India 2014 - Results
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jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: May 22, 2014, 12:47:45 PM »

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/bjp-creates-history/

Points out that BJP's victory map looks a lot like the height of the Martha Empire in the mid 1700s with the exceptions of the BJP breakthrough in the Northeast.



Frankly, the reality is even closer than the map suggest as the Martha Empire hold on Orissa was tenuous at best and really should not be counted.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #326 on: May 22, 2014, 07:38:02 PM »

Although until this year they at least ran a Sikh candidate (former international cricketer, television personality and one time murderer Navjot Singh Sidhu), rather than a Hindu party apparatchik.

That shouldn't be surprising. After all Sikhs are one of the most pro BJP voting groups.

Is this primarily an outgrowth of the bad blood between the Sikh population and the Gandhis or are there other reasons for it as well?

What happened in 1984 has a large part to do with it. Also, refugees tend to be more anti-Pakistan and BJP is the party that is more anti-Pakistan.
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Sbane
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« Reply #327 on: May 22, 2014, 07:41:10 PM »

Although until this year they at least ran a Sikh candidate (former international cricketer, television personality and one time murderer Navjot Singh Sidhu), rather than a Hindu party apparatchik.

That shouldn't be surprising. After all Sikhs are one of the most pro BJP voting groups.

Is this primarily an outgrowth of the bad blood between the Sikh population and the Gandhis or are there other reasons for it as well?

Not really.  BJS and SAD has had alliances going back to the 1960s.  What took place in 1984 did not help.  On the other hand 1984 did not stop INC from having significant but not majority support in Sikh part of Punjab.  But INC is competitive there.

I bet Punjabi Hindus were voting mostly for the INC in 1984.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #328 on: May 24, 2014, 06:10:30 AM »


Apna Dal: I think this translates as "My Party" although "Our Party" would make more sense.
I'd go with "Your Party". Strictly speaking this'd be [predetermined subject's] "Own Party".
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Sol
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« Reply #329 on: May 24, 2014, 04:43:56 PM »

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« Reply #330 on: May 24, 2014, 06:53:54 PM »


Apna Dal: I think this translates as "My Party" although "Our Party" would make more sense.
I'd go with "Your Party". Strictly speaking this'd be [predetermined subject's] "Own Party".

Shades of みんなの党 ('Everyone's Party') becoming 'Your Party' in English.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #331 on: May 24, 2014, 07:12:11 PM »

Like the Northern English use of 'our'? ('wor' in the North East).
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Sbane
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« Reply #332 on: May 26, 2014, 07:14:48 PM »

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/delhi-muslims-muslim-voters-bjp-narendra-modi-delhi-lok-sabha-constituencies-harsh-vardhan-parvesh-singh-verma-ec-aap/1/362351.html

Looks like a sizeable amount of muslims may have voted for the  BJP, especially in areas where communalism is not as prevalent. I would have expected at least Chandni Chowk in Delhi to vote against the BJP but that did not happen.
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Hamster
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« Reply #333 on: May 26, 2014, 07:48:19 PM »

I don't know anything about Indian politics, but I'm curious whether the BJP is any more radical now than they were when they were in power from 1998 to 2004. Because reading through their wikipedia page, I've become worried they might start a nuclear war with Pakistan....
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ag
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« Reply #334 on: May 26, 2014, 07:55:24 PM »

I don't know anything about Indian politics, but I'm curious whether the BJP is any more radical now than they were when they were in power from 1998 to 2004. Because reading through their wikipedia page, I've become worried they might start a nuclear war with Pakistan....

BJP is a large and complex organization. It is hard to say whether the party is in any sense more "radical" these days. But, most certainly, Modi is no Vajpayee.
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Vosem
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« Reply #335 on: May 26, 2014, 07:59:32 PM »


Apna Dal: I think this translates as "My Party" although "Our Party" would make more sense.
I'd go with "Your Party". Strictly speaking this'd be [predetermined subject's] "Own Party".

This. "[Subject]'s Own" would be the translation.

As in svoy/svoya/svoyo/svoi?
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #336 on: May 26, 2014, 08:42:07 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2014, 08:46:02 PM by Sbane »

I don't know anything about Indian politics, but I'm curious whether the BJP is any more radical now than they were when they were in power from 1998 to 2004. Because reading through their wikipedia page, I've become worried they might start a nuclear war with Pakistan....

Considering that India hasn't even started a war since it became independent, I think it is a little ridiculous to think India might start a nuclear war. Obviously a lot of the hyperbole in the western media is borne out if ignorance. The BJP ran on a disciplined message about pro-growth policies, not starting wars or killing Muslims. A terrorist attack by Pakistan likely won't go unanswered under a BJP government but they are not going to start a nuclear war. Please tell me why India shouldn't be able to defend herself?

As for the foreign policy you should expect under a BJP government, you should google the Kargil war. Regarding the US  war on terror, they should find a more willing partner in the BJP. That is assuming they can get past their ignorance about the big, bad Hindu nationalists.
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Sbane
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« Reply #337 on: May 26, 2014, 09:26:10 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2014, 09:28:35 PM by Sbane »

I actually recently read that in Kargil, the RSS/VHP wanted Vajpayee to use nuclear weapons, and he (understandably) scoffed at the idea.

