Who would be a smarter (electorally strategic) VP pick for Clinton?

[JRP1994]

What do you think?

[Del Tachi]

Beshear, but it has nothing to do with making a play for the Upper South.

Beshear's been a popular governor for eight years and that means he's more vetted than Castro. 

[BaconBacon96]

Both would be good picks, IMO.

[eric82oslo]

Julian Castro, especially as he's now the favourite to become Obama's new Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. However, I guess it's still not 100% sure if he will accept the offer, as he's turned down job offers from Obama in the past. He seems very much inclined to take the job however, according to local media at least.

Washington Post article ("Julian Castro to become HUD secretary"): http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/05/17/julian-castro-being-considered-for-hud-secretary/
San Antonio Express-News article ("Mayor Julián Castro likely heading to Washington"): http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/brian_chasnoff/article/Mayor-Juli-n-Castro-likely-heading-to-Washington-5485105.php

"In private conversations, though, he’s said an offer from the president to serve as education secretary would have proven tougher to turn down. Also tough to turn down is a chance to run as nominee for vice president alongside Hillary Clinton.

Naturally, speculation has only grown. Last week, ABC’s Robin Roberts asked Clinton whether she’d consider Castro or Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., as her running mate. “They’re both extraordinary leaders and great political advocates for a lot of what needs to be done in our country, and I admire both of them greatly,” she responded.

Former Mayor Henry Cisneros, a mentor to Castro who accepted an offer to join President Bill Clinton’s Cabinet after his own mayoral tenure: “I advised that he accept a position for President Obama,” Cisneros told the New York Times. “I thought that if he was going to be vice presidential material in 2016, then he needed to be more than mayor at that time.”

Where does this leave San Antonio? The City Charter has a preliminary answer. “In the event of a vacancy in the office of the mayor, the remaining council members shall elect from among themselves, by majority vote, a person to serve as mayor for the unexpired term,” it states."

[henster]

Neither would be a smart pick. Beshear will be in his 70s older than Clinton if he's picked and he's way too conservative to be picked on a national ticket he's pro coal, anti gay marriage, a creationist, anti abortion basically a typical socially conservative Dem. While Castro has little accomplishments as Mayor and HUD is a pretty low profile cabinet position I just don't think he would be qualified or ready as VP at all he has no experience with working with a legislative body either which a VP has to do sometimes.

[Beet]

Neither would be a smart pick. Beshear will be in his 70s older than Clinton if he's picked and he's way too conservative to be picked on a national ticket he's pro coal, anti gay marriage, a creationist, anti abortion basically a typical socially conservative Dem. While Castro has little accomplishments as Mayor and HUD is a pretty low profile cabinet position I just don't think he would be qualified or ready as VP at all he has no experience with working with a legislative body either which a VP has to do sometimes.

This.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Castro because Beshear would be a total FU to the base.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Castro because Beshear would be a total FU to the base.

So would her nomination

[IceSpear]

Castro because Beshear would be a total FU to the base.

So would her nomination

No, the base wants her to be the nominee. Where do you think her 60-70% support is coming from?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Castro because Beshear would be a total FU to the base.

So would her nomination

No, the base wants her to be the nominee. Where do you think her 60-70% support is coming from?

Let's wait until the primaries are actually underway.

[IceSpear]

Castro because Beshear would be a total FU to the base.

So would her nomination

No, the base wants her to be the nominee. Where do you think her 60-70% support is coming from?

Let's wait until the primaries are actually underway.

No need for that. Her and Obama nearly split the party 50/50 in 2008. Was the half of the party that preferred Hillary not the base?



Sure, you can make the argument that Hillary overwhelmingly won Conservadems in Appalachia. But I doubt the Democrats in Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, etc. that Obama won were exactly liberal champions.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Beshear would be a great pick in that it would help her expand the map.

Castro would be a terrible pick in that he would be considered way too inexperienced. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Only a True Leftists think Hillary Clinton needs a running mate to win the election   Her 535% approval rating means that even she were to die before the election, she'd still win with at least 100% of the vote.

#ReadyforHillary

[Bull Moose Base]

Only a True Leftists think Hillary Clinton needs a running mate to win the election   Her 535% approval rating means that even she were to die before the election, she'd still win with at least 100% of the vote.

