FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead

[krazen1211]

Link

Scott 42
Crist 40



Great news! This will be a well deserved thrashing.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I don't recall if SUSA is an actually bad pollster or just a kind of fair-to-middling one but in either case this is well within the margin of error and the percentage of people saying they'll vote for someone else is of course nowhere close to the percentage of people who actually will vote for someone else.

[Maxwell]

SUSA is a middling to good pollster, and the shift seems correct - Scott has been moving upwards/people have been so apathetic about Crist.

[krazen1211]

I don't recall if SUSA is an actually bad pollster or just a kind of fair-to-middling one but in either case this is well within the margin of error and the percentage of people saying they'll vote for someone else is of course nowhere close to the percentage of people who actually will vote for someone else.

Some might even say they are one of the better all around pollsters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was always gonna be a close race, at end Crist should win.

[Miles]

^ Since I've been dragged into this, yes, SUSA is generally one of the better pollsters.

If you're saying a result within the MoE a "thrashing," you're just being a hack (well, nothing new for you, I suppose).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This was always gonna be a close race, at end Christ should win.

It will be close, but don't count on a Crist victory. The economy is coming back, and homes are being built again. When Crist was the Republican governor, the economy crashed. When Scott came back in, it started recover.

I'm not giving Scott credit for the economy's slow revival, but it is well worth noting the difference. At the end of the day, the last few undecided voters will make the difference.

[henster]

I don't think either candidate will win more than 50% of the vote the Libertarian candidate may pull more than 5% of the vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OK Survey has polled every race thus far they pretty much have Scott and Walker and Kasich ahead. Let's see their MI poll that is what really matters the most.

[GaussLaw]

OK Survey has polled every race thus far they pretty much have Scott and Walker and Kasich ahead. Let's see their MI poll that is what really matters the most.

Why is it that whenever a poll is unfavorable to you, you just keep moving the goalposts? 

Anyways, Crist is probably still favored, but just barely.  Rick Scott is no Tom Corbett.  He can pull it off.

[free my dawg]

FLDems gonna FLDem.

[DrScholl]

Cut the trolling, krazey.....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OK Survey has polled every race thus far they pretty much have Scott and Walker and Kasich ahead. Let's see their MI poll that is what really matters the most.

Why is it that whenever a poll is unfavorable to you, you just keep moving the goalposts? 

Anyways, Crist is probably still favored, but just barely.  Rick Scott is no Tom Corbett.  He can pull it off.

Because aside from Mason Dixon, Survey is the most accurate pollster. And Syder or Scott may be our 3rd pickup opportunity.

[ajc0918]

4.3% MoE so this is- and will be- a close race.

Additionally, Scott has already spent $10 million on TV ads(both Pro-Scott and negative Crist) while Crist hasn't gone on air.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Rick Scott is no Tom Corbett.  He can pull it off.

While probably true, this is so depressing that I don't want to believe it, considering Scott is in all but technicality a felon--more a weaseler out of justice than a fugitive from it, but even so--and Corbett, for all his many, many flaws, isn't.

[IceSpear]

[Devils30]

One poll but most of the undecideds are blacks and young voters, not good for Scott. Scott will need to win whites by at least 15, 10 won't even come close in FL. Also is the problem of polling Hispanic voters, I highly doubt Scott is winning them outright and we know from 2012 Colorado, Florida, Nevada polls underestimated Obama bc this.

[Tender Branson]

I'd take GA for FL ... (but better both).

[greenforest32]

I'd take GA for FL ... (but better both).

Why GA > FL?

FL-Gov could do a lot of good, particularly with Florida's mass felon disenfranchisement. See Virginia and Terry McAuliffe: http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2014/04/18/3428483/governor-will-automatically-restore-voting-rights-for-all-virginians-with-a-drug-record/

[krazen1211]

One poll but most of the undecideds are blacks and young voters, not good for Scott. Scott will need to win whites by at least 15, 10 won't even come close in FL. Also is the problem of polling Hispanic voters, I highly doubt Scott is winning them outright and we know from 2012 Colorado, Florida, Nevada polls underestimated Obama bc this.

Scott won the Hispanic vote in the 2010 exit polls.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I don't think SUSA is a good pollster.  In the first months that Christie was governor of New Jersey, they had his job approval underwater at 33-63%, in spite of countless polls that had his approval much higher.

[pbrower2a]

4.3% MoE so this is- and will be- a close race.

Additionally, Scott has already spent $10 million on TV ads(both Pro-Scott and negative Crist) while Crist hasn't gone on air.

That explains a lot. At this stage who has the lead may depend upon who has put out the most ads. Republican front groups of course have an edge when they flood the airwaves.

[Person Man]

4.3% MoE so this is- and will be- a close race.

Additionally, Scott has already spent $10 million on TV ads(both Pro-Scott and negative Crist) while Crist hasn't gone on air.

That explains a lot. At this stage who has the lead may depend upon who has put out the most ads. Republican front groups of course have an edge when they flood the airwaves.

I am guessing in Tampa or Miami, every channel is FOX news right now.

[Donerail]

4.3% MoE so this is- and will be- a close race.

Additionally, Scott has already spent $10 million on TV ads(both Pro-Scott and negative Crist) while Crist hasn't gone on air.

That explains a lot. At this stage who has the lead may depend upon who has put out the most ads. Republican front groups of course have an edge when they flood the airwaves.

I am guessing in Tampa or Miami, every channel is FOX news right now.

I'm not feeling that big a presence here, but it's pretty early. I know I've seen a few, but it doesn't really feel like election season yet.

[sg0508]

A lot of you underestimate how much stronger and more organized the statewide GOP is compared to the statewide Democratic Party in FL. I lived there for five years while going to college.  In addition, Charlie Crist doesn't exactly inspire much confidence, especially in south FL where he should clean up as a democrat.  There are plenty of voters I know in Palm Beach/Broward who have a "shrug the shoulder" opinion of him.  I have a feeling Scott is going to survive this.