Which GOP candidates run only if another doesn't?

[Likely Voter]

On the Dem side it seems pretty clear that many potential candidates will sit out if Hillary runs, but are any GOP candidate runs contingent on who else runs (regardless of what they say in the press)?

Does Bush run if Christie runs?
Does Rubio run if Bush runs?
Does Ryan/Walker run if the other runs?
Do Kasich/Pence run if the other runs?
Does Romney run if no "mainstream" candidates jump in (or get traction)?
Does Huckabee get in if no other SoCon catches on?

And what of the transverse? Does King only run if Paul and/or Cruz run (so he can troll them)?

Any other if x then no y?

[RogueBeaver]

Bush may run if Christie does. Floridians and Cheesemen won't run against each other. Romney is out of politics.

[Maxwell]

It's not really trolling if Paul and Cruz have so little respect for King that they don't respond to his childish behavior.

[Never]

I think that Jeb Bush would bow out should either Rubio or Christie express that they will run for President. In fact, I believe that these three have enough personal respect for each other that only one of them will run.

Ryan could keep Walker out, but I think this is moot, considering that Ryan seems to be aiming towards advancing his congressional career now, and Walker is positioning himself for a presidential run.

I could see both Kasich and Pence running for president. They aren't really in the same circles, with Kasich focusing more on fiscal issues and Pence on social matters.

Romney might run if he doesn't think that there are any other viable candidates. The lack of strong contenders appears to be a major reason why Romney ran in 2012.

Regarding Huckabee, it depends on what you mean by SoCon. If you are setting up a field which lacks the kind of candidate that mainly focuses on social issues, like Santorum or, to a lesser extent, Pence or Jindal, he might still stay out, because there are many potential Republican candidates who are conservative on social issues, yet don't make them a major part of their campaign. For instance, Walker, Rubio, Bush, and Paul are all pro-life and supporters of traditional marriage, and it is plausible that Huckabee could endorse a candidate like that. On the other hand, in the highly unlikely event that the Republican candidates are primarily social moderates like Huntsman, Christie, or Portman, then Huckabee would surely jump in.

I don't think that King is going to run for president just because of Paul or Cruz running. I would simply expect him to endorse a mainstream candidate and actively campaign for him.

On that note, I think that we will only see one Tea Party senator run for president in 2016. If Paul runs, I think that Cruz would stay out and endorse Paul.

[Suburbia]

If Walker runs, Ryan does not, if Walker does not run, Ryan may get forced to run to be a "consensus" choice
If Jeb Bush runs, Rubio, Christie, Romney, Thune, Portman may not run, if Jeb does not run, Rubio, Christie, and Romney, Thune, Portman may not run unless the field is so lackluster.
If Perry runs, his loyal friend Jindal may run, but if Perry does not run, then, Jindal definitely gets in.
Huckabee runs if Santorum or Bachmann or some other Christian right candidate does not get in, but if Huckabee does not run, then Santorum may run unless he has family health issues.
I see Kasich running and Pence running at the same time, but Pence more likely.
Rand and Cruz may both run, but more likely Paul.

[Mr. Morden]

According to this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg4130065#msg4130065

some in Ryan's political orbit suggest that he'll run for the Ways & Means chairmanship and (initially) sit out the presidential race, but hold open the option of resigning his chairmanship midway through 2015 to run for prez, should the other top contenders falter and leave an opening for him.

Problem with that is that Ryan's good friend Scott Walker isn't going to want to wait around until July to declare his own candidacy.  So, provided that Walker wins reelection this year, I could see Walker losing patience with with Ryan by spring 2015, and announcing his own candidacy.  Ryan then is pressured into endorsing him.  Though if Walker has a Pawlenty-like early exit, and other candidates falter as well, then I guess it's not impossible for Ryan to get "drafted" into running.

[Bull Moose Base]

Why would Pence or Kasich defer to each other? Kasich-Portman seems more likely since they're both Ohians, thought they're moderation is in different places.

[Cory]

Why would Bush not run in favor of Rubio, who is clearly (I think) doomed? I understand they are both from Florida but I would think Bush is the "Senior Partner" of the two, and is the one who actually has a chance of winning.

[Orser67]

I read fairly recently that Rubio and Bush actually aren't all that close (although they don't dislike each other or anything), and wouldn't hesitate to run against each other. The fact that they're from the same state could matter at the margins for any decision, though.

I think Romney would consider running only if other establishment candidates didn't run or ran poorly. I could also see Mike Rogers seeking to fill a similar void.

I could see Mike Lee running if Cruz and other Tea Partiers don't.

[Donerail]

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So that settles at least one of them.

[Mr. Morden]

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So that settles at least one of them.

No it doesn't.  They all say stuff like that.  Rubio has to say that.  If he said "I'm going to defer to someone else", he'd look weak.  (Heck, Cuomo has said before that he wouldn't decide his own future plans based on whether Hillary Clinton runs….which is obviously preposterous.)

Should also note that this isn't just a question of how "close" these politicians are to each other.  It's about cutting into each other's fundraising base.  Running for president costs $, and it helps to at least be able to count on the major donors within your home state to support you.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Rubio will defer to Bush; he already has, IMO. 

Ryan will defer to Walker, who has to get re-elected first.

Kasich is in if he's reelected.

Romney and Huckabee have the luxury of late entries.  Folks know who they are, and as long as they aren't announced, they can keep low profiles and watch the lesser lights burn out with gaffes and errors.  I consider Huckabee to be far more likely than Romney to run, and I don't see Romney running if Jeb Bush runs, but Jeb Bush may be a tough sell.  A lot of Republicans think the Bush name is still toxic, and there's reason to believe this.