How likely is a double digit win for Hillary?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Granted it's 2014 and anything can happen, but Hillary seems well poised to win the major swing states (OH, FL) by decent margins, perhaps even bigger ones than Obama. I could also see her matching or even surpassing Obama's margins in NY & CA, and I don't think there's much of a chance the GOP candidate will carry TX by the same 15+ points as Romney, same goes for other well populated GOP states like AZ & MO. Could Hillary win by something like 54-44?

[MurrayBannerman]

Rand Paul would have to run third party for her to win by double digits.

[Never]

It could happen, but it is highly unlikely. I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election. It is much too early to tell whether OH and FL will both go for Hillary by a huge margin. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised for her to lose either or both, even if she still wins the overall election. I think she can get to 53%, but that she will top out there. She might expand the map compared to 2012 by two or three states, but it is probably going to be hard for her to beat the Republican by at least 10 points.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

[Maxwell]

If the Pubs nominate Jindal, Cruz, Perry, or, in his worst case scenario, Christie, it's possible.

[Never]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

Let me rephrase that... I mean that I don't think that Hillary is going to do significantly better than Obama, and that she could very well lose. It seems like a lot of people think that she is headed for a landslide, and I don't think that's the case.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

Let me rephrase that... I mean that I don't think that Hillary isn't going to do significantly better than Obama, and that she could very well lose. It seems like a lot of people think that she is headed for a landslide, and I don't think that's the case.

With Obama hitting what is basically the Democratic floor with whites (barring a complete collapse) and still getting 51%, and with Hillary's popularity in the Latino community I find it hard to imagine her doing moderately worse.

[Never]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

Let me rephrase that... I mean that I don't think that Hillary isn't going to do significantly better than Obama, and that she could very well lose. It seems like a lot of people think that she is headed for a landslide, and I don't think that's the case.

With Obama hitting what is basically the Democratic floor with whites (barring a complete collapse) and still getting 51%, and with Hillary's popularity in the Latino community I find it hard to imagine her doing moderately worse.

She could do better with Latinos, but that might be counteracted by having to deal with decreased turnout from blacks, nothing catastrophic, but I would expect her to get about 90-92% of the vote, somewhere between Kerry's share in 2004 and Obama's particularly high share.

[Bull Moose Base]

Rand Paul would have to run third party for her to win by double digits.

Or just run second party.

In all seriousness, each of the prospective establishment choices has some risk of triggering a third party run that could do it, and the other options could trigger it one-on-one. That said, I think there's a fairly slim chance of it. But I'd call it a 50/50 chance right now of a >5 Hillary win (the <5 including her losing).

[Mister Mets]

I'd guess it's rather unlikely.

While demographic trends favor Democrats, that's more of a long-term proposition. It shouldn't be worth more than a point of the popular vote.

It would be unlikely for Hillary to beat Obama's popular vote. He had several advantages she won't have (ran as an incumbent, better natural campaigner, high African American turnout) and there is a historic tendency going back to before FDR for parties to peak and steadily lose votes in presidential elections.

For Hillary to have a double digit win, she would not only have to beat Obama's numbers, but she would have to do so by a large margin.

One thing that suggests it's within the realm of possibility is the 2006 and 2008 senate elections. In those cycles, Democrats beat Republicans by more than ten points ( 53.8% to 41.8% in 2006, 53.7% to 42.1% in 2012.) Although part of that share is due to noncompetitive elections in New York and California.

[SWE]

Miniscule

[eric82oslo]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

[MurrayBannerman]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

[bedstuy]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.

[Devils30]

Castro is palinesque in terms of experience but he's a tad more intelligent...or much more.

[Blue3]

Unlikely, though it's only possible for her in 2016. Maybe 10-30% chance. But we can dream.

[Maxwell]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Personally, I'm dreaming of Clinton/Villaraigosa, Clinton/McAuliffe, or Clinton/Kaine.

[Indy Texas]

I don't see any politician from either party winning by double digits in this era.

Hillary's 2016 performance would probably be along the lines of Obama's 2008 performance in terms of popular vote. Best case would probably be something like 54-45.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. McAuliffe, Sen. Kaine or Sen. Warner as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Kaine, or Gov. Bill Richardson as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

Cuomo would be a disaster. Richardson is a decent choice if Hillary isn't holding a grudge.

[Maxwell]

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Kaine, or Gov. Bill Richardson as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

Cuomo would be a disaster. Richardson is a decent choice if Hillary isn't holding a grudge.

Richardson would be a pretty bad choice. He's still got a lot of skeletons in his closet from New Mexico.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Kaine, or Gov. Bill Richardson as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

Cuomo would be a disaster. Richardson is a decent choice if Hillary isn't holding a grudge.

Richardson would be a pretty bad choice. He's still got a lot of skeletons in his closet from New Mexico.

Yeah, I suppose it's probably better for Hillary to pick someone super clean, given the doubts about her own character among the electorate. I do think she should pick a Latino, since they are more than likely going to be her key to victory.

[Spamage]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularly high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

No, it's not.

[MurrayBannerman]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.

Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time.

[Never]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularly high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

No, it's not.

I think it is notoriously difficult to determine who a candidate will pick as their running mate. I'm sure that most people expected McCain to pick someone other than Palin, it seemed like Obama was leaning towards Evan Bayh instead of Joe Biden, and many thought that Romney would opt for Rubio as his vice-presidential nominee.

Although we can reasonably expect Hillary Clinton to pick one of her supporters as her running mate, there are so many politicians allied with her that it is tough to see who she actually favors. There are going to be many other factors going into that decision other than ethnicity, and even if Clinton picks a minority running mate, that might only give her a boost of about 1% or so, and that is conditional on whether the running mate is a good pick in their own right. There is always the risk that Hillary could end up with someone on the ticket who provides no boost or even drags down the ticket.