KY-Bluegrass (SUSA): Grimes +1, McConnell safe in Primary

[publicunofficial]

Link


Grimes (D) - 43%
McConnell (R) - 42%
Marksberry (I) - 4%
Patterson (L) - 4%

McConnell - 55
Bevin - 35

[IceSpear]

Likely R!!!!!!

[publicunofficial]

Raw data here


Favorabilities:


Mitch McConnell: 29/49
Alison Lundergan Grimes: 35/27
Matt Bevin: 22/25
Barack Obama: 29/57


Job Approval:


Mitch McConnell: 34/56
Alison Lundergan Grimes: 46/32

[publicunofficial]

Following the trendlines, McConnell is still as unpopular as he was in February while Grimes has gained in popularity.

[Maxwell]

Some of those numbers are odd, but nevertheless, it makes sense. Move this to toss-up, or at least Lean Dem.

[Lief 🗽]

Mitch McConnell: 29/49
Mitch McConnell: 34/56

Jesus christ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This will be a good pickup to def McConnell.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Every time I see "KY" and "SUSA" together, I always get worried. But when SUSA says it's +1 for a Democrat, you know the GOP is in trouble.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

And yet Sabato won't budge from Likely R

[publicunofficial]

And yet Sabato won't budge from Likely R

I don't know how he can say with a straight face that Jeanne Shaheen has a better chance of losing than Mitch McConnell.

[Flake]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Survey USA on 2014-05-16

Summary: D: 43%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[windjammer]

Still lean rep for me.
Sorry, but I still don't see Mcconnell losing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ALG or Nunn has a definate chance of winning.

[ElectionsGuy]

ALG or Nunn has a definate chance of winning.

No

[SPC]

Considering neither candidate has had a lead outside the margin of error throughout the campaign (unlike in 2008 when McConnell consistently led Lunsford), I suspect people are too quick to write off Grimes's chances. While the common argument is that McConnell has a built-in advantage as an incumbent party leader in a friendly state in a midterm year, I would question how much of those advantages are already factored into McConnell's performance. Given McConnell's abysmal approval ratings, isn't the fact that this race is still within the margin of error a testament that McConnell's advantages are already keeping Grimes from having a significant lead?

[Free Bird]

ALG or Nunn has a definate chance of winning.

No

Elaborate

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With the Kentucky media hammering Grimes on everything, it's amazing she's ahead at all.

[Del Tachi]

I'm keeping this one as "Likley Rep" for me.

The national climate is just not favorable to Democrats, and the GOP will make sure that this doesn't fall before they pump money into states like CO, IA, or MI.   

[ElectionsGuy]

ALG or Nunn has a definate chance of winning.

No

Elaborate

Either one of them, by no means, has a "definite" chance of winning. Its the equivalent of saying either Terri Lynn Land or Cory Gardner has a definite chance of winning.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What worries me is that Grimes seems stuck in the low forties and (IIRC) this is the first poll to show her leading.  A large majority of the undecideds will probably break towards McConnell and Kentucky is a state that has been trending hard towards the Republican party for quite a while.  It also lacks the significant African-American population of states like Georgia, North Carolina, etc.  Even in Arkansas, the percentage of the population that is African-Americans is more than twice as high as in Kentucky.  There's also the coal-related issues, but I don't think I need to elaborate on that.  Grimes is a very strong candidate (probably the best one we could have recruited with the possible exception of Steve Beshear) and she is clearly running against a ridiculously unpopular incumbent.  However, I'm not convinced that that's enough for a Democrat to get elected to the Senate in Kentucky in the current political climate.

[IceSpear]

Considering neither candidate has had a lead outside the margin of error throughout the campaign (unlike in 2008 when McConnell consistently led Lunsford), I suspect people are too quick to write off Grimes's chances. While the common argument is that McConnell has a built-in advantage as an incumbent party leader in a friendly state in a midterm year, I would question how much of those advantages are already factored into McConnell's performance. Given McConnell's abysmal approval ratings, isn't the fact that this race is still within the margin of error a testament that McConnell's advantages are already keeping Grimes from having a significant lead?

Exactly. McConnell's awful approval rating and favorability would normally be giving Grimes a double digit lead. Anti-Obama sentiment, Kentucky's redness, and the overall climate is the thing that's keeping it a tie, it's not a yet to be unleashed factor that will give McConnell an easy win, as many pundits seem to think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2012 was the tipping pt. KY wants to be in Maj not in min. McCinnell failed to deliver goods.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2012 was the tipping pt. KY wants to be in Maj not in min. McCinnell failed to deliver goods.

So, you're saying that as long as a McConnell win in KY gets republicans to some point at or above their needed net gain of 6 (when combined with all the other results), it'll go for McConnell, and if the senate stays democratic regardless of how KY goes, KY will go democratic?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reid survived a race he clearly he should have lost based on a weaker than expected opponent. Angle instead of Lowden. Also, based on his effectiveness on keeping his caucus United on key votes and maintaining Maj. McConnell saw his caucus split away from him on TARP and rescinding the Bush tax cuts. That's why he is in the political fight of his career.

[Ogre Mage]

This is probably the closest senate race in the county based on the polling for the last 6 months.  Now that Bevin has been dispatched, will Grimes numbers hold up once McConnell turns his attack machine on her full time?  She has done well to keep up so far, but the next few months will be a big test for her campaign.  On the other hand, McConnell has never run against a candidate like Grimes before.

At present I'd have to still consider McConnell a slight favorite to win reelection, even with his horrible approval ratings.  Obama is a painful albatross for Grimes in KY, worse than for Michelle Nunn, who, as others have noted, has a large minority population to fall back on in GA.  Nunn also can continue to watch Perdue and Kingston claw at one another during the runoff campaign.  Grimes doesn't have that luxury.