Surnames and voting
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Author Topic: Surnames and voting  (Read 2379 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: May 24, 2014, 07:24:55 PM »
« edited: May 24, 2014, 07:29:18 PM by pbrower2a »

TargetSmart Communications, a Democratic data firm, used its voter data to find out which way people lean politically -- and how likely they are to vote this Election Day -- based on last names.

As you might expect, the majority of Clintons registered to vote are Democrats, while two-thirds of Romneys are Republicans. Bushes, however, are split about evenly, and the vast majority of Rubios and Jindals vote blue. Voters named Obama number fewer than 100 -- the minimal level for inclusion -- although we can probably take a guess.

http://targetsmartcommunications.com/showcase/last-name-lookup/

I picked some surnames based on ethnicity. I was tempted to use a common German surname -- but just about any German surname "can be Jewish", which can throw things off severely.

Rodriguez 334417 D 81010 R
Kowalski  6897 D 5797 R
Kim 68985 D 30464 R
Nguyen 110222 D 77933
Patel 97335 R 24113 D
Levin 10952 D 4027 R
Brenneman 1365 D 2216 R
Washington 115263 D 6129 R
Rossi 10163 D 8663 R
Nagy 5610 D 5180 R

Know well that someone with the surname "Rossi" may have been born "Kowalski", and vice-versa.  

Mine?

Brower (could be Dutch, German, Swiss, Ashkenazi Jewish, or Irish... and there are black people with that surname) so divides:

4743 D  5743 R



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2014, 08:22:21 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2014, 09:46:08 PM by pbrower2a »

OK -- let's try some Presidents:

Washington 115263 D 6129 R

Don't expect seeing many people with that surname who look the most important figure of war and politics since Julius Caesar.

Adams 162965 D 132054 R

Very common surname. Counts for two Presidents.

Jefferson 33389 D 4324 R

Not many redheads seem to have this surname.

Madison 12791 D 6163 R

Not all that common a surname.

Monroe 23838 D 14574 R

Jackson 353399 D 126179 R

The first seven Presidents (Adams is not double-counted) have surnames more D than R.

Van Buren 803 D 646 R

I might have used this as a proxy for a Dutch surname.

Some others:

Lincoln 6134 D 5237 R

The first Republican President gets a surprising result.  

Roosevelt 479 D 249 R

You would expect more of a split between the second-best Republican President and the Democrat who saved Western Christian Civilization  with the aid of his buddy Churchill.

Eisenhower 314 D 365 R

I am going to figure that most people with the surname Eisenhower are somehow related to Dwight Eisenhower.

Kennedy 70499 D 55752 R


Ask not...

Ford 79408 D 48821 R

OK... now for some surnames associated with foreign politics --

Churchill 4423 D 4407 R

Even split.

Havel 632 D 746 D

You didn't expect Walesa or Gorbachev, did you?

Castro 50825 D 12275 R

Commies not identified.

Hussein 2857 D 226 R

Reference to one of the vilest figures in an American history book (I have Kim as an alternative). I didn't expect to find adequate numbers of "Tojo", "Mussolini", "Stalin", or someone whose initials are  "AH".

I can give the surnames of three Nazi war criminals:

Funk (fence of Nazi loot from concentration camps) 7090 D  9731 R
Hess (#2 man in the Nazi Party at one time)  18045 D  23046 R
Keitel (Hitler's military lackey) 182 D 179 D

Harvey Keitel is apparently no relation.

Founder of Communist ideology:

Marx 4417 D 4248 R

Surprisingly even in view of Karl.`  

Now let's go musical:

Bach 4044 D 4144 R

Any counterpoint, anyone?

Strauss 6098 D 4428 R

Try to waltz around that one.

Mahler 1730 D 2037 R

A surprise in view of the origin of the greatest symphonist since Beethoven.

Dvorak 2591 D 3108 R

Czech diacritics not included in the New World.

Ives 2827 D 3197 R

You didn't expect Beethoven, did you? I couldn't get adequate numbers for "Mozart" or "Gershwin".

Ellington 4453 D 3247 R

Take the A-Train with this one.  

Addendum: I found one possible spelling of the surname of a great Russian composer. But this is how the name would be spelled in Polish, and by descendants of some Polish immigrants to the US:

Czajkowski 916 D 787 R
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2014, 08:57:08 AM »

When Alvin Greene was nominated for the Senate, there was a claim that his spelling with three e's was recognizable as black.

But among South Carolinians, Green's are 8125D:2212R, while Greene's are 2562D:1515R.

Nguyen is the 63rd most frequent last name in the US.

