Nebraska 2nd: Chip Maxwell's "true" Tea Party conservative independent campaign

[Gass3268]

Former Republican State Senator Chip Maxwell is going to run as a non-partisan candidate in Nebraska 2nd as the "true" Tea Party conservative. He only needs 2,000 signatures by September 1st. 

http://www.omaha.com/news/metro/i-have-a-plan-to-save-the-country-chip-maxwell/article_0fe48084-e0f0-11e3-8a15-0017a43b2370.html

If he gets on the ballot I imagine we'd have to move this race to at least Toss-up, maybe Lean Dem.

[Indy Texas]

If the Democrats managed to get somebody in in 2014, getting reelected as an incumbent in 2016 would be doable. Is the Democratic candidate legitimate?

[JerryArkansas]

If the Democrats managed to get somebody in in 2014, getting reelected as an incumbent in 2016 would be doable. Is the Democratic candidate legitimate?

He is a state senator, I think he has a chance now.

[Miles]

I'd normally be pretty pessimistic about this; 46% of Republicans voting against Terry is pretty significant though.

[Vosem]

If the Democrats managed to get somebody in in 2014, getting reelected as an incumbent in 2016 would be doable. Is the Democratic candidate legitimate?

It would be doable, especially if 2016 is a very good Democratic year, but this is still a pretty red district that voted for Romney by a significant margin (7 points); there are only 5 districts that Democrats hold redder than this one (Peterson, Barrow, McIntyre, Rahall, Matheson); most of those are personality-dependent and at least two won't exist after 2014. Ashford can definitely win with a split field and unpopular incumbent in 2014, but he'd need uncommon good luck to hold it.

[Maxwell]

Holding the distrcit might be difficult, but Lee terry's luck as a terrible candidate may have run out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Lee doesn't lose to Ashford, he's gone in 2016 if he faces even a strong B-list opponent.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Anybody else think he may be a Democrat plant?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anybody else think he may be a Democrat plant?

No

[free my dawg]

Anybody else think he may be a Democrat plant?

Considering he actually ran for office as a Republican five years ago, I doubt it.

[windjammer]

Seriously, the dem candidate is extremely strong (his district is R+8 or something like that if I recall) and has an independent record/

Lee Terry is weak (see his performance in 2012 lol), but he's so lucky...

[LeBron]

D+1! Ashford, while he'll be attacked by the Terry camp as a liberal Democrat used to be a GOPer and has some right-wing views on immigration and the income tax which will help him among conservative Democrats. I would have preferred Ewing to Ashford, but the pipeline is obviously heavily unpopular in NE and if Ashford can hit Terry hard enough on that, despite it being a midterm, Ashford has a strong chance especially if Maxwell is on the ballot.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Seriously, the dem candidate is extremely strong (his district is R+8 or something like that if I recall) and has an independent record/

Lee Terry is weak (see his performance in 2012 lol), but he's so lucky...

That was a strong Dem year.  I suspect that if the 2014 climate remains strong for the GOP, he will be much stronger than in 2012.

Of course, we can't rule out the possibility of a Dem gain due to vote-splitting.

[windjammer]

Seriously, the dem candidate is extremely strong (his district is R+8 or something like that if I recall) and has an independent record/

Lee Terry is weak (see his performance in 2012 lol), but he's so lucky...

That was a strong Dem year.  I suspect that if the 2014 climate remains strong for the GOP, he will be much stronger than in 2012.

Of course, we can't rule out the possibility of a Dem gain due to vote-splitting.

Yep, I understand your analysis. But the rep is really really lucky, in 2008 a,d in 2012, he barely survived. And I don't expect 2014 to be a republican year (for the House I mean).

[free my dawg]

Seriously, the dem candidate is extremely strong (his district is R+8 or something like that if I recall) and has an independent record/

Lee Terry is weak (see his performance in 2012 lol), but he's so lucky...

That was a strong Dem year.  I suspect that if the 2014 climate remains strong for the GOP, he will be much stronger than in 2012.

Of course, we can't rule out the possibility of a Dem gain due to vote-splitting.

Yep, I understand your analysis. But the rep is really really lucky, in 2008 a,d in 2012, he barely survived. And I don't expect 2014 to be a republican year (for the House I mean).

We're talking about 2008 and 2012? Talk about his performance last week - he barely beat a Some Dude in his own primary.

With the crap happening to Grimm and Reed, two weak candidates about to get nominated to defend two open GOP seats, and this, Democrats might luck out and gain a few seats this year.

[rbt48]

Yes, Brad Ashford was a Republican until last year.  Then he became an Independent to run for Mayor of Omaha.  He lost, came in third or fourth I think.  Then when no Democrat remained to run against Terry, he registered as a D and announced his run. 

Actually, he was a state senator back in 1994 when he ran for this same Congressional seat and came in third in the primary.  He had been the establishment pick but lost badly to Jon Christensen who served two terms, then ran for the governorship nomination (lost to Mike Johanns) and Lee Terry took his place.

I have to wonder if Chip Maxwell might back out if he gets a private pledge that Terry won't seek another term in 2016.

[Miles]

I thought of this when I saw the locations of the House Majority PAC's last round of ad buys; they're spending $215K in the Omaha market.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Anybody else think he may be a Democrat plant?

Possibly, but that won't matter in the end.

Lee Terry is an inexplicably weak GOP incumbent.  He will not be the GOP candidate in 2016, period, and he could well lose this year. 

[minionofmidas]

...and lose to, basically, a Republican plant.

[Dixie Reborn]

Is there any recent polling of this race?

[free my dawg]

And Maxwell has dropped out, but will run in 2016.

But have no fear, Lee Terry is still talking about how Congressmen should be paid more because they haven't had a cost of living increase since 2008.