Cohn (NYT): Nunn's path very narrow; must perform as well as strong incumbent

[JRP1994]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/upshot/narrow-path-to-victory-for-michelle-nunn-in-georgia.html?rref=upshot&_r=0

"In the midterm balloting, the share of whites will be around 64 percent of registered voters, down from 72 percent in 2002, when the Democratic senator Max Cleland lost re-election by 7 points. Ms. Nunn will need nearly 30 percent of white voters to prevail. If Mr. Cleland were running today, his 30 or 31 percent of white voters would probably be enough to squeak out a win.

But most Democrats running for federal office in Georgia fall well short of that 30 percent. The next-highest tally was Jim Martin’s 26 percent in 2008, when he lost a close Senate race to Saxby Chambliss, a first-term incumbent Republican running in a disastrous year for the G.O.P.

The difference between 26 and 30 percent of white voters might not seem like much, but it is very significant in the South. It is even harder for Democrats to reach 30 percent of Georgia’s white voters today than it was in 2002. The state’s white voters have moved toward the right since then, in part because the old Southern white Democrats have departed the electorate, but also because the national Democratic Party has alienated conservative white voters. President Obama might not have even received 20 percent of Georgia’s white voters in 2012.

As a result, you would expect a generic Democrat to be a very significant underdog against a generic Republican in an open Senate contest. To win, Ms. Nunn would need to perform as well as a strong incumbent, but she has not even run for office until now."

[Del Tachi]

Yeah, Democrats are after fool's gold in Georgia. 

[Ichabod]

Well, Republican has become experts in autoimploding very,very winnable (or even safe) races, and Kingston/Perdue runoff could eventually turn very nasty, so who knows.

Of course, if this is Generic Democrat v. Generic Republican, yes, Republican will likely win.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

This race is the definition of "Leans R."

[GaussLaw]

Any hopes of winning this barring a Democratic-leaning 2014 election were shattered when Broun and Gingrey lost.

Congratulations, Senator Perdue (or possibly Kingston).

[DrScholl]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

[Never]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

[Lief 🗽]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

Perdue and Kingston support things that are much more unpopular than Obamacare (like not expanding medicaid or raising the minimum wage).

[Never]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

Perdue and Kingston support things that are much more unpopular than Obamacare (like not expanding medicaid or raising the minimum wage).

At least those are real positions that voters can check out for themselves. The people of Georgia should know whether a candidate supports or opposes an important issue like ObamaCare instead of having Nunn sidestep it when she is asked about whether she would have voted to pass the law or not.

[DrScholl]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

Kingston thinks repetitive motion injuries at work are the same thing to lifting turkeys while grocery shopping, so he's not very bright.  Lots of voters in Georgia do not have college degrees, particularly in rural areas that even Roy Barnes managed to over perform in during the 2010 election.

[JRP1994]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

Kingston thinks repetitive motion injuries at work are the same thing to lifting turkeys while grocery shopping, so he's not very bright.  Lots of voters in Georgia do not have college degrees, particularly in rural areas that even Roy Barnes managed to over perform in during the 2010 election.

He who must not be named.

[Maxwell]

Kingston is dumb and Perdue has a negative view of people without college degrees. Nunn has a good chance.

Kingston isn't what I consider dumb, and Perdue's gaffe isn't that serious when you look at the bigger picture.

Nunn can't even define her position on ObamaCare. In a genuine swing state, that might not wreck her, but in Republican Georgia, that will sink her.

Kingston thinks repetitive motion injuries at work are the same thing to lifting turkeys while grocery shopping, so he's not very bright.  Lots of voters in Georgia do not have college degrees, particularly in rural areas that even Roy Barnes managed to over perform in during the 2010 election.

He who must not be named.

King Roy the rat