India 2014 - Results

[Frodo]

Interesting perspective on why the BJP victory last night may not be as historic as often claimed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting article here.

Another pissed off socialist. I am not going to take an article seriously if it is against greater privatization of the "government". Government shouldn't be running things like airlines and phone companies.

That's a pity because the article engages with the arguments that you've put forward in this thread.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting perspective on why the BJP victory last night may not be as historic as often claimed.

It's certainly unusual to see balanced and well informed articles about this election, but that does look to be one of them.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

A cursory glance at constituency-level results suggests that this election is historic: the BJP performed very strongly among city dwellers in every region in India.

Here are a few examples:

Kolkata Uttar
AITMC 35 (-17)
BJP 25 (+21)
CPI 20 (-20)

Thiruvananthapuram
INC 34 (-10)
BJP 32 (+22)
CPI 28 (-2)

Mumbai North Central
BJP 57 (+35)
INC 35 (-14)

Lucknow
BJP 54 (+19)
INC 28 (-0)
BSP 6 (-16)

[njwes]

Sbane, could you please stop hijacking this thread? This isn't the Indian equivalent of RedState: socialism isn't a slur and privatization is objectionable from the standpoint of many academic economists. We get it, you like Modi and hate the Indian left. You've made your point.

If Sbane's comments constitute "hijacking the thread," then the constant insistence that Modi is on the verge of committing anti-Muslim genocide is surely hijacking as well.

[Hash]

Everybody tone it down a notch.

[Sbane]

Interesting article here.

Another pissed off socialist. I am not going to take an article seriously if it is against greater privatization of the "government". Government shouldn't be running things like airlines and phone companies.

That's a pity because the article engages with the arguments that you've put forward in this thread.

Oh, I read it, even if it was highly painful. Mr. Mishra seems to be another one of those people who live in some sort of fantasy land and doesn't understand how the economy works. He argues against the reality on the ground that standard of living in India for most people has improved since economic liberalization which began more than 20 years ago. I also found it amusing that he seemed to like that everyone had access to cell phones, but did not mention that would not have happened without the privatization and deregulation of the telecommunications sector.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think in general that discussion is fine and that even a bit of heated discussion is acceptable: Modi is the man of the moment and Modi is an extremely controversial man. But I think we should not step any further in that way than we all have done already: angry debate is acceptable, flame wars would not be.

You're simply incorrect if you think BJP is the only political party in India which has/is using religion.

No one has argued otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think that anyone here has argued that Congress is perfect.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A cursory glance at constituency-level results suggests that this election is historic: the BJP performed very strongly among city dwellers in every region in India.

Here are a few examples:

Kolkata Uttar
AITMC 35 (-17)
BJP 25 (+21)
CPI 20 (-20)

Thiruvananthapuram
INC 34 (-10)
BJP 32 (+22)
CPI 28 (-2)

Mumbai North Central
BJP 57 (+35)
INC 35 (-14)

Lucknow
BJP 54 (+19)
INC 28 (-0)
BSP 6 (-16)

Lucknow, at least, is a traditional BJP stronghold. Bombay has also often voted that way as well, as has Delhi (obviously). Still, I don't think Congress now hold any entirely urban constituencies? That is presumably a first.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

I appreciate Sbane's comments and I see no reason to be hurtful to each other. Sbane is an excellent expertise. If someone is angry because BJP has won, what is understandable, if you are on the left, it should not projected onto him. I really like this thread and learned lots about Indian politics.

[ag]

I appreciate Sbane's comments and I see no reason to be hurtful to each other. Sbane is an excellent expertise. If someone is angry because BJP has won, what is understandable, if you are on the left, it should not projected onto him. I really like this thread and lerned lots about Indian politics.

I should just would like to point out, that, being a commited pro-free-market economist, I am, probably, to the right of Modi on many - likely, most - economics-related issues. I just believe that discussion of economic matters is immoral, when the subject is an unrepentant mass murderer. There are things one should never forgive or forget. As the Economist wrote in its obituary of Pinochet, "No ifs or buts: whatever the general did for the economy, he was a bad man". That is the only way to talk about such people: ever.

And what are we getting instead? "Hitler elected German chancellor. Major progress expected on highway construction program".

