Which state would Hillary Clinton perform stronger in?

[JRP1994]

What do you think? This isn't assuming that she'd win either one, but merely which one she would perform stronger in.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Arkansas easily, IMO.  The last two election results in Arkansas might not be the best description of the state's true politics...

[justfollowingtheelections]

Arkansas easily, IMO.  The last two election results in Arkansas might not be the best description of the state's true politics...

No, I think they are.  But Bill's from Arkansas and they're very proud of him there.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Indiana, I can see her doing well there.
Think that she will so better there than most people here are thinking.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

AR. IN was a fluke in 08, and Obama's numbers were still somewhat inflated there in 12. In fact I think she could actually do poorer, maybe 41-43%. Hillary is getting at least Gore numbers in AR, unless she picks a VP as culturally offensive to them as Obama.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Arkansas easily, IMO.  The last two election results in Arkansas might not be the best description of the state's true politics...

No, I think they are.  But Bill's from Arkansas and they're very proud of him there.

Then why does Arkansas still have a huge registered Democrat advantage?  Why do they have an EXTREMELY popular Democrat governor?  Why have they sent a Democraric Senator back to DC multiple times?  Why did Gore and Kerry do so much better there?

I think there's quite a bit of evidence that Obama was a huge reason for the state's "rightward shift."

[Never]

Arkansas is more hospitable to Hillary. Indiana seems like it is reverting back to being the only reliable Republican state in the Midwest.  That's not to say that Hillary won't do better than Obama 2012 there, but I think that she will win Arkansas by a few points and lose Indiana by one or two.

[dmmidmi]

Given that polling is currently showing her with a lead against most opponents in Arkansas, that has to be the answer.

There hasn't been any polling out of Indiana, so we can only guess how well she'll do there. Assuming that the 2008 result was an aberration, Hillary probably won't win Indiana's electoral votes.

[Mister Mets]

I'm conflicted.

Arkansas was fairly close in 2000, a state Gore lost by five and a half points (a six point deviation from the popular vote. Kerry lost it by 9.76 (a 7.63 deviation from the popular vote.) Against Obama, it was 27 points off the popular vote, so it could very well be a state that is much more hospitable to the right Democrat (as evident by Pryor's numbers and the Governor.)

Indiana's still closer to the popular vote than Arkansas, by over 20 points in 2008 and 13 1/2 points in 2012, although it can be a state where a Chicago politician can do better than the typical Democrat.

I'll go with Arkansas.