Georgia-12 Congressional Race: John Barrow (D) vs. Rick Allen (R)

[Frodo]

With Rick Allen having locked up the GOP nomination with 54% of the vote (thereby avoiding a potentially expensive run-off), how likely is it that this seat will finally go Republican in November?    

[free my dawg]

Leans D. The only thing that can stop Barrow is climate.

[Miles]

Voted Lean D but closer to Tilt D, IMO. Barrow is one of the best campaigners in Congress.

[Never]

Lean D. Barrow is a particularly strong candidate. It would take further deterioration in the national climate for this race to become a tossup. In all likelihood, Barrow will keep winning this district right up until his retirement. 

[Del Tachi]

Pure tossup. 

[windjammer]

Lean Democrat.

[LeBron]

Leans Democratic. Even if it's a Romney district, he still won comfortably in 2012 and Israel and the DCCC seems to have no problem in giving Barrow an even bigger pocket of money for ads. He'll probably end up winning by a small 3-4 point margin though because of lower turnout, no runoff, and Allen doesn't seem like a "Do-Nothing" Anderson, unfortunately. He's certainly got the money, backings, and conservative credentials (supports repealing Obamacare and very anti-drug) to make it competitive, but Barrow survives in the end.

[Maxwell]

Toss-up, Tilt D

[Frodo]

Is everyone still sticking with their ratings of this race? 

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean Democrat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think he hangs on. The toss up senate and governor races can't hurt.

[Maxwell]

Is everyone still sticking with their ratings of this race? 

I could move to Lean D.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I have this at lean D, though it's closer to safe than a tossup.

[Vosem]

Leans D. The climate seems pretty pro-Democratic in Georgia right now, and Barrow runs far ahead of Generic D. Even if Deal and Perdue pull it out, Barrow should be able to get another term. When he retires or more ideal circumstances come up (not even necessarily in a wave year), this seat will fall, but it doesn't really seem like 2014 is it.

[Brewer]

Voted Safe D then and now. Barrow is simply a kind of guy that I can't see going down in a climate better than 2010.

[Devils30]

His district went Romney by like 10 points so I would expect Nunn to stay close in it, enough to help Barrow.

[Recalcuate]

His district went Romney by like 10 points so I would expect Nunn to stay close in it, enough to help Barrow.

Barrow's one heck of a politician to stay entrenched in a R+9 district. I doubt the Nunn and Carter races will have any bearing on how he fares. Barrow should keep the seat. Leans D either way.

[Frodo]

Have there been any recent polls (at least from the last couple of weeks) on this race, or are all the polling firms just taking his re-election for granted?  

[Miles]

^ I think it was last month I heard that Barrow was the only one of the NRCC's targets that was consistently polling over 50% in their internals.

[Adam Griffin]

Leans Democratic. Even if it's a Romney district, he still won comfortably in 2012 and Israel and the DCCC seems to have no problem in giving Barrow an even bigger pocket of money for ads. He'll probably end up winning by a small 3-4 point margin though because of lower turnout, no runoff, and Allen doesn't seem like a "Do-Nothing" Anderson, unfortunately. He's certainly got the money, backings, and conservative credentials (supports repealing Obamacare and very anti-drug) to make it competitive, but Barrow survives in the end.

John Barrow sees Rick Allen's conservative credentials; proceeds to run right of them and throw them in the trash

Seriously, watch the man's commercials and ask yourself how this could be anything but Safe D.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Leans Democratic. Even if it's a Romney district, he still won comfortably in 2012 and Israel and the DCCC seems to have no problem in giving Barrow an even bigger pocket of money for ads. He'll probably end up winning by a small 3-4 point margin though because of lower turnout, no runoff, and Allen doesn't seem like a "Do-Nothing" Anderson, unfortunately. He's certainly got the money, backings, and conservative credentials (supports repealing Obamacare and very anti-drug) to make it competitive, but Barrow survives in the end.

John Barrow sees Rick Allen's conservative credentials; proceeds to run right of them and throw them in the trash

Seriously, watch the man's commercials and ask yourself how this could be anything but Safe D.

Wow. He can't lose now.

[Adam Griffin]

Leans Democratic. Even if it's a Romney district, he still won comfortably in 2012 and Israel and the DCCC seems to have no problem in giving Barrow an even bigger pocket of money for ads. He'll probably end up winning by a small 3-4 point margin though because of lower turnout, no runoff, and Allen doesn't seem like a "Do-Nothing" Anderson, unfortunately. He's certainly got the money, backings, and conservative credentials (supports repealing Obamacare and very anti-drug) to make it competitive, but Barrow survives in the end.

John Barrow sees Rick Allen's conservative credentials; proceeds to run right of them and throw them in the trash

Seriously, watch the man's commercials and ask yourself how this could be anything but Safe D.

Wow. He can't lose now.

[Frodo]

^ I think it was last month I heard that Barrow was the only one of the NRCC's targets that was consistently polling over 50% in their internals.

Didn't Cook rate this seat as a toss-up earlier this month?