Odds GOP wins 2016 Presidential Election if Clinton doesn't run

[IceSpear]

Depends on who the nominees are. If it's just generic D vs. generic R, I'd think demographic trends and the Democratic electoral college advantage would be enough to cancel out "Democratic fatigue" and make it close to 50-50.

The main problem Democrats have without Hillary is that the field is pretty weak. Biden has bad ratings nationally and is known as a gaffe machine. O'Malley is as exciting as white bread. Schweitzer is a joke. Sanders and Warren are probably too left wing to win the general. Cuomo is the opposite, he's probably too right wing to bring out the base in full force. If Hillary does sit it out, I'm hoping the nominee will be someone like Warner or Gillibrand.

That said, the Republican field isn't exactly stellar either. You've got Christie who looked formidable until he was tarred as corrupt, Jeb who has his toxic last name, Paul who has shown the propensity to implode on the campaign trail and is very unorthodox and risky, then you've got the clown car of Cruz/Santorum/Trump etc. that stand no chance but will make the others look bad by association. Walker scares me a bit simply because he is way too successful in a state he should not be successful in.