White Urban Vote

[GaussLaw]

I don't know if this has been done before, but could someone calculate the % white vote that the Democratic (or Republican) party got in each major city?

Ones I'm curious about:
-NYC
-Philadelphia
-Baltimore
-D.C.
-Houston
-Austin
-Dallas
-Los Angeles
-San Diego
-San Francisco
-Seattle
-Portland
-Denver
-Chicago
-Minneapolis
-Louisville
-OKC
-Tulsa
-Ft. Worth
-New Orleans
-Memphis
-Philadelphia
-Cleveland
-Detroit
-Milwaukee
-Madison
-Miami
-Jacksonville
-Tampa
-Indianapolis
-St. Louis
-Phoenix
-Boston

I know there are others, but this list covered a broad spectrum of areas including the South, West, Midwest, and Northeast. 

I'd also like to clarify that I'm talking about the city limits, if possible (not the county itself) and ideally the %'s take into account turnout differences (like Hispanics turning out in lower rates in TX than whites, for instance).  I know that I could figure out 2008 numbers using Dave's app, but I'd really like 2012 numbers as that's a more neutral election year.

I know this is a lot to ask, but it seems like people on Atlas have already calculated this stuff, and this data would be a nice resource for examining the causes of the urban/rural divide, and what proportion race is in that mix.

[Del Tachi]

The white vote in New Orleans is actually pretty Republican from my observations.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I know Obama won whites in Washington DC handily.

[Mr. Illini]

As far as Chicago goes, Obama won the white vote in Illinois in 2008, and white downstaters are decidedly hardcore Republican at this point, so he had to run up big numbers in the city and suburbs, which will be higher in the city, so it can be assumed that whites in Chicago vote hardcore Democrat.

You can also compare these maps.





red=white in the second map. Most of the white areas are in the 70-90% Obama territories.

Sorry, that's the best I could do. Hopefully someone can give more exact numbers.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Illini, think you could find the results of Northern vs. Central vs. Southern Illinois (assuming there's a widely used cutoff for where those regions start and end)?  Assuming that'd be pretty interesting.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Incidentally, Obama won most of the river cities in northern Kentucky, which are predominantly working-class white, and urban in character. For instance, Dayton is 98% white and Obama won it twice. Although it's a small city, Dayton is clearly urban in its basic character.

[Mr. Illini]

Illini, think you could find the results of Northern vs. Central vs. Southern Illinois (assuming there's a widely used cutoff for where those regions start and end)?  Assuming that'd be pretty interesting.

Are you thinking of the white vote from those three regions or the total vote from the regions? I could tally the general vote by region (they are well defined), but it would be easier for someone with more advanced technology to do it. I would have to go county by county.

Because of the nature of exit polls, I can't think of a way that I could calculate the white vote by region.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Illini, think you could find the results of Northern vs. Central vs. Southern Illinois (assuming there's a widely used cutoff for where those regions start and end)?  Assuming that'd be pretty interesting.

Are you thinking of the white vote from those three regions or the total vote from the regions? I could tally the general vote by region (they are well defined), but it would be easier for someone with more advanced technology to do it. I would have to go county by county.

Because of the nature of exit polls, I can't think of a way that I could calculate the white vote by region.

Just the general results!  I've heard that there are small pockets of Southern Illinois that are still friendly to (the right kind of) Democrats, but that rural Downstate in general is pretty loyally Republican.

[DINGO Joe]

The white vote in New Orleans is actually pretty Republican from my observations.

It's gotten much more Dem after Katrina.

[Sol]

Off the top of my head, I'm fairly certain Obama won whites in:

-NYC
-Philadelphia
-Baltimore
-D.C.
-Austin
-Los Angeles
-San Francisco
-Seattle
-Portland
-Denver
-Chicago
-Minneapolis
-Cleveland
-Detroit
-Milwaukee
-Madison
-Miami
-St. Louis
-Boston

I have no idea regarding San Diego, Tampa, and Indianapolis.

