What are the most left- and right-wing ridings in Canada?
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  What are the most left- and right-wing ridings in Canada?
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Author Topic: What are the most left- and right-wing ridings in Canada?  (Read 3844 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 20, 2014, 03:03:46 PM »

Maybe by province/region, and look at social liberalism and conservative as well as left/right on economics...

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2014, 03:16:42 PM »

Here's my guess

Fed
Economically left: Vancouver East
Economically right: Calgary Southeast
Socially liberal: Laurier-Saint Marie
Socially conservative: Lethbridge

NS
Economically left: Sydney-Victoria
Economically right: Cumberland-Colchester
Socially liberal: Halifax (easily)
Socially conservative: West Nova
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2014, 03:48:39 PM »

Ontario:

Economic:  Hamilton Centre is the most left-wing.  Most economically conservative?  Either something in 905 like Newmarket-Aurora Oak Ridges or Oakville, or Don Valley West.

Social:  Trinity-Spadina I would say is the most socially liberal, runners up would be Toronto Centre, Danforth, maybe St. Paul's, along with Ottawa Centre.  Socially conservative Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke seems the most obvious (the Pennsylvania of Ontario?).  Runners-up could include Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, Haldimand-Norfolk.

In Toronto itself, Danforth, Davenport, York South-Weston, York West could all be contenders for economically left.  Economically right DVW then Etobicoke Centre.  Socially conservative: probably somewhere in Scarborough.  Most split: Eglinton-Lawrence.  Economically conservative/socially liberal professional in the east, but also lots of socially conservative Orthodox Jews and Filipinos in the middle and west and Davenport, socially conservative Portuguese in the north, creative class leftists in the south. 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2014, 04:00:57 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2014, 04:15:28 PM by King of Kensington »

Manitoba:

Economically left:  Winnipeg Centre
Economically right:  Winnipeg South

Socially liberal:  Winnipeg South Centre
Socially conservative:  Provencher
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2014, 04:08:19 PM »

Ontario..

Most economically left wing: I agree with Hamilton Centre
Most socially left wing: Probably Toronto-Danforth

Most economically right wing: it's going to be a PC riding, maybe Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington or Nepean-Carleton. Could be something in the 905, or perhaps one of the Simcoe ridings.
Most socially right wing: Probably Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2014, 04:09:04 PM »

B.C.:

Economically left:  Vancouver East
Economically right: West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast (?)

Socially liberal:  Vancouver Centre
Socially conservative:  Abbotsford
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2014, 06:07:21 PM »

Why don't we ask the Vote Compass 2011?

If we take Corporate tax favorability as an indication of economic conservatism (or at least neoliberal views) than McLeod (C) in Alberta appears to be the most economically right wing, with Don Valley West (C) coming in for second.  The most in BC appears to be Langley (C)or Delta-Richmond East (C). In Sask, it appears to be Souris-Moose Mountain (C). MB: Provencher (C) In Quebec it appears to be Lac-Saint-Louis (L). MB: Tobique-Mactaquac (C), NS: Halifax West (L), NL - St. John's East (NDP, wut?)

Going the opposite, the ridings that demand corporations pay higher tax rates appears to be somewhere in Quebec, I can't tell. It might be Papineau (L) or Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie (NDP). 

Outside Quebec, it's definitely Vancouver East (NDP) or Davenport (NDP). 

By Province:
Alberta- Edmonton Strathcona (NDP)
Sask. - Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River (C)
MB -Winnipeg Centre (NDP)
NB - Beausejour (L), Moncton (C), or Acadie Bathurst (NDP)
NS - Sidney-Victoria (L)
NL - Avalon (L), Random--Burin--St. George's(L), or St. John's South-Mt. Perl (NDP)

SOCIAL Liberalism

Using abortion as our proxy, the most abortionest riding appears to be Laurier--Sainte-Marie (NDP), closely followed by a host of urban ridings around the country. 

by Province

BC: Vancouver East (NDP)
AB: Calgary Centre (C)
SK: Wascana (L)
MB: Winnipeg Centre (NDP)
ON: Davenport (?, NDP)
NB: Fredericton (C)
NS: Halifax (NDP)
NL: St. John's East (NDP)

