Odds GOP wins 2016 Presidential Election if Clinton doesn't run

[Mister Mets]

I went with between 50-65 percent. The Democrats have an okay bench, and some electoral strengths. It's also worth noting that there are a few candidates whose general election odds would be close to HRC. The process of winning the Democratic primary should demonstrate the political talents of someone who hasn't yet been tested. A former Governor of Montana is a horrible presidential candidate. A former Governor of Montana who won a competitive presidential primary can be a powerhouse.

Republicans still have a few strengths. After peaking, parties consistently lose votes with successive presidential elections. Republicans did okay against Obama, especially compared to out parties who went on to take back the White House. The bench is decent.

There is a question of whether the winner of primaries will have to appeal to the base's lowest common denominator which could weaken them for general elections.