Riley can be spelled Reilly (and several other ways).  The former is much more frequent in the South: Alabama 1874:107, Texas 6227:886; while in the Northeast both spelling are about as common: New York 4038:4860; Massachusetts 2547:2497.  Riley is more likely to be Protestant, Reilly to be Catholic.  Riley is racially ambiguous, which makes it a Democratic  name, particularly in the South, while Reilly tends to be more Republican.

Peterson is the 58th most common name, 84th among Democrats, but 41st among Republicans.  There are more Peterson's in Minnesota than any other state, which helps lead to 56% voter turnout.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2014, 04:00:52 PM »

My surname was 518 D / 194 R. It's pretty exclusively found among Middle Eastern immigrants, so not a big surprise there.

My mother's surname was 106,656 D / 82,487 R. It's a fairly commonplace English surname and it's one that African-Americans often have, which I'm guessing explains the Democratic lean. (The map shows the ones in the Black Belt Southern states being more Democratic and the ones in the Northeast and Midwest being more Republican.)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2014, 05:25:46 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2014, 04:58:43 PM by pbrower2a »

Now for some literary license:

Hemingway 2864 D 1388 R

Clemens (as in Samuel Langhorne)  4728 D 5318 R

(Could have also used that for baseball).

Beecher (her maiden name) 1862 D 1940 R

Stowe (her married name)  3410 D 3927 R

Frank (as in Anne, writer of an incomplete masterpiece at age 15) 25182 D 21782 R

Dickinson 9110 D 10319 R

Rosenbaum (original surname of Ayn Rand) 4281 D 2549 R

She would be disappointed.

Irving 7195 D 3020 R

Hawthorne 7331 D 4415 R

Dickens 7137 D 4844 R

Frost 14147 D 15003 R

Whitman  6597 D 6858 R

OK -- drugs and alcohol

Coke 966D 634 R
Wine 1482 D 1446 R
High 4267 D 4085 R
Bender 13494 D 14272 R
Beer 2050 D 2120 R
Grass 1371 D 1593 R
Horse 112 D 34 R
Still 3935 D 4244 R
Smoke 516 D 262 R
Smoker 463 D 688R
Head 9630 D 9595 R
Upper 79 D 68R
Downer 2128 D 1480 R
Crank 1504 D 1163 R
Stone  53503 D 52 342 R
Stoner 5004 D 6158 R

...and where dopers and drunk drivers end up going:

Klink 1068 D  1352 R

-- OR --

Graves  33894 D 24290 R
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Flake
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2014, 06:54:57 PM »

If your name is 'Debbie Downer' there's a 56% chance that you're a Democrat
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2014, 10:33:48 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2014, 03:04:38 PM by pbrower2a »

deleted due to near-duplication
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2014, 11:31:09 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2014, 11:33:35 AM by They call me PR »

My surname is not common enough in the United States.

Schumacher (which is a surname found on my paternal line)  is 57% R 43% D.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2014, 12:58:46 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2014, 01:39:37 AM by King of Kensington »

Dutch surnames appear to be the most Republican leaning (i.e. De Jong, Vries, Visser, De Boer, Bakker, etc.), usually over 60%. This is what I expected, given that Dutch Americans are known to be quite politically conservative.

Next are German and Scandinavian names (Schmidt, Hansen, Andersen, etc.), generally in the mid to high 50s.  White Midwesterners, mostly.

Italian names like Rossi, Russo, Volpe and Lombardi seem to be slightly Democrat, low to mid 50s.  Not sure if Latinos with Italian surnames are pushing it a bit towards Democrats, as Italian Americans are thought to be politically conservative (though on the other hand, they are concentrated in the Northeast and maybe this conservatism is overstated?)

Polish (Nowak, Kowalski) and Irish (McCarthy, Reilly, O'Brien, O'Connor) also lean a bit Democratic.

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Nathan
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2014, 02:28:52 AM »

Dutch surnames appear to be the most Republican leaning (i.e. De Jong, Vries, Visser, De Boer, Bakker, etc.), usually over 60%. This is what I expected, given that Dutch Americans are known to be quite politically conservative.

Next are German and Scandinavian names (Schmidt, Hansen, Andersen, etc.), generally in the mid to high 50s.  White Midwesterners, mostly.

Italian names like Rossi, Russo, Volpe and Lombardi seem to be slightly Democrat, low to mid 50s.  Not sure if Latinos with Italian surnames are pushing it a bit towards Democrats, as Italian Americans are thought to be politically conservative (though on the other hand, they are concentrated in the Northeast and maybe this conservatism is overstated?)

Polish (Nowak, Kowalski) and Irish (McCarthy, Reilly, O'Brien, O'Connor) also lean a bit Democratic.