The most anti-abortion riding is obviously Provencher (C)

BC: Abbotsford (C)
AB: Vegreville--Wainwright (C)
SK: Cypress Hills--Grasslands (C)
ON: somewhere in SW ONtario, it might even be a Windsor riding or Essex
QC: Beauce (C) no competition
NB: Miramichi (C), but might just be St John (C) (can't quite see)
NS: Cape Breton-Canso (L)
NL Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor (L)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2014, 07:49:19 PM »

Essex the most socially conservative riding in Ontario. You mean a riding the NDP holds provincially? OK
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MaxQue
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2014, 09:16:53 PM »

Quebec:

Socially conservative: Beauce
Economically conservative: Beauce, by far.
Socially liberal: Laurier--Sainte-Marie, clearly.
Economically liberal: Complicated, but I would a working-class and French Montreal riding. Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie would be the favorite.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2014, 10:01:22 PM »

Davenport is more socially liberal than its neighbors Trinity-Spadina or St. Paul's?  Find that hard to believe...
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2014, 10:11:26 PM »

Quebec:

Socially conservative: Beauce
Economically conservative: Beauce, by far.
Socially liberal: Laurier--Sainte-Marie, clearly.
Economically liberal: Complicated, but I would a working-class and French Montreal riding. Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie would be the favorite.

Hochelaga?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2014, 10:37:51 PM »

Quebec:

Socially conservative: Beauce
Economically conservative: Beauce, by far.
Socially liberal: Laurier--Sainte-Marie, clearly.
Economically liberal: Complicated, but I would a working-class and French Montreal riding. Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie would be the favorite.

Hochelaga?

Perhaps, but, it's strechting north to include areas like Louis-Riel district, which is middle or upper middle class.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2014, 12:02:53 AM »

I'm just trying to read the map. Vote compass is annoyingly non-transparent
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2014, 12:51:54 AM »

Ontario..

Most economically left wing: I agree with Hamilton Centre
Most socially left wing: Probably Toronto-Danforth

Most economically right wing: it's going to be a PC riding, maybe Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington or Nepean-Carleton. Could be something in the 905, or perhaps one of the Simcoe ridings.
Most socially right wing: Probably Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke.

Nepean-Carleton or Carleton-Mississippi Mills may be it, with the high income libertarian exurban, Conservative-voting demographic.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2014, 05:55:43 AM »

Essex the most socially conservative riding in Ontario. You mean a riding the NDP holds provincially? OK

If you look at Vote Compass' abortion map, rural SW Ontario is more anti-abortion than rural eastern Ontario. Unfortunately they don't give specific data points, only a shaded map and most of SW Ontario is the same shade including Essex.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2014, 07:04:24 AM »

This question shows the absurdity of quantifying leftism and conservatism. Are bobos in Toronto more economically leftist than lower income, visible minorities who voted for Rob Ford?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2014, 07:07:25 AM »

Ontario..

Most economically left wing: I agree with Hamilton Centre
Most socially left wing: Probably Toronto-Danforth

Most economically right wing: it's going to be a PC riding, maybe Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington or Nepean-Carleton. Could be something in the 905, or perhaps one of the Simcoe ridings.
Most socially right wing: Probably Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke.

Nepean-Carleton or Carleton-Mississippi Mills may be it, with the high income libertarian exurban, Conservative-voting demographic.



Provincially, both Carleton-Mississippi Mills and Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington have libertarian "tea party" type MPPs.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2014, 04:22:18 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2014, 05:14:39 PM by King of Kensington »

If you look at Vote Compass' abortion map, rural SW Ontario is more anti-abortion than rural eastern Ontario. Unfortunately they don't give specific data points, only a shaded map and most of SW Ontario is the same shade including Essex.

Do you have a link?

It's interesting that SW Ontario is more socially conservative than Eastern Ontario, but I guess there are some "Bible belts" that way - yet Eastern Ontario is more politically conservative but perhaps it's akin to Upstate New York or New Hampshire type conservatism rather than rural Michigan type conservatism?  Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke is hard to isolate though, and it's hard to believe they shifted so rightward over the last decade because of economic issues.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2014, 04:30:44 PM »

Most socially left wing: Probably Toronto-Danforth

Why do you say Danforth?  NDP vote?  It's certainly very socially liberal, but it does include some semisuburban working class-y sections.  I would think it's Trinity-Spadina given that it includes much of downtown and is also the epicenter for the intelligentsia.

