How likely is a double digit win for Hillary?
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  How likely is a double digit win for Hillary?
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Oakvale
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« Reply #25 on: May 15, 2014, 09:13:22 PM »

lmao

You #ReadyforHillary guys are not so much jumping the shark as hurtling miles overhead at supersonic speeds.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2014, 09:16:26 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
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MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2014, 09:22:16 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2014, 09:43:57 PM »

Fair enough.

For the record, I think a blowout of this magnitude is more likely than people think. I know the United States is pretty polarized at the moment, but the centre does still exist. Not only are demographics changing to favour the Democrats, but we shouldn't forget that a lot of people are changing their minds on key issues, too. I'd be interested to see a poll between generic R and generic D for presidential candidates.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2014, 09:44:16 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #30 on: May 15, 2014, 10:14:41 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.
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Spamage
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« Reply #31 on: May 15, 2014, 10:21:26 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularly high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

No, it's not.

I think it is notoriously difficult to determine who a candidate will pick as their running mate. I'm sure that most people expected McCain to pick someone other than Palin, it seemed like Obama was leaning towards Evan Bayh instead of Joe Biden, and many thought that Romney would opt for Rubio as his vice-presidential nominee.

Although we can reasonably expect Hillary Clinton to pick one of her supporters as her running mate, there are so many politicians allied with her that it is tough to see who she actually favors. There are going to be many other factors going into that decision other than ethnicity, and even if Clinton picks a minority running mate, that might only give her a boost of about 1% or so, and that is conditional on whether the running mate is a good pick in their own right. There is always the risk that Hillary could end up with someone on the ticket who provides no boost or even drags down the ticket.

He was discussing how likely it was for Hillary to get above a 10% victory, that's what I was responding to.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #32 on: May 15, 2014, 10:24:12 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.

Probably the same way blacks felt about white conservatives saying "Michael Steele will win the black votes" in 2006.
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Never
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« Reply #33 on: May 15, 2014, 10:25:05 PM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularly high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

No, it's not.

I think it is notoriously difficult to determine who a candidate will pick as their running mate. I'm sure that most people expected McCain to pick someone other than Palin, it seemed like Obama was leaning towards Evan Bayh instead of Joe Biden, and many thought that Romney would opt for Rubio as his vice-presidential nominee.

Although we can reasonably expect Hillary Clinton to pick one of her supporters as her running mate, there are so many politicians allied with her that it is tough to see who she actually favors. There are going to be many other factors going into that decision other than ethnicity, and even if Clinton picks a minority running mate, that might only give her a boost of about 1% or so, and that is conditional on whether the running mate is a good pick in their own right. There is always the risk that Hillary could end up with someone on the ticket who provides no boost or even drags down the ticket.

He was discussing how likely it was for Hillary to get above a 10% victory, that's what I was responding to.

Oh, I misunderstood you.

Still, I don't think that Hillary's running mate will really have much impact of whether Hillary can get a double digit win, and I feel that is something to consider.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: May 15, 2014, 10:31:57 PM »

lmao

You #ReadyforHillary guys are not so much jumping the shark as hurtling miles overhead at supersonic speeds.

Yes, because Hillary winning by double digits is such an outlandish and ridiculous scenario, that even suggesting it could be a possibility shows signs of delusion.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2014, 11:10:54 PM »

Yeah the idea that Hillary will pick a running mate to boost her seems ridiculous and there doesn't even seem to be anyone who would do so. Why would a minority running mate boost her? She will on the other hand avoid picking someone who could hurt, and anyone who was transparently picked for a geographic or demographic political motive carries that risk. I have said Gary Locke will be on her short list but he's easy to justify on the merits- he's a 2-term governor with experience as a cabinet member and ambassador to the biggest country in the world.

Speaking of Washington state, I'd add Patti Murray to the list of VPs because I think a big lead affects the VP pick more than the other way around and if Hillary's lead is high single digits for example, she could safely pick Murray.

