Surnames and voting

[pbrower2a]

TargetSmart Communications, a Democratic data firm, used its voter data to find out which way people lean politically -- and how likely they are to vote this Election Day -- based on last names.

As you might expect, the majority of Clintons registered to vote are Democrats, while two-thirds of Romneys are Republicans. Bushes, however, are split about evenly, and the vast majority of Rubios and Jindals vote blue. Voters named Obama number fewer than 100 -- the minimal level for inclusion -- although we can probably take a guess.

http://targetsmartcommunications.com/showcase/last-name-lookup/

I picked some surnames based on ethnicity. I was tempted to use a common German surname -- but just about any German surname "can be Jewish", which can throw things off severely.

Rodriguez 334417 D 81010 R
Kowalski  6897 D 5797 R
Kim 68985 D 30464 R
Nguyen 110222 D 77933
Patel 97335 R 24113 D
Levin 10952 D 4027 R
Brenneman 1365 D 2216 R
Washington 115263 D 6129 R
Rossi 10163 D 8663 R
Nagy 5610 D 5180 R

Know well that someone with the surname "Rossi" may have been born "Kowalski", and vice-versa.  

Mine?

Brower (could be Dutch, German, Swiss, Ashkenazi Jewish, or Irish... and there are black people with that surname) so divides:

4743 D  5743 R

[pbrower2a]

OK -- let's try some Presidents:

Washington 115263 D 6129 R

Don't expect seeing many people with that surname who look the most important figure of war and politics since Julius Caesar.

Adams 162965 D 132054 R

Very common surname. Counts for two Presidents.

Jefferson 33389 D 4324 R

Not many redheads seem to have this surname.

Madison 12791 D 6163 R

Not all that common a surname.

Monroe 23838 D 14574 R

Jackson 353399 D 126179 R

The first seven Presidents (Adams is not double-counted) have surnames more D than R.

Van Buren 803 D 646 R

I might have used this as a proxy for a Dutch surname.

Some others:

Lincoln 6134 D 5237 R

The first Republican President gets a surprising result.  

Roosevelt 479 D 249 R

You would expect more of a split between the second-best Republican President and the Democrat who saved Western Christian Civilization  with the aid of his buddy Churchill.

Eisenhower 314 D 365 R

I am going to figure that most people with the surname Eisenhower are somehow related to Dwight Eisenhower.

Kennedy 70499 D 55752 R


Ask not...

Ford 79408 D 48821 R

OK... now for some surnames associated with foreign politics --

Churchill 4423 D 4407 R

Even split.

Havel 632 D 746 D

You didn't expect Walesa or Gorbachev, did you?

Castro 50825 D 12275 R

Commies not identified.

Hussein 2857 D 226 R

Reference to one of the vilest figures in an American history book (I have Kim as an alternative). I didn't expect to find adequate numbers of "Tojo", "Mussolini", "Stalin", or someone whose initials are  "AH".

I can give the surnames of three Nazi war criminals:

Funk (fence of Nazi loot from concentration camps) 7090 D  9731 R
Hess (#2 man in the Nazi Party at one time)  18045 D  23046 R
Keitel (Hitler's military lackey) 182 D 179 D

Harvey Keitel is apparently no relation.

Founder of Communist ideology:

Marx 4417 D 4248 R

Surprisingly even in view of Karl.`  

Now let's go musical:

Bach 4044 D 4144 R

Any counterpoint, anyone?

Strauss 6098 D 4428 R

Try to waltz around that one.

Mahler 1730 D 2037 R

A surprise in view of the origin of the greatest symphonist since Beethoven.

Dvorak 2591 D 3108 R

Czech diacritics not included in the New World.

Ives 2827 D 3197 R

You didn't expect Beethoven, did you? I couldn't get adequate numbers for "Mozart" or "Gershwin".

Ellington 4453 D 3247 R

Take the A-Train with this one.  

Addendum: I found one possible spelling of the surname of a great Russian composer. But this is how the name would be spelled in Polish, and by descendants of some Polish immigrants to the US:

Czajkowski 916 D 787 R

[pbrower2a]

Now for some literary license:

Hemingway 2864 D 1388 R

Clemens (as in Samuel Langhorne)  4728 D 5318 R

(Could have also used that for baseball).