I do have access to the Ipsos raw data which I think has some questions about abortion, taxing the rich etc. but it's a huge undertaking!
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Njall
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2014, 06:15:58 PM »

Alberta Provincial:

Economic Left: Edmonton-Strathcona
Economic Right: Chestermere-Rocky View, closely followed by a few suburban Calgary ridings
Social Liberal: Probably Edmonton-Centre or Calgary-Buffalo, with Calgary-Mountain View close behind
Social Conservative: Cardston-Taber-Warner or Little Bow
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EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2014, 07:14:04 PM »

Cardston-Taber-Warner is basically Canada's version of Utah.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2014, 07:15:17 PM »

I think it's Chatham-Kent-Essex that comes in as the most anti-abortion.

Just looked at NHS figures for Ontario and tried to come up with evangelical population estimates.  I use the evangelicals own definition:

http://files.efc-canada.net/min/rc/cft/V01I02/Evangelicals_Canadian_Census.pdf

Such detailed information isn't available at the riding level but it is at the census agglomeration level.  Leamington is 31.7% evangelical, the highest of all Ontario CAs.  Chatham-Kent at 20.2% is in third place, behind Norfolk (21.6%).

Canadian evangelicals are more (proportionately) Mennonite and Dutch Reformed* than in the States, as we have a lot fewer Baptists, especially outside the Maritimes.  

* Though heavily Dutch ancestry areas of the US like western Michigan are very socially conservative and Republican, though a smaller % of the much larger evangelical population.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2014, 11:22:43 PM »

Here are all the CAs where at least 20% are evangelical (riding in brackets):

Steinbach MB  63.5% (Provencher)
Leamington ON  31.7% (Chatham-Kent-Essex)
Lacombe AB  31.7% (Wetaskiwin)
Kentville NS  31.3% (Kings-Hants)
Abbotsford BC  28.3% (Abbotsford)
Chilliwack BC  28.3% (Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon)
Swift Current SK  26.3% (Cypress Hill-Grasslands)
Fredericton NB 24.4% (Fredericton)
Norfolk ON  21.6% (Haldimand-Norfolk)
High River AB  21.6% (Macleod)
Sylvan Lake AB  20.9% (Red Deer)
Brooks AB  20.8% (Medicine Hat)
Lethbridge AB  20.8% (Lethbridge)
Truro NS  20.6% (Cumberland-Colchester-Musqudoboit Valley)
Chatham-Kent ON  20.2% (Chatham-Kent-Essex)
Wetaskiwin AB  20.2% (Wetaskiwin)
Red Deer AB  20.1% (Red Deer)
Salmon Arm BC  20.0% (Okanagan-Shuswap)

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2014, 11:28:49 PM »

Can you count Mennonites as Evangelicals?
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2014, 11:54:33 PM »

Here are all the CAs where at least 20% are evangelical (riding in brackets):

Steinbach MB  63.5% (Provencher)
Leamington ON  31.7% (Chatham-Kent-Essex)
Lacombe AB  31.7% (Wetaskiwin)
Kentville NS  31.3% (Kings-Hants)
Abbotsford BC  28.3% (Abbotsford)
Chilliwack BC  28.3% (Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon)
Swift Current SK  26.3% (Cypress Hill-Grasslands)
Fredericton NB 24.4% (Fredericton)
Norfolk ON  21.6% (Haldimand-Norfolk)
High River AB  21.6% (Macleod)
Sylvan Lake AB  20.9% (Red Deer)
Brooks AB  20.8% (Medicine Hat)
Lethbridge AB  20.8% (Lethbridge)
Truro NS  20.6% (Cumberland-Colchester-Musqudoboit Valley)
Chatham-Kent ON  20.2% (Chatham-Kent-Essex)
Wetaskiwin AB  20.2% (Wetaskiwin)
Red Deer AB  20.1% (Red Deer)
Salmon Arm BC  20.0% (Okanagan-Shuswap)



I wouldn't have guessed that Salmon Arm was so evangelical
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