Belgian elections 25th May, 2014

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Haven't seen a thread but Belgium has a couple elections the same day as the EU elections. This will be the first election since a pack of constitutional reforms, including:

• the end of direct elections to the senate
• 5 year term limits
• the abolition of a very controversial district in Brussels and its surrounding area, which lumped the bilingual capital with its Dutch surroundings. Now Brussels will have its own constituency.
• devolution of power to the German-speaking community, to Brussels and to local and regional governments generally

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_federal_election,_2014


Elio Di Rupo is reasonably popular, but the main story of this election seems to be the continued rise of the Flemish seperatist party N-VA, at the expense of the hard-right Vlaams Belang mainly.

The states also have their own elections:

In Flanders, N-VA are expected to take the plurality with a meteoric rise from their 13% in 2009. This seems to be mainly at the expense of Vlaams and "Others". The mainstream three parties have small (but not catastrophic declines); while Workers and Greens are expected to rise.  I guess this will possibly end up as a N-VA/ CD coalition.

Waloonia -  All the current represented parties - including the traffic light governing coalition and the centre-right opposition seem to be suffering at the expense of new right-wing and left-wing (Workers and Peoples respectively) populist parties. The Socialsts continue to dominate, but its partner Ecolo has lost half its support since last election.

In the insane world of the Brussels government, similar declines are reported for the traffic light coalition (especially Ecolo) at the expense of newbies the Workers and the FDF. The FDF is a French regionalist split from the centre-right opposition.

The German-speaking community also have an election.

[politicus]

Its actually a bit surprising we missed this until now - especially since we got a couple of Belgian poster.

[Jens]

What has happened to Ecolo?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What has happened to Ecolo?

At an educated guess, they've lost their watermelon voters to the new Worker's Party.

That said I have no idea what sort of shenanigans Ecolo have been getting up to locally.

[Zanas]

What has happened to Ecolo?

At an educated guess, they've lost their watermelon voters to the new Worker's Party.

That said I have no idea what sort of shenanigans Ecolo have been getting up to locally.

PTB/PvdA is hardly new, if indeed new at this level of support.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What has happened to Ecolo?

At an educated guess, they've lost their watermelon voters to the new Worker's Party.

That said I have no idea what sort of shenanigans Ecolo have been getting up to locally.

PTB/PvdA is hardly new, if indeed new at this level of support.

Woops, I was mixing them up with the PP

[palandio]

Belgian elections are also interesting from the arithmetic view because of d'Hondt voting in districts. I will try to give my take on each race in the hope that people who know more than me will correct me:

Bruxelles/Brussel (15 seats):
Because of the large number of contending parties the effective quota will be at ca. 5%, far below the theoretical 6.25% (=1/(15+1)). That means for example that a party with between 5% and 10% will most likely get 1 seat.
In 2010 the major Dutch-speaking parties together got only 11%, the strongest being Open VLD at 2.3%. Because of this I think Groen did the only reasonable thing when allying with Ecolo in exchange for the third seat on the Ecolo list. The other Dutch-speaking parties should really think about electoral cartels, too.
If they were able to hold onto their 2010 results, MR and PS would have 4 seats each safe, with a 5th seat very likely, CDH and Ecolo 2 seats each. The rest would go to PVDA-PTB, FDF and Parti Populaire. Because of negative trends I wouldn't consider the 5th PS and MR and the 2nd CDH seat safe, though. (The 2nd Ecolo seat should be safe because of the cartel with Groen.) Other Dutch-speaking parties being involved in cartels would change the arithmetics.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Good God, not again!

How long will it take them to form a government this time? 

[MaxQue]

Good God, not again!

How long will it take them to form a government this time? 

None, it's regional elections.

[Famous Mortimer]

No, it's national and regional.

[palandio]

Flemish voting districts

Antwerpen (24 seats):
The theoretical quota is 4.0%, more likely is something in the range of 3.6-3.8%.
Under this assumption the 4th CD&V seat, the 3th Open VLD seat and the 2nd Groen seat are very unsafe in the case of even slight declines. (Groen will likely grow slightly, though.) The 3rd sp.a seat is safe even against a loss of 3 percentage points. If VB loses a considerable share, as expected, they will lose their 4th seat. Antwerpen is also one of the best pick-up opportunities for the PVDA. The N-VA seat share is the most luck-dependent under the d'Hondt system.

Limburg (12 seats):
The theoretical quota is 7.7%, the effective quota will probably be in the 6-7% range.
The 3rd CD&V seat is very unsafe, as is the 2nd VB seat. On the other hand the 2nd sp.a seat and the one Open VLD seat are ultra-safe. Being there only 12 seats, PVDA and Groen will get at most one seat each.

Eastern Flanders (20 seats):
The theoretical quota is 4.76%, the effective quota will probably be something like 4.1-4.5%.
Under this assumption the 4th Open VLD seat is very unsafe, as is the 3rd VB seat. The 3rd CD&V seat is safe. The 3rd sp.a seat is relatively safe against minor percentage losses, but something like -1.5% could become dangerous. The Groen seat is very safe, with chances for a 2nd seat in the case of gains.

