What is the most Democratic county with a significant GOP area?
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  What is the most Democratic county with a significant GOP area?
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Author Topic: What is the most Democratic county with a significant GOP area?  (Read 4072 times)
Sol
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« on: May 20, 2014, 01:22:09 PM »

And vice-versa?

I suppose it depends on how you define significant, but the Bronx is probably a good candidate. On the other hand, Denton County or whatever county Norman, OK is in are probably near that as well.
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CountyTy90
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2014, 02:01:36 PM »

I think Travis County, Texas probably takes the cake.

But then you have Marion, Indiana, Silver Bow and Deer Lodge in Montana for strong Dems in strong Repub areas.

As for strong Repub in Dem areas... maybe Orange, California, McMullen and Live Oak in Texas, definitely Lee County in Georgia.

And then you could list countless minority-majority counties in red states... anything south of San Antonio in Texas, Sioux and Rollette in North Dakota, Shannon in South Dakota, any Black Belt counties of the South.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2014, 02:05:58 PM »

What part of the Bronx is a GOP area?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2014, 02:25:00 PM »

Any large, urban county could fit under this criteria.

Cook, Los Angeles, and Dade Counties all have strong Republican areas despite being in very Democratic-voting counties.

The inverse is somewhat more difficult to find, but I'm guessing the resort areas of the Mountain West and the Appalachians would be good candidates.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2014, 02:26:39 PM »

What part of the Bronx is a GOP area?

Some non-Hispanic white areas like Morris Park and Country Club are marginally Republican, at least in the recent mayoral race.  But it's not like the orthodox Jewish Republican areas of Brooklyn, which sometimes are heavily Republican despite the borough's heavy Democratic tilt.  Kings County (Brooklyn) is probably a better fit in this category than the Bronx.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2014, 02:28:45 PM »

The inverse is somewhat more difficult to find, but I'm guessing the resort areas of the Mountain West and the Appalachians would be good candidates.

Maricopa probably wins that one.
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2014, 03:49:16 PM »

What part of the Bronx is a GOP area?

These parts are:



And with regards to the OP, "significant GOP" means modestly large areas that vote Republican. They can be marginal, as is the case in the Bronx.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2014, 04:02:14 PM »

I don't think that there's one GOP "area" of the Bronx.  There are swing areas that will vote for a Bloomberg or a moderate GOP type.  There are no neighborhoods, CB districts, police precincts, etc that vote GOP. 
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2014, 05:04:38 PM »

I realize this is mostly just semantics... but I don't think that small, isolated neighborhood-sized patches of 55% McCain voters count as a "significant GOP area" in the same way that the Hasidic parts of Brooklyn or Cuban parts of Miami-Dade do- or even in the way that Breezy Point/Rockaway Park/Howard Beach does in Queens.  Those pink dots in the Bronx, I think, would be better described as "insignificant GOP areas".  Tongue

So, yeah, Brooklyn is my vote.
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2014, 07:51:12 PM »

The fact those areas even exist though is kind of noteworthy. For contrast there are no GOP or even swing areas of Minneapolis*, no matter how small. And also true for a ton of other cities.

*Obviously not true of Hennepin county though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2014, 07:52:58 PM »

Shelby County, TN could certainly be a candidate. Memphis itself is like 85% D, the rest is 65% R.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2014, 09:57:00 PM »

Oklahoma City's Oklahoma County, whatever county Tulsa is in, same for Ft. Worth/Phoenix/Jacksonville/Virginia Beach/Colorado Springs

In general, counties with large cities that tilt GOP due to the county's suburbs still have Democrat urban cores.  The exception is Mormon enclaves like Provo and very rich areas like Anaheim and Huntington Beach.

EDIT:  This is for GOP area with Democratic enclave

The enclave is the URBAN CORE of the city as the cities themselves are often still technically GOP(not Phoenix/Fort Worth, but the others are).
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CountyTy90
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2014, 10:44:33 PM »

The fact those areas even exist though is kind of noteworthy. For contrast there are no GOP or even swing areas of Minneapolis*, no matter how small. And also true for a ton of other cities.

*Obviously not true of Hennepin county though.

I just mapped Hennepin County's voting patterns in Presidential elections from 2000 to 2012. Interesting to see just how Republican some of the far western small towns and townships are. Even in 2008.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2014, 11:00:42 PM »

Cook County for sure if you count Barrington Township as a significant area.

Since I know Illinois politics better than any other state, I am tempted to say that McLean County, IL is my best thought for a Republican county with a significant Democratic area. It includes Bloomington-Normal, which is a very conservative town full of mostly people in the insurance industry (State Farm is headquartered there). It is also home to Illinois State University, which is an obviously very liberal section of the towns.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2014, 06:31:09 PM »

Fulton County, GA is up there.

The city of Atlanta and the majority black suburbs in South Fulton County are very strong for Democrats, but the northern third of the county is known for being very conservative. There has been a long running secession movement in North Fulton County since that area used to be its own county before merging with Fulton during the great Depression. Now that the area is wealthy they've decided they don't need Fulton anymore...
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BRTD
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2014, 05:01:30 PM »

The fact those areas even exist though is kind of noteworthy. For contrast there are no GOP or even swing areas of Minneapolis*, no matter how small. And also true for a ton of other cities.

