Virginia in Presidential Elections
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Virginia in Presidential Elections
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Poll
Question: Virginia is a?
#1
Lean D state
 
#2
About even but trending D
 
#3
Perfectly Even
 
#4
About even but trending R
 
#5
Lean R state
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: Virginia in Presidential Elections  (Read 2623 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 15, 2014, 11:31:45 PM »

Thoughts
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2014, 12:56:47 AM »

I think it is the Kentucky to Obama's Clinton. A normally conservative state flipped both times for a popular at the time Democrat. I would be lying if I said NoVa is not becoming a growing influence, but considering how much Ken Cooch outperformed expectations and only lost because of a spoiler, the spirit is definitely still there. I'll have to wait for 2016 (neutral ground as I see it since I don't see Hillary running) to be able to start gauging where it is heading.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2014, 01:13:27 AM »

Obama's 2012 margin in Virginia almost exactly match his margin nation wide.

That said, Virginia is strongly trending D.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2014, 06:18:21 AM »

Option 2
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sg0508
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2014, 07:33:30 AM »

In an election where Obama lost approximately 2% on average for each state, he did so in the Old Dominion and still won it by almost four points.  That says something.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2014, 09:04:33 AM »

About even but trending D.  I've said it time and again: Virginia may be a southern state geographically, but rapidly becoming more like a northeastern state politically and culturally.
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senyor_brownbear
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2014, 11:03:00 AM »

I think it is the Kentucky to Obama's Clinton. A normally conservative state flipped both times for a popular at the time Democrat. I would be lying if I said NoVa is not becoming a growing influence, but considering how much Ken Cooch outperformed expectations and only lost because of a spoiler, the spirit is definitely still there. I'll have to wait for 2016 (neutral ground as I see it since I don't see Hillary running) to be able to start gauging where it is heading.

Cooch would have lost even if he were given every one of the fairly liberal Sarvis' votes.  Plus, this was an off-year election.  Of course Democrats weren't going to turn out.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2014, 12:17:45 PM »

Perfectly even.

I think Virginia (especially outer NoVa) will develop a pro-incumbent bent in future elections. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2014, 12:32:36 PM »

I think it is the Kentucky to Obama's Clinton. A normally conservative state flipped both times for a popular at the time Democrat. I would be lying if I said NoVa is not becoming a growing influence, but considering how much Ken Cooch outperformed expectations and only lost because of a spoiler, the spirit is definitely still there. I'll have to wait for 2016 (neutral ground as I see it since I don't see Hillary running) to be able to start gauging where it is heading.

Cooch would have lost even if he were given every one of the fairly liberal Sarvis' votes.  Plus, this was an off-year election.  Of course Democrats weren't going to turn out.

That's incorrect.  Sarvis exceeded McAuliffe's margin of victory by almost 3X.  That said, the "default" for VA GOV races in modern times has been a 10%ish loss for the incumbent president's party. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2014, 12:35:48 PM »

To answer the poll, Option 2.  However I do have a suspicion it's more like Bush's West Virginia wins than Clinton's Kentucky wins.  It wouldn't shock me if VA votes like MD in the 2020's.
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Bureaucat
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2014, 01:00:08 PM »

I think it is the Kentucky to Obama's Clinton. A normally conservative state flipped both times for a popular at the time Democrat. I would be lying if I said NoVa is not becoming a growing influence, but considering how much Ken Cooch outperformed expectations and only lost because of a spoiler, the spirit is definitely still there. I'll have to wait for 2016 (neutral ground as I see it since I don't see Hillary running) to be able to start gauging where it is heading.

Cooch would have lost even if he were given every one of the fairly liberal Sarvis' votes.  Plus, this was an off-year election.  Of course Democrats weren't going to turn out.

How were Sarvis voters liberal?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2014, 01:25:46 PM »

I think it is the Kentucky to Obama's Clinton. A normally conservative state flipped both times for a popular at the time Democrat. I would be lying if I said NoVa is not becoming a growing influence, but considering how much Ken Cooch outperformed expectations and only lost because of a spoiler, the spirit is definitely still there. I'll have to wait for 2016 (neutral ground as I see it since I don't see Hillary running) to be able to start gauging where it is heading.

Cooch would have lost even if he were given every one of the fairly liberal Sarvis' votes.  Plus, this was an off-year election.  Of course Democrats weren't going to turn out.

How were Sarvis voters liberal?

Well Sarvis emphasized social issues in his campaign.  He was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage for example.  He ran an ad about abortion from the left.
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Edu
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2014, 01:32:15 PM »

According to this exit poll, it appears that Jarvis voters were more liberal than conservative (7% to 3%) and they were basically equal in terms of Republican-Democratic (4% to 3%).

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html
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Suburbia
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2014, 05:28:29 PM »

Excellent question. I think still tossup, but somewhat trending D.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2014, 06:57:34 PM »

According to this exit poll, it appears that Jarvis voters were more liberal than conservative (7% to 3%) and they were basically equal in terms of Republican-Democratic (4% to 3%).

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

So his best performance (if we can call it best) was with the very most moderate R's who couldn't stomach Cuccinelli.  Now if he wasn't in the race, would they have gone to McAuliffe or stayed home?

My major question is whether we can ascribe any statistical meaning to the 1977-2009 tendency for the out-party to win VA gov?  I.E. should we have gone into 2013 expecting a 50/50 race or would we be justified in expecting 55/45 (or 52/48) Cuccinelli, all else being equal?
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Never
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2014, 11:09:09 AM »

I think that Virginia is an even tossup. Considering that there are relatively few swing states right now, it seems that Virginia is going to be a must-win state for both parties for a while.
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excelsus
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2014, 11:29:51 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2014, 04:13:24 AM by excelsus »

I think Virginia has taken over from Missouri as the bellwether state #1.
It is a melting pot of the Middle Atlantic, the Atlantic South and Appalachia, representing a microcosm of the USA as a whole.

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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2014, 01:06:04 PM »

Virginia can probably be classified as a lean-Democratic swing state at this point in time.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2014, 09:33:07 PM »

In terms of PVI margins relative to the national margin......

1996: R+10.48%
2000: R+8.56%
2004: R+5.74%
2008: R+0.96%
2012: D+0.01%

Does anyone besides Dick Morris, Dean Chambers, and our friends at the conservative forum dispute the fact that Virginia is trending Democrat very quickly?
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Smash255
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2014, 10:08:12 PM »

Right now option 2, very soon to be option 1
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2014, 01:27:52 PM »

Virginia has gone from Solid R to about even very quickly. Virginia was the sort of state that that Republicans could count on in any Presidential election except a 40+ state D landslide. Carter didn't win it when he won every other former Confederate state in 1976; Clinton never won it.  Virginia is an R disaster in the making.
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Smash255
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2014, 01:38:08 PM »

Virginia has gone from Solid R to about even very quickly. Virginia was the sort of state that that Republicans could count on in any Presidential election except a 40+ state D landslide. Carter didn't win it when he won every other former Confederate state in 1976; Clinton never won it.  Virginia is an R disaster in the making.

Already is
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2014, 01:42:16 PM »

I think Virginia has taken over from Missouri as the bellwether state #1.
It is a melting pot of the Middle Atlantic, the Pacific South and Appalachia, representing a microcosm of the USA as a whole.



Pacific South?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2014, 02:30:42 PM »

Lean D
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sg0508
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« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2014, 11:40:39 AM »

The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.
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