Flemish Brabant (15 seats):
The theoretical quota is 6.25%, the effective quota we be around 5.5%. What makes predictions difficult is the dissolution of the B.H.V district. The most likely effect is that French-speaking voters of MR, PS, CDH and Ecolo will switch to Open VLD, sp.a, CD&V and Groen respectively. Under this assumption the 3rd CD&V and particularly the 3rd Open VLD seat become much safer than before, though still at risk. The 2nd sp.a. seat is ultra-safe and ex-PS voters even provide a small pick-up chance for a 3rd seat. The single Groen seat is ultra-safe as well and with ex-Ecolo voters there is even a small chance for a 2nd seat. The 2nd VB seat is almost surely gone.

Western Flanders (16 seats):
The theoretical quota is 5,9%, the effective quota probably something in the 4.7-5.5% range. Under this assumption the N-VA has good chances to gain a 4th seat even with minor percentage gains. The 4th CD&V seat is relatively safe. The 2nd Open VLD seat and the single VB seat are very safe. The 3rd sp.a. seat is strongly at risk. The Groen has almost no chance to gain a 2nd seat. Then there's LDD, not heared much about them lately, might lose their seat, probably to the N-VA.

Altogether:
The arithmetic effect on the N-VA is the most difficult to predict.
The CD&V is at risk in Antwerpen and Limburg and needs a bit of luck and ex-CDH votes in Flemish Brabant.
The sp.a is at risk in Western Flanders.
Open VLD is at risk in Antwerpen and Eastern Flanders and needs a bit of luck and ex-MR votes in Flemish Brabant.
VB is at risk in Antwerpen, Limburg, Eastern Flanders and Flemish Brabant.
Groen has pick-up opportunities in Limburg, Eastern Flanders and Flemish Brabant, of course only if they increase their vote share.
PVDA chances depend on the effective quota which depends mainly on the number of seats. Antwerpen is of course the easiest gain, Limburg the most difficult.

[Zinneke]

Actually PVDA should get a lot of votes in Hasselt and Genk (where they got 11% in communal elections last time we went to the polls) so Limburg could be a starting point.

Ecolo have imploded because before the 2009 elections they told their electorate they would focus on providing an alternative to PS and instead jumped into the Olivier government in Wallonia with the (losing) PS and Cdh. MR actually won the last regional elections in Wallonia. In Bruxelles they are in government too and its hardly been a massif success. Public transport is still a joke and they want to introduce a congestion charge.

I'm voting FDF myself. Not because of their institutional ideas but because Maingain needs to remain in the political scene in order for there to be any credible opposition to Flemish nationalism in Brussels. The partition of Brabant makes the Dayton plan look like a sustainable peace. Also their education reforms for francophonia are needed.


I predict the Olivier to be renewed in Wallonia perhaps with the inclusion of the communists which could be interesting. PP will get a good 7-10% which is dick. MR will stay in opposition because they are incapable of negotiating with anybody.

In Flanders, SP.a will be kicked out and Vld will come into government, so you'll have a centre-right NVA-CD&V-openVLd coalition. These parties will want to form the same system on the federal level (we'll come back to this later).

In Brussels, it all depends on who comes third. If its FDF and MR consolidate their lead in the polls then you might see a renewal of that alliance with Maingain(!) as Minister-president. If CDH or Ecolo get third expect PS to be renewed as leading party.


As for the federal level, expect deadlock as usual. If the Flemish parties follow De Wever's advice, form the centre-right coalition then go to Wallonia saying that this is their hand, then we'll have the same situation as 2006-2008. CDH will be the problem, FDF will no longer be a problem. So N-VA, MR, CDV, Cdh, Vld + maybe PP(!). The fireworks will come between federal and regional walloons in this case.

[Zinneke]

Early projections show Vlaams Belang at just 6% in Antwerp, where they once came 1rst in locals.
They are struggling to make the threshold altogether in Flanders.
N-VA are 30% in Flemish regional parliament but are struggling on the federal level (neck and neck with Open Vld on 20-25%).
Wallonia is same old, with ecolo looking like the big losers and PTB-Go! the big winners.


This might just be a good day.

Any idea which groups PP and FDF would sit in on European level? And whether they'll get an elected MEP or not...FDF is touch and go but PP looks likely.

[Zinneke]

Flemish Regional prediction.


N-VA: 33,35%

CD&V: 20,15%
(likely government with purple in opposition)
SP.A: 13,5%

Open VLD: 12,08%

Groen: 9,36%

Vlaams Belang: 6,15% (Celebration time!!!)

PVDA+: 3,18%


Wallonia results (according to LaLibre - results from Hainaut are just coming in so expect PS to strengthen and PTB - who are Liege-based - to weaken.



Bruxsel results - MR expected to strengthen.



Big result if FDF could hang on to third place.

[homelycooking]

Homely strikes again!

[GAworth]

It is impressive to me that the FDF got 13% in Brussels, I lived there for a short time back in 2012 and they were becoming a force, but I still can't believe they have become that strong, said to see the polarization continue.
Also, anyone know the results by region in Brussels, particularly Uccle or Ixelles?

