Feingold/Richardson vs. Sanford/Santorum
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Feingold/Richardson vs. Sanford/Santorum
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Author Topic: Feingold/Richardson vs. Sanford/Santorum  (Read 610 times)
Frodo
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« on: March 31, 2005, 03:47:00 AM »
« edited: March 31, 2005, 04:21:27 AM by Frodo »

consider this 2008 scenario:

Wisconsin Senator Russell Feingold was chosen as the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson as his nominee. 

The Republican Party meanwhile chooses South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford as its presidential nominee, who promptly picks Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum as his vice-presidential nominee.

with much the same conditions that i have enumerated countless times before, how well will each ticket do against the other across the entire country?

maps are a must, as always.....   especially those with varied shading reflecting the percentages in each state.     
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2005, 04:04:20 AM »

The main question is how does a Jewish/Hispanic ticket play in Florida?

Could they win without PA or FL? Option 4 below is a bit of a stretch.


Here's five possible winning routes
1. Kerry states - PA + IA + FL + NM
2. Kerry states + OH
3. Kerry states + IA + NM + NV + CO
4. Kerry states - PA + OH + IA + NM + NV + CO
5. Kerry states + FL - NH
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2005, 04:17:56 AM »

The main question is how does a Jewish/Hispanic ticket play in Florida?

Could they win without PA or FL? Option 4 below is a bit of a stretch.


Here's five possible winning routes
1. Kerry states - PA + IA + FL + NM
2. Kerry states + OH
3. Kerry states + IA + NM + NV + CO
4. Kerry states - PA + OH + IA + NM + NV + CO
5. Kerry states + FL - NH

option 3 seems the most likely and attainable goal listed here.  we could make it razor close in Florida, at the very least. 
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2005, 04:56:15 AM »



option 3 seems the most likely and attainable goal listed here.  we could make it razor close in Florida, at the very least. 

Colorado would be the tricky part.  If you compare to the national average, it is trending Democratic, but Bush still won it by 4.67%.  Kerry may have been helped by the fact that it's his state of birth. Since 1936 it's only gone Democratic in 1948, 1964, and 1992. We did just win control of the state legislature and a US Senate seat there, though.

Alternatively you can substitute another state like Missouri or Arkansas, but they'd probably be even harder. At least Colorado was close this time and border's Richardson's state.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2005, 09:43:16 AM »



Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would be the key battle ground states as usual.  All of which could very easily flip and go to Sanford.
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