The FIFA World Cup tipping competition

[GMantis]

Brazil 2-0 Croatia
Mexico 1-0 Cameroon

[GMantis]

Spain 1-0 Netherlands
Chile 3-1 Australia

[GMantis]

Colombia 2-0 Greece
Japan 2-1 Cote d'Ivoire

Italy 1-1 England
Uruguay 2-1 Costa Rica

[GMantis]

Japan 2-1 Cote d'Ivoire

While exactly the opposite happened, I did think that the winning team would first be behind before turning things around

[GMantis]

Ecuador 1-0 Switzerland
France 2-0 Honduras
Argentina 3-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina

[GMantis]

Germany 2-1 Portugal
Ghana 2-1 USA
Nigeria 2-0 Iran

[GMantis]

Belgium 2-0 Algeria
Brazil 2-1 Mexico
Russia 1-0 South Korea

[GMantis]

Netherlands 3-0 Australia
Spain 1-0 Chile
Croatia 2-1 Cameroon

[GMantis]

Colombia 2-1 Côte d'Ivoire
England 2-1 Uruguay
Greece 1-1 Japan

[GMantis]

With Urugland:

a person 52
Bore 52
Lief 50
Cris 49
Gass 48
Icehand Gino 48
Franzl 46
Snowstalker 44
Jas 42
Keystone Phil 40
morgieb 40
Gmantis 37
Minion of Midas 35 (I could have sworn I predicted Col-CdI 2-1, but clearly I didn't. Odd.)
Rod President 35
Edu 34
Hughento 34
Simfan 32
Tender Branson 31
Gully Foyle 30
Goodwin 27
New York Express 26
Arturo Belano 25
Hamster 16

Why didn't I get five points for correctly predicting the results of the Colombia - Côte d'Ivoire match?

[GMantis]

Italy 1-0 Costa Rica
France 2-1 Switzerland
Ecuador 3-0 Honduras

[GMantis]

Argentina 3-0 Iran
Germany 3-1 Ghana
Nigeria 2-2 Bosnia and Herzegovina

[GMantis]

Belgium 2-1 Russia
South Korea 1-1 Algeria
Portugal 2-0 USA

[GMantis]

Netherlands 2-1 Chile
Spain 1-1 Australia
Brazil 3-0 Cameroon
Mexico 1-1 Croatia

[GMantis]

Italy 2-0 Uruguay
Costa Rica 2-1 England
Colombia 3-0 Japan
Côte d'Ivoire 2-1 Greece

[GMantis]

Argentina 2-0 Nigeria
Iran 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
France 3-1 Ecuador
Switzerland 2-1 Honduras

[GMantis]

Germany 1-1 USA
Portugal 2-1 Ghana
Belgium 3-1 South Korea
Russia 2-1 Algeria

[GMantis]

For the knockout stage, these rules require slight modifications:
We'll be predicting the score after 90 minutes, plus who'll advance in case that we predict a draw.
1 point per tendency (win/draw/loss)
1 point for getting the advancing team right
1 point per goal difference (not available in drawn games)
1 point each per team's scores
Still a total of up to 5.

And here comes the part I'm still very much open to suggestions on: The knockout stage provides only 1/4 of the games overall - should it be given higher weight? Say, double points? Double for the sweet 16 and triple after that? Or is that a bad idea?

Shouldn't that be at the end of playing time (regardless whether 90 or 120 minutes)? Games decided in extra time are not usually considered draws.

[GMantis]

Brazil 2-1 Chile
Colombia 3-0 Uruguay

[GMantis]

For the knockout stage, these rules require slight modifications:
We'll be predicting the score after 90 minutes, plus who'll advance in case that we predict a draw.
1 point per tendency (win/draw/loss)
1 point for getting the advancing team right
1 point per goal difference (not available in drawn games)
1 point each per team's scores
Still a total of up to 5.

And here comes the part I'm still very much open to suggestions on: The knockout stage provides only 1/4 of the games overall - should it be given higher weight? Say, double points? Double for the sweet 16 and triple after that? Or is that a bad idea?

Shouldn't that be at the end of playing time (regardless whether 90 or 120 minutes)? Games decided in extra time are not usually considered draws.

They are in sports betting, though, at least in this country. Besides, I like the tendency / advancing team split, especially since we're on double points from here on out. The main alternative would have been to ignore penalty shootouts entirely and treat overtime wins and ordinary wins identically, which is what statistics compilers usually do, but is comparatively boring for the competition. (Or else complex rules that pretty much require people to be online at the 90th minute.)

The problem with this system is that someone who correctly guessed who would win and the exact score would get just two points, while someone who guessed the incorrect winner but guessed the score after 90 minutes would get six. This doesn't seem at all to be a fair indication of ability to make predictions. And the fact that winning by penalties and by an extra time goal is treated exactly the same doesn't seem logical at all.

[GMantis]

The problem with this system is that someone who correctly guessed who would win and the exact score would get just two points, while someone who guessed the incorrect winner but guessed the score after 90 minutes would get six.

This worst case scenario seems to be assuming a game where both teams score during overtime, one of them more often than the other? How many of these have there been in the past 30 years - the two I can think of offhand being in 1982 and 1970 (and pretty famous semifinals involving Germany)? Oh, and 8, not 6.

No, it is six since only eight points are available for draws and in this example two points would be struck off for not guessing correctly who will advance. Are you sure that you should be doing the counting, as you don't seem to understand your own rules

[GMantis]

Netherlands 2-1 Mexico
Greece 1-0 Costa Rica

[GMantis]

France 3-1 Nigeria
Germany 2-0 Algeria

[GMantis]

Argentina 2-0 Switzerland
Belgium 2-1 USA

[GMantis]

France 2-1 Germany
Brazil 2-1 Colombia