There are crazies out there like in any country but that does not describe the mainstream BJP. Even one led by Modi.

I read the BJP wiki article and found nothing in there that would make one think it is in favor of nuclear war. The anti-BJP propaganda in the west has reached stunning heights.
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ag
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« Reply #338 on: May 26, 2014, 11:53:09 PM »

Well, on one thing I would agree with Sbane: at least for the moment, the new government is a lot more dangerous for Indian Hindus than for Pakistani Muslims. Modi is not an idiot. So, he is a lot more likely to murder unarmed civilians than to start a war.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #339 on: May 27, 2014, 06:11:55 PM »

Well, on one thing I would agree with Sbane: at least for the moment, the new government is a lot more dangerous for Indian Hindus than for Pakistani Muslims. Modi is not an idiot. So, he is a lot more likely to murder unarmed civilians than to start a war.

I find your theory about Indian Hindus being at risk interesting. Could you elaborate on that?
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ag
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« Reply #340 on: May 27, 2014, 07:40:30 PM »

Well, on one thing I would agree with Sbane: at least for the moment, the new government is a lot more dangerous for Indian Hindus than for Pakistani Muslims. Modi is not an idiot. So, he is a lot more likely to murder unarmed civilians than to start a war.

I find your theory about Indian Hindus being at risk interesting. Could you elaborate on that?

Well, first of all, they are Indians Smiley If Modi decides that playing up communal violence is useful for his purposes, as at some point I think he will, he is not going to simply send the goons to attack Muslims or whomever. There would have to be a cause. The majority would have to feel aggrieved and endangered. Hence the violence would have to be mutual. There is nothing that provokes mass murder like fear: he will happily generate that.

I have long been trying to explain to you that I do not believe Modi to be a genocidal Muslim hater. He, probably, sincerely dislikes Muslims - but that is not the main problem. The main problem is that he has shown that in his opinion human life is worth literally nothing - at least, in comparison with him achieving his political goals.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #341 on: May 28, 2014, 02:02:24 AM »

Well, on one thing I would agree with Sbane: at least for the moment, the new government is a lot more dangerous for Indian Hindus than for Pakistani Muslims. Modi is not an idiot. So, he is a lot more likely to murder unarmed civilians than to start a war.

I find your theory about Indian Hindus being at risk interesting. Could you elaborate on that?

Well, first of all, they are Indians Smiley If Modi decides that playing up communal violence is useful for his purposes, as at some point I think he will, he is not going to simply send the goons to attack Muslims or whomever. There would have to be a cause. The majority would have to feel aggrieved and endangered. Hence the violence would have to be mutual. There is nothing that provokes mass murder like fear: he will happily generate that.

I have long been trying to explain to you that I do not believe Modi to be a genocidal Muslim hater. He, probably, sincerely dislikes Muslims - but that is not the main problem. The main problem is that he has shown that in his opinion human life is worth literally nothing - at least, in comparison with him achieving his political goals.

That is certainly an interesting theory. So Modi will get Muslims to attack Hindus which will lead to a reaction, basically?

Also, what I have been trying to tell you all this while is that I do not foresee a scenario where widespread communal violence will be to Modi's electoral advantage. You can make an argument that it would be to his advantage in a place like Assam, but that is mostly due to local factors on the ground and the threat for violence would remain even if the BJP didn't exist in that state. Otherwise, I don't see an advantage to communal violence. Perhaps if he can provoke Muslims into a violent reaction first, this plan might work. Otherwise the BJP will be judged on how well the economy is doing, and there is nothing they can do to change it. If communalism was that big of a deciding factor in how people vote, the BJP would have been winning landslides a long time ago.

Also, keep in mind that the BJP only won about 40% of the vote this time around. If they go the communalism route, there is a much greater chance of that 60% of the vote that didn't vote for them consolidating against them. In addition, even if the economy doesn't recover and the BJP is set to do worse than 2014, their goal would still be to win the most seats and form a coalition government, which they can't do if they go the divisive route. They could lose a 100 seats and still form a coalition government in 2019.
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Potus
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« Reply #342 on: May 28, 2014, 02:09:20 AM »

Prime Minister Modi's inauguration was attended by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The two heads of government celebrated Modi's inauguration together. This is a major step, five years after the attacks on Mumbai, to relieving tensions on the subcontinent.

Sharif is the same guy that ordered a nuke test because India did one. He is no lover of India, by my understanding, which makes this event even more positive. He'll have to contend with the deeply embedded radicalism and terrorist elements within his own government, however.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #343 on: May 29, 2014, 06:28:12 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZdH94R6XwQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAR3cb1V_ss

These two videos of the interview of Fareed Zakaria by John Oliver has to be the most reasonable and knowledgeable analysis of the Indian election I have seen in the western media. As you might expect, it didn't actually come from the media. It also stands in stark contrast to the hysteria we saw on this thread. I recommend that anyone who wants to better understand the context of this election, watch this interview. I should point out that Fareed is a muslim guy who actually grew up in India.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #344 on: May 31, 2014, 11:36:03 AM »

Fascinating results. I have to admit that I am in the camp that doesn't think a Modi government will lead to all sorts of disasters and I think India needs the economic reforms that are now more likely.