#ReadyforHillary

Jokes aside, the specific choice of running mate helps the nominee win approximately 0% of the time. Several realistic running mates for Hillary are from battleground states- Warner, Kaine, Hickenlooper, Brown are debatably smart electoral picks. But much would the most popular of those, Warner, help in his home state? I'd argue very little if at all.

[Mister Mets]

Beshear's main problem is his age. That likely excludes him from consideration.

Castro's a solid pick. His combination of experience as a big city mayor and likely cabinet official helps him meet the qualifications threshold. He's young, has an appeal to Hispanic voters, and can be an effective surrogate in the west.

There are some drawbacks with Castro. It'll be a ticket with two members of Obama's cabinet, which results in less flexibility distancing the ticket from the President. And there's some material for Republicans to poke (Is the City Council manager the real power in San Antonio? Should voters opposed to affirmative action back this ticket? Why are Clinton and Castro so cozy with the previous San Antonio Mayor turned HUD Secretary, the one who was arrested?) although it'll largely come down to Castro's talents.

[Mister Mets]

Only a True Leftists think Hillary Clinton needs a running mate to win the election   Her 535% approval rating means that even she were to die before the election, she'd still win with at least 100% of the vote.

#ReadyforHillary

Jokes aside, the specific choice of running mate helps the nominee win approximately 0% of the time. Several realistic running mates for Hillary are from battleground states- Warner, Kaine, Hickenlooper, Brown are debatably smart electoral picks. But much would the most popular of those, Warner, help in his home state? I'd argue very little if at all.

It's complex.

Cheney obviously mattered as Veep, but he looked good on paper as much for a businessman turned Governor. If Gore's running mate was Jeanne Shaheen, he would likely have gotten two percent of the vote in New Hampshire, enough to swing the election his way.

LBJ may have been the most significant running mate, given all the states JFK won by less than two and a half points (including Texas.)

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky is easier to swing than is Texas. If Julian Castro can swing Texas, then Hillary Clinton gets well over 400 electoral votes, anyway.  Castro at most solidifies a Democratic hold on Colorado and (maybe) helps pick off Arizona. Beshear might aid in picking up Tennessee as well as Kentucky (about the same as CO+AZ) and maybe Georgia, which is even more.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Only a True Leftists think Hillary Clinton needs a running mate to win the election   Her 535% approval rating means that even she were to die before the election, she'd still win with at least 100% of the vote.

#ReadyforHillary

Why should they even have a primary?  Or a general election for that part?  It would just be a waste of money because we all know she'll win in every state.  But yeah, that is the attitude among Hillary supporters.  I'd be really annoyed if the establishment GOP pushed a Christie inevitability narrative to the same degree that the Hillary inevitability narrative seems to be pushed.

[IceSpear]

Only a True Leftists think Hillary Clinton needs a running mate to win the election   Her 535% approval rating means that even she were to die before the election, she'd still win with at least 100% of the vote.

#ReadyforHillary

Why should they even have a primary?  Or a general election for that part?  It would just be a waste of money because we all know she'll win in every state.  But yeah, that is the attitude among Hillary supporters.  I'd be really annoyed if the establishment GOP pushed a Christie inevitability narrative to the same degree that the Hillary inevitability narrative seems to be pushed.

I'm sure they would be if 60-70% of Republican voters supported Christie.

[eric82oslo]

The era of an all-white ticket is over I think, for the Democratic Party that is. Do people have any idea of how insulting that is in this era, when already 50% of Democratic voters are non-white? I think the Kerry/Edwards ticket was the last all-white Democratic ticket we'll see in a very long time, and with that I mean for decades probably. At least for a generation or so.

[Suburbia]

The era of an all-white ticket is over I think, for the Democratic Party that is. Do people have any idea of how insulting that is in this era, when already 50% of Democratic voters are non-white? I think the Kerry/Edwards ticket was the last all-white Democratic ticket we'll see in a very long time, and with that I mean for decades probably. At least for a generation or so.

Oh, no, no, no. We WILL see another all-white, male ticket for the Democratic Party. Mark my words. There will be a time in a future cycle, a white Democrat will have to pick a safe, bland white male to make no waves.

[Vosem]

Gonna go against the grain and say Castro, since Beshear's too old and Castro would probably help with Hispanic voters at the margins. He's not as well-vetted right now, but if her campaign team does a good job vetting him, there's no reason he can't be VP -- a big-city mayor and HUD Secy has executive experience and probably experience appealing to urban voters that Hillary needs to turn out in places like Denver and Las Vegas.

