What southern states are trending Democratic?

[illegaloperation]

Like the title said: What southern states are trending Democratic?

Just to be clear, I am not talking about static noise from high African American turnout because of Obama. I am talking about states that are trending Democratic because of demographic shifts.

There's the traditional one (Florida), new ones (Virginia, North Carolina), and up-coming one (Georgia).

Are there any other? (Note that I am excluding Texas.)

The upper south seems to be trending strongly Republican.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia, North Carolina, and maybe Florida and Georgia. Though those two have stayed largely the same for the last 15-20 years. All others are either staying the same (SC, TX, AL, MS) or trending republican (KY, WV, TN, AR, OK, LA)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I know people talk about TX, but honestly, I'd need to see the results that show it's trending that way before I really believe it. I know it was a battleground state in the 1990's, but then W. Bush carried it by 22 points, McCain carried it by 12 points in a TERRIBLE year for Republicans, and then Romney carried it by 16 points. GA, AZ, MT, ND and SD all were purple-red at best in 2008, yet TX remained uncompetitive. Sure, it could easily become competitive in 20-25 years, but anything quicker than that I'm not even going to think about believing until I see actual presidential election results that prove it.

VA and NC are trending democratic, as are GA and possibly AZ and FL. A lot of the south, including the once-competitive state of MO, is actually trending republican.

[Non Swing Voter]

All of the coastal states are trending democrat, probably even SC to a lesser degree than the others. 

Virginia is obviously trending the fastest due to: (1) increased minority population, (2) increased urban/suburban population in NOVA.

Florida is trending (or will be trending) democrat due to: (1) demographic changes, (2) increased urban/suburban population, particularly in the I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa, and (3) northern transplants moderating the state generally while the Republican party continues to get more extreme on social issues.

The others are trending for similar reasons but at a slower pace it seems.  North Carolina and Georgia the next fastest, South Carolina the slowest.

If Hillary runs I think Republicans will be surprised how poorly the GOP will do in Florida.  I could see her winning by over 5 points despite the state being fairly even over the last few elections.  She's not going to do worse than Obama in South Florida, but will probably do better in central Florida as that part of the state continues to gain relative significance.  She will probably also do slightly better than Obama in Northern Florida.