*Obviously not true of Hennepin county though.

I just mapped Hennepin County's voting patterns in Presidential elections from 2000 to 2012. Interesting to see just how Republican some of the far western small towns and townships are. Even in 2008.

Have you ever been to those places? It's really not surprising.
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2014, 12:41:47 AM »

for GOP counties with Dem area: Maybe McKenzie ND, or another one of the rural Republican counties that intersect with Indian Reservations. 
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Flake
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2014, 01:15:11 AM »

That really conservative area in Ros-Lehtinen's district followed by huge swaths of Democrats.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2014, 03:08:10 AM »

The High Desert area of Los Angeles County (Santa Clarita, Lancaster etc.)

The Russian Jewish neighbourhoods of Brooklyn
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2014, 03:09:05 AM »

Oklahoma City's Oklahoma County, whatever county Tulsa is in, same for Ft. Worth/Phoenix/Jacksonville/Virginia Beach/Colorado Springs

In general, counties with large cities that tilt GOP due to the county's suburbs still have Democrat urban cores.  The exception is Mormon enclaves like Provo and very rich areas like Anaheim and Huntington Beach.


Anaheim isn't that rich unless you only count Anaheim Hills
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mianfei
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2017, 08:09:22 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2017, 09:56:33 AM by mianfei »

And vice-versa?

I suppose it depends on how you define significant, but the Bronx is probably a good candidate. On the other hand, Denton County or whatever county Norman, OK is in are probably near that as well.
Owyhee County and Custer County in Idaho are about the most Republican counties to have Democratic precincts. Since 1968 they have been regulars in Republican “Top 100”s, but in ski resorts and Owyhee’s Native American areas there are some notably Democratic precincts. The Democratic areas of Custer County are in the west bordering Blaine County; those of Owyhee are in the far southwest. Bingham County – in the heart of archconservative southeastern Idaho – also has some Democratic areas in its south-central area on the Fort Hall Reservation.

A few counties in northwestern Arkansas, notably Newton (a historically GOP unionist county that even voted for Alf Landon) have Democratic enclaves (Murray) that must be alternative lifestyle or resort towns. Union County, Pennsylvania – which has not voted Democratic in 180 years – has areas in its east near Milton that have voted Democratic consistently in recent times – what the explanation is I am not sure since Lebanon County, almost as staunchly Republican, lacks them despite being much larger by population.

Über-Republican Washington, Kane and Garfield Counties in southern Utah have precincts won by Obama and Hilary Clinton in their highland areas (Springfield in Washington, Boulder and Ticaboo in Garfield; the east of Kane County) but these are “swing” precincts which have alternated between parties.

Apache County, Arizona – which last voted Republican in 1980 – has white Mormon precincts that are as Republican as most of Utah or Wyoming. Imperial County, California, where Hilary Clinton gained 67 percent of the total vote, has major areas in irrigation districts that are 80 percent Republican, and Monterey County has similar areas in the Salinas Valley.

Orange County, North Carolina – 77 percent for Clinton with an 88-year unbroken Democratic sequence as of 2020 – has significant Republican or swing areas in its north – as does even more Democratic Durham County.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2017, 01:53:47 PM »

Any large, urban county could fit under this criteria.

Cook, Los Angeles, and Dade Counties all have strong Republican areas despite being in very Democratic-voting counties.

The inverse is somewhat more difficult to find, but I'm guessing the resort areas of the Mountain West and the Appalachians would be good candidates.

The inverse is all over the place, there's a small urban core area in a lot of counties that has a few precincts that vote Dem while the rest of the county votes GOP.   If not an urban core then there might be a small minority heavy area of the county that votes Dem too. 

I know Grand Traverse County MI is a good example of this.  Traverse City votes Dem which includes I think 3 precincts, but the remainder of the county votes GOP.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2017, 02:00:09 PM »

Does Orthodox Jewish Brooklyn qualify?
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VPH
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« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2017, 03:37:02 PM »

Any large, urban county could fit under this criteria.

Cook, Los Angeles, and Dade Counties all have strong Republican areas despite being in very Democratic-voting counties.

The inverse is somewhat more difficult to find, but I'm guessing the resort areas of the Mountain West and the Appalachians would be good candidates.

The inverse is all over the place, there's a small urban core area in a lot of counties that has a few precincts that vote Dem while the rest of the county votes GOP.   If not an urban core then there might be a small minority heavy area of the county that votes Dem too. 

I know Grand Traverse County MI is a good example of this.  Traverse City votes Dem which includes I think 3 precincts, but the remainder of the county votes GOP.
Hillary dropped off big in a lot of small towns, but Obama used to do well in them despite losing by decent margins in fully rural areas. In Kansas, for example, he won parts of Salina and Hutchinson (Hillary still won a few precincts) despite those cities being in heavily GOP counties. Often where there's a college this effect exists. Take Hays in Ellis County Kansas. The precinct that contains Fort Hays State is Democratic despite Ellis County being heavily Republican.
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