But Castro wouldn't be the best pick; that would be someone a bit older and safer, who's from a swing state and is young to provide a contrast to Hillary's own age -- Michael Bennet, Tim Kaine, or Bob Casey, Jr., come to mind. Sherrod Brown is frequently noticed; he might be a tad too old, but he comes off a good deal younger than his age (early-to-mid-60s) so perhaps he could still work.

The era of an all-white ticket is over I think, for the Democratic Party that is. Do people have any idea of how insulting that is in this era, when already 50% of Democratic voters are non-white? I think the Kerry/Edwards ticket was the last all-white Democratic ticket we'll see in a very long time, and with that I mean for decades probably. At least for a generation or so.

The problem for that, for 2016 at least, is that there's really a dearth of possible minority candidates for the Democrats (which is a big part of why Castro keeps being brought up so often). The only black Democratic Senator is Cory Booker, who will probably be too junior in 2014 (and ran kind of an amateurish campaign for his Senate seat, to be honest); there almost certainly won't be a black Democratic Governor in 2016, and if we're talking ex-Senators and ex-Governors the field basically ends at Deval Patrick. There's only one Democratic Hispanic Senator (Bob Menendez, who's too shady to be picked) and no Democratic Hispanic Governors (I suppose unless you count Alejandro Padilla); the only recent former Governor I can think of is Bill Richardson, who is older than Hillary, has been implicated in corrupt dealings, and is known for having illegally visited North Korea; not exactly VP material.

If you go down to the House there's more choices, but candidates usually try to avoid doing that. So if Hillary really wants to pick a minority, her options are very, very limited. I don't know if we'll see another all-white, all-male Democratic ticket (or even Republican), as women in politics become more and more common, but you'll almost certainly see more all-white Democratic tickets.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gonna go against the grain and say Castro, since Beshear's too old and Castro would probably help with Hispanic voters at the margins. He's not as well-vetted right now, but if her campaign team does a good job vetting him, there's no reason he can't be VP -- a big-city mayor and HUD Secy has executive experience and probably experience appealing to urban voters that Hillary needs to turn out in places like Denver and Las Vegas.

But Castro wouldn't be the best pick; that would be someone a bit older and safer, who's from a swing state and is young to provide a contrast to Hillary's own age -- Michael Bennet, Tim Kaine, or Bob Casey, Jr., come to mind. Sherrod Brown is frequently noticed; he might be a tad too old, but he comes off a good deal younger than his age (early-to-mid-60s) so perhaps he could still work.

The era of an all-white ticket is over I think, for the Democratic Party that is. Do people have any idea of how insulting that is in this era, when already 50% of Democratic voters are non-white? I think the Kerry/Edwards ticket was the last all-white Democratic ticket we'll see in a very long time, and with that I mean for decades probably. At least for a generation or so.

The problem for that, for 2016 at least, is that there's really a dearth of possible minority candidates for the Democrats (which is a big part of why Castro keeps being brought up so often). The only black Democratic Senator is Cory Booker, who will probably be too junior in 2014 (and ran kind of an amateurish campaign for his Senate seat, to be honest); there almost certainly won't be a black Democratic Governor in 2016, and if we're talking ex-Senators and ex-Governors the field basically ends at Deval Patrick. There's only one Democratic Hispanic Senator (Bob Menendez, who's too shady to be picked) and no Democratic Hispanic Governors (I suppose unless you count Alejandro Padilla); the only recent former Governor I can think of is Bill Richardson, who is older than Hillary, has been implicated in corrupt dealings, and is known for having illegally visited North Korea; not exactly VP material.

If you go down to the House there's more choices, but candidates usually try to avoid doing that. So if Hillary really wants to pick a minority, her options are very, very limited. I don't know if we'll see another all-white, all-male Democratic ticket (or even Republican), as women in politics become more and more common, but you'll almost certainly see more all-white Democratic tickets.

One can think of some other possible minorities.

Gary Locke
Deval Patrick
Hilda Solis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton/Castro or Clinton/Brown ticket.

[NHI]

Clinton/Brown
Clinton/Kaine
Clinton/Warner
Clinton/Hickenlooper
Clinton/Schweitzer