Hillary Clinton-Julian Castro ticket
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  Hillary Clinton-Julian Castro ticket
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Author Topic: Hillary Clinton-Julian Castro ticket  (Read 3346 times)
Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #50 on: May 21, 2014, 12:11:00 PM »

As I assume we all know, the odds of the Democrats winning 6 elections in a row is low but the odds of Democrats winning 4 elections in a row after having just won 2 are roughly 4 times better (and the odds of winning 2 elections in a row after having just won 4 in a row are much higher than winning 6 in a row, roughly 16 X as likely. That's imprecise because once you've won, you're incumbent and can get punished in bad times. But the point stands that we're not talking about the probability of Democrats winning 6 in a row but rather 4 in a row to total 6. The idea that scenario is 99% unlikely without VP Julian is hyperbole, nor do we even know how much more likely he makes it, if at all. More generally, picking a VP with an eye on an election 8 years forward is ridiculous which is why no one has ever done it. Assuming Hillary is the nominee, she's likely to follow the usual Do No Harm rule. Even in the event she's on course for an easy win and can be a little more adventurous, she'll make a January pick, not a November 2024 pick.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #51 on: May 21, 2014, 01:03:30 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2014, 01:58:17 PM by pbrower2a »

pbrower2a,

I think that Americans will vote for a candidate from any racial group, and rightfully so, but I doubt the majority of White voters will vote for a Hispanic candidate because of their background. Should he become the vice-presidential noninee, I suspect Castro could be attacked as a token if he doesn't immediately focus on the issues.

We don't know him that well, do we?

Choosing someone incompetent as a token would of course be a dreadful mistake. Tokens are mistakes as hires or nominations. They usually prove marginally competent at best.

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I have no idea how much involvement Julian Castro has had with the Armed Forces.  Nobody expects him to know about military policy. Election to the Senate, let alone the House, would have gotten him more access to military policy. Having had no experience in either House of Congress would be a detriment to him as VP.

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Should she be elected Governor of Virginia or a Senator from Virginia, then she goes to one of the three offices (State Governor, US Senator, Vice-President) that one usually needs before becoming President.  But Julian Castro is in Texas, and as a Democrat he has no reasonable chance of becoming a Governor or Senator.

Maybe he really is a quick-study, which solves many problems before they can happen. Sarah Palin was definitely not a quick-study.  
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Never
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« Reply #52 on: May 21, 2014, 01:43:41 PM »

^ Perhaps Julian Castro's main problem is that he would have trouble advancing in Texas, but he could get elected statewide in 2018 if Republicans win the presidency and have a bad midterm. Ted Cruz will be up for reelection that year, so that is something to consider. Nevertheless, if Castro wins a Senate seat, it would be under very unique circumstances.

You are right that we don't know so much about Castro, but for all we know, Hillary could be privately vetting running mates right now. The Clintons are a well-tuned machine, and I suspect she would only choose Castro if she thought he was fully qualified. She doesn't seem like she would let herself end up in a desperate place regarding vetting like McCain did.

I'm not sure if Hillary needs a game changer like Castro. She would probably be better served with an experienced senator or governor. It's not like she will have many problems with winning over Hispanic voters.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #53 on: May 21, 2014, 01:57:58 PM »

So...what do people here actually know about Castro's record as mayor of San Antonio?  Or about anything he's actually done that makes him a desirable person to be a heartbeat away from the presidency next to someone who will start her first term as a senior citizen right out of the gate?

I get the feeling that people like the idea of Julian Castro without knowing the first thing about him, and it really concerns me watching people get swept up into this hype train.
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
DarthNader
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« Reply #54 on: May 21, 2014, 07:25:57 PM »

More generally, picking a VP with an eye on an election 8 years forward is ridiculous which is why no one has ever done it.

Not the only reason he chose him but Clinton, in his biography, did say he chose Gore partly because he thought he'd be a good nominee down the road. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #55 on: May 24, 2014, 11:46:42 AM »

Washington Post has a 10 things you need to know article on Julian Castro today. Smiley

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/23/the-10-things-you-need-to-know-about-julian-castro/
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The Mikado
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« Reply #56 on: May 24, 2014, 03:31:15 PM »

There is absolutely nothing in that article about any accomplishments or noteworthy actions as mayor of San Antonio.
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