2012 without Sandy, 47% comment, Ryan workout pics, or Akin comments

[Matty]

Even without those, I think Romney only gains Florida.

[Potus]

Without all of those? Romney wins. It would have affected the gender gap, the "cares about me" question (Which is the reason he lost),  and Sandy was probably a half point at most. Ryan didn't hurt the ticket in that sense.

If I could pick any one thing, it would be 47% and how Mitt addressed his wealth.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Romney gains FL, VA, and CO, but still loses 257-281. He wins the popular vote by about 0.5%.

In the senate, Republicans get back MT and ND, and hold IN and MO, but other than that it's the same. Democrats get a 51-49 majority.

In the governorships, Republicans add in MT, but everything else is the same. Republican Gubernatorial Majority of 31-19 (narrows to 30-20 after 2013 VA loss)

In the house, Republicans would probably end up losing 3-5 seats rather than the 8 seats they actually lost.

[Maxwell]

Obama still wins. If it weren't the 47% comment, it would've been something else.

[Supersonic]

I wouldn't be surprised if the workout pictures gained votes..

[Never]

I think Romney would have picked up Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, giving him a 275-263 victory in the electoral college. He would have won about 50-51% of the popular vote, and it probably would have taken until late Wednesday or Thursday for him to win Colorado and pass the 270 EV threshold.

Without the 47% remarks, Akin comments, and Hurricane Sandy, and Ryan's workout pics, Romney could have very well rode the momentum from his first debate to a narrow win. He would have been viewed as a competent businessman instead of an elitist.

[NHI]

√ Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 279 (50.0%)

Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 259 (48.5%)

[NewYorkExpress]

Realistically the only major things that killed Romney in this race were the 47% comment and the Akin/Mourdock... You could Superstorm Sandy hurt Obama just as much, since several of the states, were battleground states, and I'm pretty sure the Ryan pictures helped more than they hurt (which really was a net wash)

[Likely Voter]

Sandy and the Ryan pics are nothing. The 47% and Akin stuff hurt but they weren't isolated. The 47% was the tip of the plutocrat pyramid, along with his tax returns, "Corporations are People" "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" and general Thurston Howell-like personna. And his problem with women (notably single women) was more damaged by comments like "Planned Parenthood...Gonna shut that down" and "Binders Full of Women"and his endorsement of "Personhood"  etc.
 
And then of course you still have the whole "self-deportation"'/Latino vote problem.

...so he still loses.

Maybe he picks up FL and maybe one more state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't delude yourselves, pubbies.

[NHLiberal]

For the incredible amount of knowledge that people on this forum have about the specifics of individual elections and states, there is a stunning lack of understanding surrounding how campaigns and elections actually work. Campaigns play an incredibly small role in elections; demographics, party identification, presidential approval, and the state of the economy impact nearly all of the votes. Very few votes are cast based on these sorts of variables.

For example,t he 47% comment would have been meaningless if there wasn't already widespread sentiment that Romney was out-of touch, an elitist, unconcerned for the poor, etc. And I highly doubt it changed anyone's votes, even people who were supposedly "undecided" at that point. Ryan's workout pics made 0 difference whatsoever, and Sandy had no impact whatsoever in any of the states that mattered. Akin's comments did not affect Romney because he was completely isolated from them and denounced them, though a preexisting general sentiment of a Republican "war on women" may have hurt Romney.