This is the case.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2014, 11:13:45 AM »

Mine is 64% to 36% Democratic.
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2014, 02:52:40 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2014, 03:07:32 PM by Torie »

The utility does not work for me, but I assume my surname "Dunn" is pretty heavily Dem, since I suspect a substantial percentage of Dunns are black, given that the name is most common in the South, and thus there were a lot of Dunn slave masters out there.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2014, 03:30:20 PM »


What happens on Staten Island stays on Staten Island?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2014, 01:17:27 PM »

Not quite right on the Dutch. Recent Dutch immigrants, yes, but the Dutch were also early settlers of New York and New Jersey when New York was New Amsterdam. Note that "Van Buren" is  more D than R.   
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jimrtex
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2014, 02:54:51 PM »

The utility does not work for me, but I assume my surname "Dunn" is pretty heavily Dem, since I suspect a substantial percentage of Dunns are black, given that the name is most common in the South, and thus there were a lot of Dunn slave masters out there.
Not particularly.  It is 54% D, 46% R.

It is the 167th most common name, 152nd Republican, 187th Democratic.

The South is erratic.  70D-30R LA, 39D-61R SC, strongly R is AL and TN, weakly D in GA, weakly R in FL.

There is Democratic concentration in the Midwest, centered on Minnesota.   Utah is 79% R, perhaps some Mormon Dunn's. 
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2014, 12:34:31 AM »

Cho: 9090 D to 3864 R

Goring: 332 D to 157 R

Himmler: 95 R to 64 D

Speer: 4965 R to 3577 D
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politicallefty
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2014, 09:33:17 AM »

My surname is 54% Democratic and 46% Republican. I was expecting a slight Republican lean. For what it's worth, the origin is English.

My mom's maiden name (also of English origin) is one of the more common surnames in the US (and the UK for that matter). It's 57% Democratic and 43% Republican.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2014, 11:43:55 AM »

Mine is 58% D/42% R, with 48% turnout rate. It also happens to be one of the top 10 most common surnames in the U.S.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2014, 12:27:24 PM »

I made a map where each state's governor represents their respective state:



Not surprisingly, names like Martinez, Sandoval, and Jindal are heavily Democratic. I think Hassan may have been the most Democratic name overall (88% D to 12% R). The most Republican name was Hickenlooper (78% R to 22% D).

Apparently, Kasich, Kitzhaber, and Shumlin are too unique, so they can't be used.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2014, 07:33:20 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2014, 09:38:37 PM by pbrower2a »

Cities:

Boston 7320 D  3488 R
Berkeley 697 D 326 R
Austin 47939 D 33632 R

Any surprise?

Cleveland 12313 D 9534 R
Houston 25808 D 13232 R
Dallas 3921 D  2392 R
Denver 266 D 222R
Lansing 1153 D 1209 R
Rochester 1515 D 1141 R
Springfield 1560 D 902 R
Fremont 292 D 244 R
Lubbock 48 D 53 R
Ogden 5981 D 7347 R


and a couple of dumps:

Stockton 4102 D 5102 R
Compton 11674 D 12974 R

I already have Washington, Madison, Monroe, Jackson, and Lincoln, thank you.  

London 7765 D 3360 R
Paris 6384 D 4925 D
Berlin 3239 D 2305 R
Madrid 8760 D 2608 R
Rome 2116 D 1424 R
Wiener (literally, "from Vienna") 2545 D 1231 R
Prager (literally, "from Prague") 929 D 573 R
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2014, 04:55:11 PM »

My last name is 51% D, 49% R.  Predicted turnout is 51%. 
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Hifly
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2014, 06:11:29 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2014, 06:13:39 PM by Hifly »

My surname is 71% Democratic, and extremely uncommon.
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Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2014, 07:09:39 PM »


It ought to, certainly.

In all seriousness, Italian-Americans as a whole are about on par with the country politically. In the Northeast you have places like Staten Island and the further-out parts of North and Central Jersey and parts of Connecticut, and then you have places like inner North Jersey and the predominantly Italian areas of Massachusetts, other parts of Connecticut, and Rhode Island, many of which are culturally 'conservative' by some metric or another but not in a way that makes their voting patterns markedly less Democratic.
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Njall
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« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2014, 07:16:36 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2014, 07:23:20 PM by Fmr. Assemblyman Njall »

My Surname:
-Fairly common name (in the top 40)
-53% D, 47% R
-54% Probability of voting in Nov. 2014

My Mother's Maiden Name:
-Not at all a common name (almost 4,000th most common)
-53% R, 47% D
-55% Probability of voting in Nov. 2014


Edit:
It would also appear that there are 706 registered Pancakes, 54% of whom are Republican
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #24 on: June 19, 2014, 05:28:28 PM »

My Surname
128th most common surname in US (115,669)
Democratic: 65,766 (57%)
Republican: 49,903 (43%)
49% probability of voting in Nov. 2014
Net electoral impact of 7,696 Dem votes
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