Virginia in Presidential Elections

[Never]

The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.

I don't think that has happened just yet. Looking at Barack Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012, it seems like the Democrats still needed Richmond and the Hampton Roads areas in addition to NoVa. Don't get me wrong, Northern Virginia is a great help for the Democrats and gets them very close to victory, but if Democrats only drew votes from this region and weren't strong in other parts of the state, they would probably consistently lose presidential elections for a while.

[Rockefeller GOP]

In terms of PVI margins relative to the national margin......

1996: R+10.48%
2000: R+8.56%
2004: R+5.74%
2008: R+0.96%
2012: D+0.01%

Does anyone besides Dick Morris, Dean Chambers, and our friends at the conservative forum dispute the fact that Virginia is trending Democrat very quickly?

Absolutely not.  However, some are acting like it's completely gone as early as 2016, and I disagree with that.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I remember watching a clip of ABC's Election Night coverage in 2000, and Peter Jennings mentioned that the fastest-growing regions of Virginia (the NoVa suburbs around DC) were the most Democrat ones.  That seems to have borne out in the 13-14 years since then.

[GaussLaw]

While Virginia is trending D, it's important to remember that candidates affect performance in different states.  While Appalachia has been trending steadily R, most forumites agree this will be reversed at least somewhat with a Clinton run.  The opposite can hold true as well.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

While Virginia is trending D, it's important to remember that candidates affect performance in different states.  While Appalachia has been trending steadily R, most forumites agree this will be reversed at least somewhat with a Clinton run.  The opposite can hold true as well.

Good deduction Watson, and good analysis.

[Frodo]

About evenly matched -but 2016 is the last time the GOP (as currently constituted) can win this state before Northern Virginia grows too heavily populated and Democratic such that it outweighs the rest of the state.  

Of course, if the GOP wins the Senate this November by winning every seat I am projecting they will win, and Jeb Bush not only wins his party's nomination, but also narrowly beats Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Republican Party may have one last opportunity to pass an immigration reform measure shaped to suit its preference.  In such a scenario, the GOP may have a new lease on life in this state.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.

I rate VA a "lean D" at this time.  The Republicans need to prove themselves.  Cuccinelli's loss was due to shifting demographics.  McAuliffe was really an unsavory candidate who people didn't like, but independent voters in VA aren't social conservatives.

[sg0508]

It's the youth vote that changed the Old Dominion in a hurry.  The GOP offers NOTHING in terms of what Millenials want or value. Now, we can all say the Millenials will eventually run the country into the ground, and it may be true, but this I will say about that generation (mine)....it's 90% about the social issues (mostly progressive) and only 10% economic.  Most Millenials do not give two damns about fiscal responsibility, one of the reasons this country is screwed, but they do tend to favor gay marriage, weed legalization, and abortion rights, not to mention the "entitlement" belief that society/gov't should clean up their crap if/when they screw up.  The Democratic Party caters to that very well. 

By the way, I'm a Millenial, and as a guy who took his education very seriously and has been working since I'm 14, I'm horrified at this generation.  We don't have a chance.

Northern VA is mostly young people folks that love DC and the DC suburbs.  Few to none of those people are voting Republican.

[DINGO Joe]

The Lt. Gov race last fall was the most interesting.  Old, white rural VA voted about as R as they could, while metro Richmond and the Tidewater just weren't going to put up with that at all.  About as sharp of a cleavage as you could get.

[Never]

I  don't think anyone's arguing that Northern VA alone can carry the state...  No one region can carry any state (with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions)...  But it's getting to the point where democrats merely need to break even or close to even in the swing regions to win the state because NOVA is growing so strong.  It's becoming the equivalent of NYC to NY State.

This seems spot on.

The only thing is that NoVA isn't as populous compared to the rest of Virginia as New York City is to the state of New York, which just slightly complicates things for Democrats.

Looking at recent presidential elections in Virginia, it seems like the outer NoVA suburbs and  competitive counties in the southern and central parts of the Old Dominion are where elections will be won in the future.

[pbrower2a]

The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.

Northern Virginia has become more like Greater Boston than like Greater Knoxville. Democrats can win Virginia based on a coalition of government employees in northern Virginia, similar types in Greater Richmond, and blacks in all economic strata. Virginia, like Maryland, has a very large black population. Politically it is becoming an upscale version of Michigan.

[TDAS04]

Option 2 is the correct answer.

[sg0508]

Do not forget that Mark Warner castrated John Kerry for giving up on VA so early in 2004.  Warner tends to come across as one of the more blunt and honest politicians and he said the Old Dominion was winnable for Kerry in 2004 (he lost it by eight points with a virtual pullout in the summer).

Even if Bush had won the state, which he probably would have, Kerry never made him sweat there the way Bush forced Kerry to spend time in MI, MN, etc...states that in the end, we knew would probably go Democratic in that cycle. 

It was pretty clear even back in 2000 that VA was changing.

[Adam Griffin]

It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.

Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.

Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...