Anyways, Sbane has, obviously, been making only germane comments: no hijacking of anything detected. Equally, I think, I am in my right to let him know, that, when sh**t happens, I will make certain to remind him of his present attitude.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

I appreciate Sbane's comments and I see no reason to be hurtful to each other. Sbane is an excellent expertise. If someone is angry because BJP has won, what is understandable, if you are on the left, it should not projected onto him. I really like this thread and lerned lots about Indian politics.

And what are we getting instead? "Hitler elected German chancellor. Major progress expected on highway construction program".

Please feel not be attacked, but this might interest you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

[Famous Mortimer]

Telangana Assembly:

Telangana Rashtra Samithi 61
Congress 20
Telugu Desam 16
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen 7
BJP 5
YSR Congress 3
CPI 1
CPI (M) 1

Seemaandhra/Andhra Pradesh Assembly:

Telugu Desam 102
YSR Congress 67
BJP 4
Others 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2014

Arunachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly:

Congress 42
BJP 11
People's Party of Arunachal 7

Odisha Legislative Assembly

Biju Janata Dal 110
Congress 18
BJP 18
Others 2

Sikkim Legislative Assembly:

Sikkim Democratic Front 22
Congress 10

(note that in the last election, SDF won all 32 seats)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Congress performing better in the state polls? Or just fortunate?

[ag]

I appreciate Sbane's comments and I see no reason to be hurtful to each other. Sbane is an excellent expertise. If someone is angry because BJP has won, what is understandable, if you are on the left, it should not projected onto him. I really like this thread and lerned lots about Indian politics.

And what are we getting instead? "Hitler elected German chancellor. Major progress expected on highway construction program".

Please feel not be attacked, but this might interest you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

I have not been born yesterday, you know I am fully aware of Godwin's law And I made the comparison I made in full awareness that somebody is going to bring it up: because I do consider it perfectly appropriate.

I am not arguing here, in any case. I am not trying to convince anyone of anything (too late for that, anyway).I am simply warning.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Sorry for getting everybody off-track. To clarify: I thought the general tone of the thread was going downhill quickly and was getting irritated by the discussion so I lashed out at Sbane and created the meta-hijack.

Topic for discussion: the BJP's skillful use of social media. Has anyone else noticed that the comments section of any article on the Indian election features at least 10 pro-Modi posts that all fall along similar lines?

[Famous Mortimer]

Sorry for getting everybody off-track. To clarify: I thought the general tone of the thread was going downhill quickly and was getting irritated by the discussion so I lashed out at Sbane and created the meta-hijack.

Topic for discussion: the BJP's skillful use of social media. Has anyone else noticed that the comments section of any article on the Indian election features at least 10 pro-Modi posts that all fall along similar lines?

Not really surprising. In third world countries, it's only the rich who have the internet. Of course the rich are going to libertarian capitalists.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot are also ex-pats. But, yes, BJP trolls are definitely a thing.

[jaichind]

Interesting perspective on why the BJP victory last night may not be as historic as often claimed.

I very much agree with this that is why I kept on posting all these comparisons on vote share by alliance. Although I would say this time the BJP did make a breakthrough in Bihar this time.  Historically, unless the BJP is allied with another senior partner in Bihar it usually runs third in Bihar behind INC and another regional party.  This time it by itself became the largest party in Bihar on its own.

On the vote share by alliance, I did map out what the the various alliances got in terms of vote share and seats.  I define UPA as INC and allies, NDA as BJP and allies, Third Front as alternative front of regional that ally with Left Front, Forth Front as rivals regional parties of Third Front and most likely involve BSP.  Of course election to election there are all kinds of shifts on who is in which alliance and in what states.  I computed this data as far back as 1989 by looking at results on state by state basis.  Note that I define vote share and seats won to be sum of votes on a state by state basis of the alliances parties.  For example, SS runs candidates in states outside of Maharashtra against BJP where their alliance does not hold.  So SS votes and seats (there are none) they win outside  Maharashtra does not count toward NDA.  Likewise I count independents that ran with the support of said alliance as for the alliance itself.