At the same time, I think it's fair to not want to vote for him due to the riots, the RSS connections and so on.

As am I. This thread is bizarre. The analysis above is very good, but then again, Zakaria almost always is.
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: May 31, 2014, 01:54:52 PM »

I think Brookings Institution's 2014 India election preview and AAR are very good

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJhwXdu33fk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyTUKQNfaAk

They are pretty long but well worth it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #346 on: May 31, 2014, 02:06:24 PM »

The NDA victory is fairly deep and resilient.  Only 40 out of the 336 NDA seats were won with a margin of 5% or less.  This means even if there was a swing of 2.5% across the board toward the strongest non-NDA candidate which would put the NDA vote share at 35.95%, NDA would have still won 296 seats and a solid majority.  In fact if we make the margin of victory threshold at 10% only 96 of the 336 were won with a margin of 10% or less.  So even if NDA lost 5% in every seat to the strongest non-NDA candidate and end up with a 33.45% of the vote share they would have still had 238 seats and could have pulled in AIADMK and perhaps TRS or YSRCP to form a government.  In such a case TDP would have been wiped out by YSRCP and NDA could have dumped TDP and got YSRCP on board.  To be able to get 238 seats on a 33.45% vote share and form a government is quite impressive.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #347 on: May 31, 2014, 09:11:20 PM »

I think Brookings Institution's 2014 India election preview and AAR are very good

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJhwXdu33fk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyTUKQNfaAk

They are pretty long but well worth it.

Yeah I watched those. Thought about posting them but they are very long. Again, great analysis.
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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: June 01, 2014, 03:52:38 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2014, 04:13:38 PM by jaichind »

A funny story from Mahasamund which is in Chhattisgarh

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/the-curious-case-of-chandu-lal-sahu/

What is going on is former INC Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi is running for his old seat that he won in 2004 in an attempt at a political comeback and unseat the BJP incumbent Chandu Lal Sahu.  Funny thing took place along the way.  It seems that no less than 10 other Chandu Lal Sahu also registered as independents to run against the original Chandu Lal Sahu.  They are from all over Chhattisgarh since one does not have to live in the district to run.  All of them had no idea they were registered as candidates until told by the ECI.  Most of them are BJP supporters but once they were registered most of them did attempt to campaign (mostly from encouragement from their relatives or paid by what seems to be INC operatives)  even though they knew this was most likely a Ajit Jogi or INC trick to split the vote.  One of them even lived in Mahasamund and even after campaigning for himself voted for the BJP Chandu Lal Sahu as he was BJP supporter.

Some of these Chandu Lal Sahu had net worth of only $150 but somehow were able to spend tens of thousands of US dollars equivalents on campaigning.  

This almost worked as Ajit Jogi lost by only 0.1% of the vote and the various independent Chandu Lal Sahu actually took over 70,000 votes which was over 6% of the vote.  


(this picture missed another Chandu Lal Sahu, the 11th on the list who got 4718 votes is called "Chandoo Lal Sahu" and should also count as one of these independent Chandu Lal Sahu that is running)

While it seems obvious that this is a Ajit Jogi trick, it is also possible that enemies of Ajit Jogi within the INC that does not want him to make a political comeback might have done this to frame him.

Some pictures of these other Chandu Lal Sahu below shows you that it is clear none of them are professional politicians of any sort and are most Bubbas and BillyBobs in a backward tribal state.
 

This is actually picture of the father of the candidate
Chandu Sahu, 25
Bhatigarh village, Gariyaband district
Father Tej Ram says his son didn’t get the $850 he was promised for contesting.





Chandu Sahu, 61
Taulideeh village, Baloda Bazar
He contested ‘to seek justice for murdered son’.





Chandu Sahu, 39
Tarpongi village, Mahasamund
He has a head for politics and likes Narendra Modi





Chandu Sahu, 64
Tundra village, Baloda Bazar
The farmer has contested one other election before, that of a village panch





Chandu Sahu, 43
Goindra village, Mungeli
During campaigning, the farmer moved around in a Bolero Congressmen had arranged for him





Chandu Sahu, 27
Temri village, Raipur
The flour mill owner was the only one who didn’t campaign.





This is the house of the candidate
Chandu Sahu, 55
Durgpali, Mahasamund
The farm labourer lives in this house





Chandu Sahu, 28
Bhainsa village, Raipur
Owner of this bike repair shop, he got a heat stroke during the campaign but kept going.





This is the bike repair shop of the candidate
Chandu Sahu, 26
Gadsivni village, Mahasamund
To escape the media, he went missing from his village, leaving his cycle repair shop, above, shut





Chandu Sahu, 60
Ghaunch village, Mahasamund
The daily wage labourer says he probably got 7,000 votes, “that’s what people tell me”
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swl
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« Reply #349 on: June 01, 2014, 04:48:22 PM »

It would have been better to elect one of these guys rather than another professional politician.
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