Clinton/Kaine vs Paul/Toomey

[Farage]

What are your predictions for this type of match-ups? What are the best and worst scenarios for both tickets? Discuss

[Never]

In this matchup, I think Paul/Toomey would win, since Paul is a fairly strong candidate and might be able to barely defeat Clinton. A best case scenario for Paul would be a weak economy and a mediocre campaign by Clinton:

Rand Paul/Pat Toomey - 288 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 250 electoral votes

Hillary's best case scenario is to can tar Paul as an extremist, hold Obama's coalition together, and hope that Toomey never catches fire as a viable running mate.

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 323 electoral votes
Rand Paul/Pat Toomey - 215 electoral votes

[pbrower2a]

The VP nominee can rarely swing a key state. The last two VP's were from Delaware (3EV) and Wyoming (3EV). Gore was chosen for ideological cohesion with the Democratic nominee for President, being from a state demographically and politically similar to the State of the Presidential nominee. The elder Bush was ambiguous in what state he was from. Mondale was from a state that wasn't going to swing.

Ryan still lost in Wisconsin. Palin was simply a blunder. Edwards lost in North Carolina. Lieberman was chosen to get out the Jewish vote. Kemp had no chance of swinging New York. Quayle was from a sure R state. Ferraro could not swing New York. Dole was from a sure R state.

If he is going to be a one-term Senator because he can't win re-election to the Senate in 2016, then Toomey might be a low-risk choice. But is he also a low-reward choice?