Some people have mentioned a Clinton-Warren ticket (Bill Maher is the latest.) That seems more unlikely but not impossible if Sanders runs in a primary and the base needs to be shored up. Seems doubtful though. DeBlasio seems more likely.

Speaking of NY, I assume she will also look at switching her voter registration to DC a la Cheney 2000 if DeBlasio, Cuomo or Gillibrand appealed to her as a running mate.

Kaine seems like a pretty safe pick too. (Not sure why someone lumped him in with McAuliffe) He'd probably rank higher if he hadn't been the first high-ranking official to endorse Obama in 2008. But if he's the smartest pick in a close race, Hillary is  smart enough to not care.
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MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2014, 11:19:06 PM »

De Blasio would be another dream of mine.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #37 on: May 15, 2014, 11:46:39 PM »

De Blasio would be another dream of mine.

Why?
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MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #38 on: May 16, 2014, 12:01:16 AM »

I've heard nothing but bad things about him from New Yorkers. Especially in regards to his handling of the snow plowing.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #39 on: May 16, 2014, 12:26:30 AM »

The median win for Barack Obama in 2008 was 16.35% (Oregon). His median loss was about 14.92% (Kansas and Nebraska were practically the same).  Contrast 1980, and the median win for Reagan was  around 12.5% (rough average of Iowa and Washington)  and his median loss (4.51% -- West Virginia).

Barack Obama, contrary to his desires, got very polarized results. Hillary Clinton so far projects to win about everything that Obama won in 2008 but without being so polarizing elsewhere. Should Hillary Clinton win everything that Barack Obama won in 2008 by similar margins and find that some of the giant margins by which Obama lost in other states, then Hillary Clinton can win by a double-digit margin.  
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morgieb
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« Reply #40 on: May 16, 2014, 01:15:27 AM »

Unlikely. Would need Obama to be at least somewhat popular, a good economy and a failure of an opposition candidate/third-party candidate.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #41 on: May 16, 2014, 04:16:40 AM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.

In numerous polls, at least in a couple of polls conducted by the Pew Research Center/Pew's Hispanic Trends Center, latinos have expressed their laments that they don't have a national latino leader yet. A VP candidate endorsed wholeheartedly by Hillary could easily and rapidly become such a leader (just like the inexperienced Palin almost immediately became the Tea Party leader shortly after the 2008 election). A Hillary candidacy would probably raise the anemic latino turnout in 2012 at 48% by a few pecentage points, perhaps all the way up to 55-57%. However, I'm pretty sure that the only way to succeed with what right now seems like an almost impossible task, to raise the latino turnout to 60% or beyond, would be to put one of theirs on the ballot. And to suggest that there doesn't even exist one single qualified person among the US' 53 million latinos is quite pathetic, to say the least. What an offensive remark really to 17% of the US population.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #42 on: May 16, 2014, 04:32:33 AM »

I think a double-digit win is possible, but just barely. On one hand, Obama won by 8.3 points in 2008 - take away the race element and 10 points seems obtainable. On the other, it's quite difficult to imagine Hillary outperforming Obama in every state. I think she'd absolutely annihilate the electoral college, but I really wouldn't expect her to break 53% or so. There are also regional variations that could add some fluidity to the landscape. She's going to enjoy huge swings in the South, but will do relatively poorly compared to Obama in the western half of the country. I think in the right circumstances, she could lose CO and pick up NC and/or GA

Maybe this in a good scenario for her (373-165):



Or in a bad year (294-244):



Referring to what a couple of others mentioned, I don't think minority turnout will suffer in the slightest with Hillary and/or without Obama being on the ballot. Preference among latinos and blacks for Hillary are likely to wane a bit, though - there's been an unnaturally high level of support for Obama in the past two election cycles and I just can't see it holding for Hillary, no matter how much she may be liked.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #43 on: May 16, 2014, 05:40:11 AM »

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Kaine, or Gov. Bill Richardson as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

Cuomo would be a disaster. Richardson is a decent choice if Hillary isn't holding a grudge.

