 3
Liberals 17.4% 3
SF 10.8% 1
Conservatives 9.6% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8.0% 1
Social Liberals 6.1% 1
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0

DF is rising towards their expected highs as results are coming in and now they are close to 4 seats. The Liberals hold on to the third seat by the smallest of margins currently; now the threat is no longer a potential second seat for SF but a fourth seat for DF. The centre-left pact's fifth seat is not completely sure either, so the Social Liberal seat or the third Social Democrat seat could still be lost.

[Diouf]

Result for Denmark with 74.5% of the results in:

DF 26.8% 4 seats
Social Democrats 19.1% 3
Liberals 16.7% 2
SF 10,6% 1
Conservatives 9.2% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8.1% 1
Social Liberals 6.5% 1
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0

DF looks like they will take 4 seats. The Liberals will probably only get two seats; a very big defeat; no polls have shown them this low. Big question marks will be raised again about the future of the Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

[Diouf]

Result from NE England

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Martin Callanan, the Tory who has led the ECR group, has lost his seat!

[Diouf]

Wov, Renzi seems to be absolutely destroying the other parties. It even looks like Alfano's NCD/UDC will not make it above the threshold. PD must clearly become the second biggest national party delegation in the EP and narrow some of the gap between the EPP and S&D.

[Diouf]

Partito Democratico could end up being the biggest national party delegation in the EP. The current results suggest that they would get 34 seats!. The CDU/CSU got 35, but "only" 29 for CDU alone, which must be the biggest delegation so far. So if the numbers hold up, PD should be able to get more than those 29.

[Diouf]

Danish map:



The yellow colour is of course DF; the pink is SF, not the Social Liberals. As in many other countries, there is a vast gap between the capital and the rest of the country. DF won 26.6% nationwide and was clearly the biggest party; in the Inner City district in Copenhagen they won 9.5% and finished sixth.

[Diouf]

The yellow colour is of course DF; the pink is SF, not the Social Liberals. As in many other countries, there is a vast gap between the capital and the rest of the country. DF won 26.6% nationwide and was clearly the biggest party; in the Inner City district in Copenhagen they won 9.5% and finished sixth.

I thought the SF was dead. Do they always win a big chunk of the capital like that?

Well, the national polls are still quite terrible. The latest polling average has them on 5.4% while they won 9.2% at the 2011 general election. However, since leaving the government they have improved a bit; partly due to being able to disavow some of the unpopular goverment policies . Before and just after the tumultuous resignation from the government, the party averaged 3.5% and some polls showed them just above the 2%-threshold.

Generally, they do better in the capital than in the rest of the country. At the last general election, they won 12.4% in Copenhagen compared to 9.2% nationwide. In the 2013 local elections, they won 10.0% in Copenhagen compared to 5.6% nationwide.
But the difference was bigger than normally this time. I'm not sure there will be a combined Copenhagen result, but the district results suggest a result above 20 % in Copenhagen while the nationwide result was 10.9%. There are a number of reasons for this. First of all Enhedslisten, who have been taking a lot of their Copenhagen votes, is not running and many left-wing voters are probably reluctant to vote for a party that wants Denmark to leave the EU. Second, the younger voters, who might be tempted to actually choose the People's Movement instead of SF, are more likely not to vote in European elections. This is especially significant in Copenhagen which obviously has a lot of young voters. Thirdly, SF's candidate was the popular and experienced Margrethe Auken, who has been a MP for 21 years and MEP for the last ten years while the People's movement candidate was the young, inexperienced and unknown Rina Ronja Kari. So in Copenhagen where there are more left-wing voters and the left-wing parties probably compaign more, the difference between the two front runners have probably made a bigger difference.

[Diouf]

The leader of the National Liberal Party (PNL) in Romania suggests that the party should leave ALDE and join EPP because "the EU should not be led by a Socialist president". Couldn't they just like vote against any socialist candidate. They would certainly not be the only ALDE party to do that. They won 6 seats and would be the second biggest party delegation in ALDE.*
 
*If the French UDI/Modem alliance is considered one party.

http://euobserver.com/tickers/124354

[Diouf]

Quite a few resignations already around Europe after some poor EP2014 showings.