Year  UPA                     NDA                      TF                              FF
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1989  41.61%   215     12.96%   97         34.69%    201
1991  39.34%   259     20.86% 124         27.72%    135           3.34%     5
1996  29.77%    143     23.83% 186         28.70%    177           5.74%   19
1998  30.29%    167     37.39% 257         22.67%    104           4.71%     5
1999  34.72%    140     40.86% 301         14.76%      80           4.16%   14
2004  36.74%    226     35.88% 189         14.64%    108           5.33%   19
2009  36.78%    262     24.29% 159         21.66%      83           7.56%   28
2014  23.13%      59     38.45% 336         18.33%      96         10.90%   45

Of course one observes that UPA at 23.13% in 2014 is easily its worst performance ever.  On the other hand it is quite comparable in terms of vote share with NDA in 2009.  And we saw how NDA managed to recover from that.  It is also about the same as NDA in 1996 when it emerged as the largest alliance in terms of seats.  

The NDA vote share of 38.45% in 2014 is really not that much greater than what UPA got in 2004 and 2009 and somewhat less than what NDA got in 1999.  It is less than UPA in 1989 and 1991 when both elections UPA failed to win a majority.  It is also not much different from NDA in 1998 when it failed to get a majority on its own, just like UPA in 2009.

What took place here is the diffusion of the anti-NDA vote among different voting alliances and ineffective tactical voting to defeat NDA.  The negativity toward 10 years of UPA government could be one reason why there was not an energetic tactical voting by the anti-NDA blocs.


 

[jaichind]

Congress performing better in the state polls? Or just fortunate?

These states that had state polls are those states which traditionally INC are stronger than BJP.  Other than Arunachal Pradesh, based on how strong INC are in those states, these results are still a disaster for INC.

[jaichind]

Interesting perspective on why the BJP victory last night may not be as historic as often claimed.

I do take issue with one quote "First, as of the most recent counting, almost 70 percent of Indians did not vote for the BJP"

I do not agree with this.  38.37% of the voters voted for a party which was explicitly in an alliance dominated by the BJP if not the BJP itself.  All these alliance parties indicated that they will support Modi as PM.  Also almost 1% of the vote went to NMS and INLD both which although rivals of BJP in their respective states also indicate that they will support Modi as PM. So one can assume that around 39%-40% of the vote when to parties that were for Modi as PM.   I would change their quote to be

"First, as of the most recent counting, almost 60 percent of Indians did not vote for a pro-BJP pro-Modi election bloc"

[BigSkyBob]

Sbane, could you please stop hijacking this thread? This isn't the Indian equivalent of RedState: socialism isn't a slur and privatization is objectionable from the standpoint of many academic economists. We get it, you like Modi and hate the Indian left. You've made your point.

Privatization may very well be "objectionable from the standpoint of many academic economists," but, isn't the real issue here whether, or not, it is objectionable from the standpoint of the Truth? And, more to the point, since this is an Indian election the question is whether, or not, it is objectionable from the perspective of the Indian electorate.

Seems it isn't based on the most recent election.

Aside from the fact that Sbane seems more in line with reason.com than readstate.com, I find it odd that in a thread that seems dominated with poster after poster issuing content-less ad hominem slurs about Modi being a "murderer" and a "fascist,"  [A quick lesson. A communist is a person who believes in nationalizing the means of production without compensation. A socialist is a person who believes in nationalizing the means of production with compensation. A fascist is a person who believes in nationalizing the goals of the means of production while allowing it to remain in private hands. A market liberal believes that the owners of the means of production should set their own goals.] one poster has the audacity to take the side of the governing plurality in India, and question the validity of the ad hominems and is accused of "hijacking" the thread as a result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's hardly a slur to call Modi a fascist. He is one. Parts of India have also had democratically elected Communist governments.

[BigSkyBob]

It's hardly a slur to call Modi a fascist. He is one. Parts of India have also had democratically elected Communist governments.

Technically, a "fascist" is a person who advocates nationalizing the goals and direction of the means of production while leaving them in private hands is? Clearly, the term "fascist" has been bandied about here as a subjective slur as opposed to an objective technical description of his economic policies.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

oh my god you're back

Quick tip: Modi's economic policies are generally not what people who point out that he is a fascist murderer are focused on. That's kind of the point.