She'll pick a loyalist from 2008. The Clintons are all about loyalty.

My bet is on one of the Castro brothers from Texas, although (obviously) I would prefer Ed Rendell (but I know he would make a great campaign manager as well).
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« Reply #44 on: May 16, 2014, 05:43:52 AM »

Indeed, anyone who thinks polls taken on 2016 in 2014 should be taken seriously does show signs of delusion
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« Reply #45 on: May 16, 2014, 06:41:44 AM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.

In numerous polls, at least in a couple of polls conducted by the Pew Research Center/Pew's Hispanic Trends Center, latinos have expressed their laments that they don't have a national latino leader yet. A VP candidate endorsed wholeheartedly by Hillary could easily and rapidly become such a leader (just like the inexperienced Palin almost immediately became the Tea Party leader shortly after the 2008 election). A Hillary candidacy would probably raise the anemic latino turnout in 2012 at 48% by a few pecentage points, perhaps all the way up to 55-57%. However, I'm pretty sure that the only way to succeed with what right now seems like an almost impossible task, to raise the latino turnout to 60% or beyond, would be to put one of theirs on the ballot. And to suggest that there doesn't even exist one single qualified person among the US' 53 million latinos is quite pathetic, to say the least. What an offensive remark really to 17% of the US population.

Uh, I never said that. We were talking about Julian Castro.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #46 on: May 16, 2014, 06:59:04 AM »

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)
I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.
Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time. Tongue

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.
Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.

In numerous polls, at least in a couple of polls conducted by the Pew Research Center/Pew's Hispanic Trends Center, latinos have expressed their laments that they don't have a national latino leader yet. A VP candidate endorsed wholeheartedly by Hillary could easily and rapidly become such a leader (just like the inexperienced Palin almost immediately became the Tea Party leader shortly after the 2008 election). A Hillary candidacy would probably raise the anemic latino turnout in 2012 at 48% by a few pecentage points, perhaps all the way up to 55-57%. However, I'm pretty sure that the only way to succeed with what right now seems like an almost impossible task, to raise the latino turnout to 60% or beyond, would be to put one of theirs on the ballot. And to suggest that there doesn't even exist one single qualified person among the US' 53 million latinos is quite pathetic, to say the least. What an offensive remark really to 17% of the US population.

Uh, I never said that. We were talking about Julian Castro.

"not even one single qualified person among the US's 53 million Latinos" sounds pathetic and insulting to the untrained ear. But left out was the part about how it's "qualified to be president of the United States right now". Less insulting. Especially considering, most of those 53 million are under 14 years old.

Both Castros who are… 40? Almost 40? lack the resume. Hillary won't trade trying to boost the Latino vote for opening herself up to charges of letting politics drive her to put someone unqualified a heartbeat away. More likely to be a boring, safe pick. I don't think that changes too much if she has the kind of leads she now has though the odds of a female running mate go up somewhat.
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Mordecai
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« Reply #47 on: May 16, 2014, 07:07:28 AM »

Not going to happen. In 2008, in a perfect storm, Obama still only won by just over 7 points.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #48 on: May 16, 2014, 09:26:05 AM »

Not going to happen. In 2008, in a perfect storm, Obama still only won by just over 7 points.
To be fair to Obama, the Republicans arguably nominated their best candidate.

Obama would likely have done better against a Fred Thompson, Bill Frist or Rick Santorum.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #49 on: May 16, 2014, 09:30:28 AM »

Not going to happen. In 2008, in a perfect storm, Obama still only won by just over 7 points.
To be fair to Obama, the Republicans arguably nominated their best candidate.

Obama would likely have done better against a Fred Thompson, Bill Frist or Rick Santorum.
Obama would have probably received 55% of the vote against Rick Santorum in 2008 and possibly 2012 as well.
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