In a Clinton vs. Sanders scenario…...

[Mr. Morden]

Suppose Bernie Sanders ends up as Clinton's lone challenger in the Democratic primary.  What is a realistic range of numbers for what the national primary polls will look like on the eve of the Iowa caucuses?  What's a realistic # for him in terms of eventual Iowa support and eventual New Hampshire support?

[Fuzzy Bear]

It is hard to say, but Hillary looks like Ed Muskie in 1972 compared to Sanders.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

National # - Clinton 60%
                   Sanders 15 - 20%

Iowa # Clinton 70%
            Sanders 30%

NH #    Clinton 68%
            Sanders 32%

[NewYorkExpress]

Sanders wins Iowa, loses everywhere else... for some reason Iowa voters really don't like Hillary.

[IceSpear]

Sanders wins Iowa, loses everywhere else... for some reason Iowa voters really don't like Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

Clearly.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sanders wins Iowa, loses everywhere else... for some reason Iowa voters really don't like Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

Clearly.

They aren't including Sanders in those polls.

[IceSpear]

Sanders wins Iowa, loses everywhere else... for some reason Iowa voters really don't like Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

Clearly.

They aren't including Sanders in those polls.

If they hated her so much it wouldn't matter who she was paired against.

[henster]

Barely anyone outside of Vermont even knows who Sanders is your all acting like he's a national entity.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If IA voters picked Kerry over Dean because of electability, no way they choose a self-proclaimed socialist over Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Barely anyone outside of Vermont even knows who Sanders is your all acting like he's a national entity.

Hypothetical post from 1990: Barely anyone knows who Pat Buchanan is.  How is he going to win a third of the vote in New Hampshire?

[Mr. Illini]

Bernie would have better odds in NH than IA, IMO.

[Mr. Morden]

Bernie would have better odds in NH than IA, IMO.

He'd lose both.  But I agree, I think his vote %age would/will be higher in NH than Iowa.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Barely anyone outside of Vermont even knows who Sanders is your all acting like he's a national entity.

Hypothetical post from 1990: Barely anyone knows who Pat Buchanan is.  How is he going to win a third of the vote in New Hampshire?

Granted, his getting 37% in NH was unexpected but LOTS of people (especially voters) in 1990 knew who Pat Buchanan was - he was on TV every night, and had been for years. Eugene McCarthy might be a better comparison here.

[morgieb]

Only wins Vermont (if he's still running). Gets a reasonable margin in NH and Iowa, but sinks in the remaining pre-Super Tuesday primaries and promptly drops out.

[Hamster]

It is hard to say, but Hillary looks like Ed Muskie in 1972 compared to Sanders.

She's in a similar position right now, except for the fact that she has run for president before. Nobody knew what a train-wreck of a candidate Muskie would be in 1970. Unless Clinton is secretly doped up on pain meds, I really doubt she'll fall apart like Muskie.

Sanders to me looks more like McCarthy in '68. If Obama's last two years are awful then Clinton could be a sort of LBJ '68 candidate, in the sense that she embodies the (potentially massively unpopular) administration. However, unless the economy crashes next year (which is always possible), I cannot see Clinton losing to Sanders. And like McCarthy in '68, there is no way the Democratic Party would allow Sanders to get the Democratic nomination.

[nolesfan2011]

he'd win at least a dozen states/caucuses

[Mister Mets]

It's interesting. I could see Sanders as the Democratic equivalent of Ron Paul, with support among the activists and the young even if he has no shot of winning.

20-25% in Iowa and New Hampshire seems the best a Sanders could hope for.

If IA voters picked Kerry over Dean because of electability, no way they choose a self-proclaimed socialist over Clinton.

Massachusetts politicians do well in New Hampshire, and Kerry had the additional momentum of the Iowa win.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Barely anyone outside of Vermont even knows who Sanders is your all acting like he's a national entity.

                                                                          ^^                                                                           
                                                                           ; you're


Remember to use semicolons. 4/10, please see me after class ~ Mrs. Sanchez

[Bull Moose Base]

Barely anyone outside of Vermont even knows who Sanders is your all acting like he's a national entity.

                                                                          ^^                                                                           
                                                                           ; you're


Remember to use semicolons. 4/10, please see me after class ~ Mrs. Sanchez

Typical Republican hypocrisy!

Whoever is eventually anointed as the anti-Hillary.

Which will probably be someone like Jim Rogers, Darcy Richardson, or Lyndon LaRouche.

Your deluded if you don't think anyone will run against Hillary. Several candidates will, even if they have no chance in hell of beating her. They need to set themselves up in 2020 or 2024, after all.

Even if Hillary runs, expect Dean, Schweitzer, Sanders, and O'Malley to run, and maybe even a few other wildcards like Feingold, Hickenlooper, Nixon, Kaine, etc to jump in as well.

I said no such thing. Are Jim Rogers, Darcy Richardson, and Lyndon LaRouche not people?

Also, Kaine? http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/tim-kaine-hillary-clinton-2016-106300.html

Nixon said he'd only consider a run if Hillary didn't. Dean is obviously done with politics. Maybe Schweitzer will run as the Democratic version of Newt Gingrich to try to sell books.

Again, your wrong about the field being cleared. People like Thad McCotter run not to win but to sell books/advance a cause/build a national profile. Schweitzer and Sanders are going to run, and I expect at least two other Buddy Roemeresque candidates also in the race for personal gain. No field is ever completely cleared.

To clarify, I didn't go looking for this, I just remembered it. I admit that's no less weird.

[MATTROSE94]

He would do somewhat decent in the primaries in some of the very liberal states, but in the end would not win any of them.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Barely anyone outside of Vermont even knows who Sanders is your all acting like he's a national entity.

                                                                          ^^                                                                           
                                                                           ; you're


Remember to use semicolons. 4/10, please see me after class ~ Mrs. Sanchez

Typical Republican hypocrisy!

Whoever is eventually anointed as the anti-Hillary.

Which will probably be someone like Jim Rogers, Darcy Richardson, or Lyndon LaRouche.

Your deluded if you don't think anyone will run against Hillary. Several candidates will, even if they have no chance in hell of beating her. They need to set themselves up in 2020 or 2024, after all.

Even if Hillary runs, expect Dean, Schweitzer, Sanders, and O'Malley to run, and maybe even a few other wildcards like Feingold, Hickenlooper, Nixon, Kaine, etc to jump in as well.

I said no such thing. Are Jim Rogers, Darcy Richardson, and Lyndon LaRouche not people?

Also, Kaine? http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/tim-kaine-hillary-clinton-2016-106300.html

Nixon said he'd only consider a run if Hillary didn't. Dean is obviously done with politics. Maybe Schweitzer will run as the Democratic version of Newt Gingrich to try to sell books.

Again, your wrong about the field being cleared. People like Thad McCotter run not to win but to sell books/advance a cause/build a national profile. Schweitzer and Sanders are going to run, and I expect at least two other Buddy Roemeresque candidates also in the race for personal gain. No field is ever completely cleared.

To clarify, I didn't go looking for this, I just remembered it. I admit that's no less weird.

I make that error all the time; please understand that this is a joke. Henster's posting style bugs me as much as the "substance" of his posts.

Touche on the find though, your post is certainly sulfur mine material.