Dutch surnames appear to be the most Republican leaning (i.e. De Jong, Vries, Visser, De Boer, Bakker, etc.), usually over 60%. This is what I expected, given that Dutch Americans are known to be quite politically conservative.
Next are German and Scandinavian names (Schmidt, Hansen, Andersen, etc.), generally in the mid to high 50s. White Midwesterners, mostly.
Italian names like Rossi, Russo, Volpe and Lombardi seem to be slightly Democrat, low to mid 50s. Not sure if Latinos with Italian surnames are pushing it a bit towards Democrats, as Italian Americans are thought to be politically conservative (though on the other hand, they are concentrated in the Northeast and maybe this conservatism is overstated?)
Polish (Nowak, Kowalski) and Irish (McCarthy, Reilly, O'Brien, O'Connor) also lean a bit Democratic.
This is the case.