Beecher (her maiden name) 1862 D 1940 R

Stowe (her married name)  3410 D 3927 R

Frank (as in Anne, writer of an incomplete masterpiece at age 15) 25182 D 21782 R

Dickinson 9110 D 10319 R

Rosenbaum (original surname of Ayn Rand) 4281 D 2549 R

She would be disappointed.

Irving 7195 D 3020 R

Hawthorne 7331 D 4415 R

Dickens 7137 D 4844 R

Frost 14147 D 15003 R

Whitman  6597 D 6858 R

OK -- drugs and alcohol

Coke 966D 634 R
Wine 1482 D 1446 R
High 4267 D 4085 R
Bender 13494 D 14272 R
Beer 2050 D 2120 R
Grass 1371 D 1593 R
Horse 112 D 34 R
Still 3935 D 4244 R
Smoke 516 D 262 R
Smoker 463 D 688R
Head 9630 D 9595 R
Upper 79 D 68R
Downer 2128 D 1480 R
Crank 1504 D 1163 R
Stone  53503 D 52 342 R
Stoner 5004 D 6158 R

...and where dopers and drunk drivers end up going:

Klink 1068 D  1352 R

-- OR --

Graves  33894 D 24290 R

[pbrower2a]

deleted due to near-duplication

[pbrower2a]

Not quite right on the Dutch. Recent Dutch immigrants, yes, but the Dutch were also early settlers of New York and New Jersey when New York was New Amsterdam. Note that "Van Buren" is  more D than R.   

[pbrower2a]

Cities:

Boston 7320 D  3488 R
Berkeley 697 D 326 R
Austin 47939 D 33632 R

Any surprise?

Cleveland 12313 D 9534 R
Houston 25808 D 13232 R
Dallas 3921 D  2392 R
Denver 266 D 222R
Lansing 1153 D 1209 R
Rochester 1515 D 1141 R
Springfield 1560 D 902 R
Fremont 292 D 244 R
Lubbock 48 D 53 R
Ogden 5981 D 7347 R


and a couple of dumps:

Stockton 4102 D 5102 R
Compton 11674 D 12974 R

I already have Washington, Madison, Monroe, Jackson, and Lincoln, thank you.  

London 7765 D 3360 R
Paris 6384 D 4925 D
Berlin 3239 D 2305 R
Madrid 8760 D 2608 R
Rome 2116 D 1424 R
Wiener (literally, "from Vienna") 2545 D 1231 R
Prager (literally, "from Prague") 929 D 573 R

[pbrower2a]

How about a hitting a home run?

Bonds* 6302 D 2013 R
Aaron 6173 D 2059 R
Ruth 5100 D 4926 R

Pretty even.

Mays 18256 D 9467 R
Rodriguez* 334417 D 81010 R
Griffey 997 1021 R

Pretty even.

Thome 938 D 1159 R
Sosa* 13973 D 3563 R
Robinson 284505 D 111285 D
McGwire* (enough home runs, but not enough people).
Killebrew 1185 D 945 D
Palmeiro* (enough home runs, but not enough people).
Jackson 353399 D 126270 R
Ramirez* 127331 D 40411 R
Schmidt 45531 D 60131 R
Mantle 398 D 462 R
Foxx 1549 D 721 R



Top 17. Best of our time:

Cabrera 22215 D 6643 R


*Numbers may be inflated by chemicals. Not voters -- home runs, that is.  

[pbrower2a]

In honor of my mother, who died on Monday morning:

Knauss 646 D 925 R


Hotel chains:

Hyatt 6229 D 6989 R
Hilton 10029 D 9808 R

Vehicle brands:

(I have Ford already)

Buick 161 D 118 D
Dodge 7288 D 9053 R
Chrysler 378 D 443 R
Mack 37535 D 13524 R
Toyota 81 D 27 R
Suzuki 1533 D 495 R
Honda 812 D 287 R (Japanese-Americans seem about as D as Jews)
Harley 5896 D 2481 R  
Davidson 36125 D 36583 R
Rolls 386 D 383 R
Royce 1667 D 1753 R
Studebaker 753 D 1117 R
Lada 279 D 274 R
Maxwell 25245 D 21617 R (Jack Benny's car -- part of his shtick)



I could not find numbers for Chevrolet, Cadillac, or Porsche. Don't expect Volvo, GMC, Oldsmobile, Fiat, or Volkswagen, either.

[pbrower2a]

Cars that I missed:

Ferrari 3048 D 2686 R
Mercedes 1757 D 126 R
Benz  1827 D 2318R (Huge split between two names for the same car).