[freek]

It is impressive to me that the FDF got 13% in Brussels, I lived there for a short time back in 2012 and they were becoming a force, but I still can't believe they have become that strong, said to see the polarization continue.
Also, anyone know the results by region in Brussels, particularly Uccle or Ixelles?

The election results website of the Belgian government has all the results:

http://polling2014.belgium.be/en/cha/results/results_start.html

[GAworth]

It is impressive to me that the FDF got 13% in Brussels, I lived there for a short time back in 2012 and they were becoming a force, but I still can't believe they have become that strong, said to see the polarization continue.
Also, anyone know the results by region in Brussels, particularly Uccle or Ixelles?

The election results website of the Belgian government has all the results:

http://polling2014.belgium.be/en/cha/results/results_start.html

Thanks. I am stunned that the FDF got 17% in Ixelles, that is quite impressive.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How's the government formation coming along. The current government has a renewed majority, has it not? So I'm guessing the likliest result is that they will continue?

[Diouf]

How's the government formation coming along. The current government has a renewed majority, has it not? So I'm guessing the likliest result is that they will continue?

Nope, it looks like it will be a so-called Swedish Coalition with N-VA + CD&V + Open Vld + MR with Kris Peeters from CD&V as PM. The outcome is quite closely intertwined with the government formation in Vlaanderen where N-VA + CD&V + Open Vld will form the new government with Geert Bourgeois from N-VA as Minister-President.

Both the social democrat parties lost votes at the election, so they might not be completely dissatisfied with relinquishing some of the responsibility. Furthermore, MR demanded joining the Wallonie government if they were to continue in federal government with the two other Wallonian parties PS and cdH. PS rejected this and the new Wallonie, and Communauté Française government is therefore only made up of PS and cdH with Paul Magnette and Rudy Demotte from PS as Minister-Presidents.
cdH refused to participate in the centre-right government, probably mainly due to the presence of the Flemish nationalists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Belgian_government_formation

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How's the government formation coming along. The current government has a renewed majority, has it not? So I'm guessing the likliest result is that they will continue?

Nope, it looks like it will be a so-called Swedish Coalition with N-VA + CD&V + Open Vld + MR with Kris Peeters from CD&V as PM. The outcome is quite closely intertwined with the government formation in Vlaanderen where N-VA + CD&V + Open Vld will form the new government with Geert Bourgeois from N-VA as Minister-President.

Both the social democrat parties lost votes at the election, so they might not be completely dissatisfied with relinquishing some of the responsibility. Furthermore, MR demanded joining the Wallonie government if they were to continue in federal government with the two other Wallonian parties PS and cdH. PS rejected this and the new Wallonie, and Communauté Française government is therefore only made up of PS and cdH with Paul Magnette and Rudy Demotte from PS as Minister-Presidents.
cdH refused to participate in the centre-right government, probably mainly due to the presence of the Flemish nationalists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Belgian_government_formation

Facinating! Good thing it didn't take them as long time as four years ago. 

[Diouf]

It still seems very likely that Belgium will get a so-called Swedish Coalition as mentioned above. However, it seems like Kris Peeters (CD&V) is no longer the expected PM as the four parties negotiating the new coalition decided to appoint MEP Marianne Thyssen (CD&V) as Belgium's new EU Commissioner. Therefore CD&V will not get the PM post, which will then go to one of the two liberal parties. A MR PM could perhaps slightly soothe some in Wallonie where there have been some protests that the new government does not have a majority in the French-speaking areas. Plus the fact that the new EU Commissioner is Flemish. However, perhaps the N-VA will protest that or demand bigger concessions.

Belgian papers like De Tijd report that CD&V decided to take the slighly lesser post of EU Commissioner instead of PM in an attempt to trade its way to more policy concessions, especially a more leftwing economic policy. One of the things they would like the new government programme to include is a so-called meerwaardebelasting (a kind of capital gains tax)

http://m.tijd.be/9541128.art[Paywall. In Flemish about the supposed CD&V trade of the PM post]

http://trends.knack.be/economie/beleid/meerwaardebelasting-belgische-vermogenstaksen-al-stuk-hoger-dan-eu-gemiddelde/article-opinion-274893.html [in Flemish about the CD&V's wish for a meerwaardebelasting, and how the current tax situation in Belgium is compared with its neighbours]

http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.english/Politics/140904_Thyssen [English profile of the new EU Commissioner]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What I want to know is how long are Belgium going to keep up this charade of being a country? Are N-VA going to push for secession?

[Zanas]

What I want to know is how long are Belgium going to keep up this charade of being a country? Are N-VA going to push for succession?

You mean secession, and Belgium functions as a country better and for longer than quite a number of other countries in the world. Of course they happen to have power crises, but nothing they can't manage really. Their "impossibility to keep living together as a country" is hugely overplayed by the media to sell paper, IMO.

[Famous Mortimer]

It isn't impossible for them to live together in the sense that there's no chance of open warfare.

It's definitely impossible for them to have a functional government based on policies other than language.