1992: Canada with Clinton/Bush/Perot

[King of Kensington]

The early 1990s, in both the US and Canada there was a lot of dissatisfaction with "traditional parties."  There are some parallels with the Reform Party and Perot's movement - both had a sort of rightwing populist appeal to the disaffected and put emphasis but Perot's appeal was conservative protectionist-nationalist (not a large constituency in Canada, ask David Orchard!), and his support base was much more spread across the country rather than so regionally concentrated.

I'm thinking Perot's base in Ontario would have been similar to what Reform/Alliance had cultivated there - strength in "mavericky" rural areas like Renfrew and Bruce-Grey as well as in industrial cities like St. Catharines and Oshawa (didn't Perot do quite well around Buffalo and Western NY?)

In B.C., the old NDP strongholds of the island and interior strike me as the areas where Perot done very well, as well as the Yukon.  One difference of course is that Reform also captured the orthodox small-"c" conservative constituency in Western Canada, so I don't think he would done better in the Fraser Valley, Peace River etc. compared to Vancouver Island (they would have stuck with Bush but Perot would maybe 25-30% of the vote).

Alberta would have probably been the only "province" where Bush won - a result similar to Montana or Wyoming.  Saskatchewan and Manitoba - hard to say.  Clinton would have won the cities, but not sure how the rural areas would go.

Atlantic Canada is hard to say - it was quite weak for Reform (save some decent showings in rural anglo New Brunswick) but it was also I think would have swung heavily against Bush because of the recession, and Perot could have gotten a lot of the disaffected vote.  After all Maine was his best state!

Quebec is a whole other can of worms.

1992 was also the election where the socially moderate, fiscally conservative began to swing toward the Democrats in major metropolitan areas.  Clinton certainly would have dominated the cities and made big gains in suburban Toronto and Vancouver etc.

[DC Al Fine]

More or less agree with you on Anglo Canada. As for Quebec....

Clinton wins the Island of Montreal, Gatineau & the Eastern townships. Perot wins the off Island suburbs, Quebec City, northern Quebec etc. Bush wins Beauce and is a decent 2nd in Quebec city.