PSOE leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba
Leader of the Irish Labour Party Eamon Gilmore
MSZP (Hungarian Socialists) leader Attila Mesterházy
Romanian National Liberal Party leader Crin Antonescu

In Denmark the pressure is mounting on the Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen, but for now it looks like he will try to fight through it.

[Diouf]

Why did the Danish Venstre do so poorly anyway? I thought they were polling fairly decently, especially in national polls.

Until recently, they polled fairly decently around 27 % in national polls. Then came the most recent expenses scandal regarding their leader, which have brought them down a few points in the most recent polls and negatively affected their EP campaign.

Additionally, the issue of paying child benefits to EU citizens have been quite a hot topic for months which have roused anti-EU sentiments, and convinced a lot of Liberal voters to vote DF, especially in these EU elections. See more in the Great Nordic thread.
Also the DF front runner was very popular while the Liberal front runner was not very convincing. DF front candidate Morten Messerschmidt has broken the record for the most personal votes ever. Currently his tally is on 420 000 and when every vote has been counted it is expected to land around 460 000. Meanwhile the Liberal front runner selection has been quite chaotic. First, the current MEP Jens Rohde, who looks like he will get the second Liberal seat, was to lead them again, but a newspaper comment he co-authored days before the confirmation meant that he was deselected for being to eurointegrationist. Then political spokesperson Ellen Thrane Nørby, who would have been a decent candidate, was chosen but resigned when she became pregnant. They ended up with Ulla Tørnæs, a long-time MP and former Minister, but without much charisma or enthusiasm.

[Diouf]

Will the far right get his group?

I guess the UKIP and Afd will never caucuse with them.

It actually looks slightly better for Le Pen/Wilders than Farage, I reckon. This looks rather certain: EAF will have FN with 24, PVV with 4, FPÖ with 4, SD with 2 and VB with 1.
The EFD will have UKIP with 24, Lithuanian TT with 2, Svobodní with 1 and SGP with 1.

Lega Nord with four seats has been in the EFD, but will most likely join EAF. Then EAF will only need an MEP from one other country.
DF looks very likely to join ECR, and the same for PS. This will make life very difficult for EFD which will then need MEPs from three other countries. An additional advantage for the Conservatives, I guess.
There seems to be a number of potential new partners for both EFD and EAF. Janusz Korwin-Mikkes new Polish Congress of the Right, ANEL from Greece, Bulgaria Without Censorship, Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union which was in UEN from 2004-2009 but is said to be considering EPP, and perhaps the new Slovakian NOVA. There is of course also the possibility for individual defectors from other groups, or single man, maverick parties which have been elected on bigger party lists. I guess no one would like to touch Jobbik, Golden Dawn nor NPD.

[Diouf]

Today the leaders of the European Parliament gather to discuss the outcome and the process of finding the new Commission President. This evening the European Council will meet to discuss the same things.

As expected, David Cameron is trying to gather a blocking minority against any of the front runners appointed by the European parties; this mainly means blocking Juncker at the moment. The only supporter who has publicly supported this block so far is Viktor Orbán, who is probably not to pleased about some of the comments regarding his party from many in the top of EPP, including Juncker.

Downing Street also announced that Cameron had called Chancellor Merkel, President Grybauskaite, PM Orban, PM Reinfeldt, PM Bratusek and Taoiseach Kenny to discuss the process. Sources say that he believe that they are his main potential allies. However, I doubt whether Merkel would really want to dump Juncker, and Kenny has supported Juncer publicly at the EPP conference in Dublin where he was elected.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-calls-to-european-leaders-ahead-of-informal-european-council



Faymann supports Juncker as the EPP won the election

[Diouf]

The outcome of the meeting between the EP group leaders:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=56crpz52&headline=EU_parliament_leaders_rally_round_Juncker_for_top_job

[Diouf]

Do you think that EPP will accept Mussolini to their group?

I guess they will just do as with all other Forza Italia MEPs; hope no one notices them. If asked, they will just mumble that all groups have some funny guys and move on quickly. I think it will only be a problem if she makes some crazy comments like the last time when she made the Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty explode after stating that all Romanians are criminals. She could, however, be a good guess on a MEP that leaves the EPP at some point and then join of the various Eurosceptic groups.
I can see Antonio Tajani, the European Commissioner for Industry and Entrepreneurship, ran for Forza Italia and was elected with a good personal result. So I guess he could very well be the leader of the FI delegation as he was from June 1999 until May 2008.