Everywhere else Romney likely won whites.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What about Cincinnati?

[Sol]

What about Cincinnati?

I suspect, just off the top of my head, that Cincy whites voted for Obama, but by much smaller numbers than in either Columbus or Cleveland.

[Mr. Illini]

Illini, think you could find the results of Northern vs. Central vs. Southern Illinois (assuming there's a widely used cutoff for where those regions start and end)?  Assuming that'd be pretty interesting.

Are you thinking of the white vote from those three regions or the total vote from the regions? I could tally the general vote by region (they are well defined), but it would be easier for someone with more advanced technology to do it. I would have to go county by county.

Because of the nature of exit polls, I can't think of a way that I could calculate the white vote by region.

Just the general results!  I've heard that there are small pockets of Southern Illinois that are still friendly to (the right kind of) Democrats, but that rural Downstate in general is pretty loyally Republican.

Well, it is interesting. Going back to the Civil War era, you had the Republicans owning northern IL and the Democrats sweeping southern IL with actually east-central IL (the Indiana side) voting Republican with the north and west-central IL voting Northern Democrat with Missouri.

In the 1900's, however, the two portions of the states actually voted very differently. The central (farmland) portion of the state was hardcore Republican and voting along with Indiana very consistently while the southern portion of the state was actually quite loyal to the Democrats. This pattern is evident especially in local elections and for Clinton, and even in 2000 you saw a carry-over of Democratic support in the southern portion of the state for Gore.

The pattern has gradually gotten stronger over the last 20 years of both regions becoming solidly Republican. Bush largely solidified southern IL with the exception of a couple of Democratic stronghold counties down there. By 2012, those stronghold counties were no longer - voting Republican. The only counties in southern IL which appear that they will remain Democratic-voting are St. Claire (STL suburbs), Jackson (Carbondale and SIU), and Alexander (heavily-minority and rapidly-abandoned town Cairo).

Even today, however, if you go down to the township-level  results, you'll find some towns in these formerly solidly southern Democrat counties still voting Democrat.

These selected Presidential maps show the shift pretty well.

(non-atlas colors) http://i560.photobucket.com/albums/ss48/seantrende/Illinois_860.gif
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=1976&f=0&elect=0&off=0
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2000&f=0&elect=0&off=0
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2012&f=0&elect=0&off=0

P.S. Check back here because I am considering tallying the regions if no one else does with their more advanced technology

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just can't believe Romney won Madison County IL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More interesting is in which of those did Obama win white evangelicals. I've actually mentioned there exists a neighborhood where it's likely Obama won white evangelicals and Romney won Jews (kind of obvious if you know it but I'll leave you to guess.)

[TJ in Oregon]

More interesting is in which of those did Obama win white evangelicals. I've actually mentioned there exists a neighborhood where it's likely Obama won white evangelicals and Romney won Jews (kind of obvious if you know it but I'll leave you to guess.)

Williamsburg, NYC comes to mind as the neighborhood you're referring to, but I imagine there are probably others.

I think it's possible that could have happened in Cleveland Heights as well (since it has a Hasidic neighborhood) but the issue would be finding who the white evangelicals are.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More interesting is in which of those did Obama win white evangelicals. I've actually mentioned there exists a neighborhood where it's likely Obama won white evangelicals and Romney won Jews (kind of obvious if you know it but I'll leave you to guess.)

Williamsburg, NYC comes to mind as the neighborhood you're referring to, but I imagine there are probably others.

I think it's possible that could have happened in Cleveland Heights as well (since it has a Hasidic neighborhood) but the issue would be finding who the white evangelicals are.

Pretty much everywhere in the US is going to have someone who goes to a non-denominational church.

BTW I saw some Orthodox (but not Hasidic most likely) Jews while I was in Madison where one of the key portals was a synagogue. all the males were wearing yarmulkes (it was Saturday). It's safe to say that they are probably more Republican than the white evangelicals in that part of Madison although obviously not as Republican as the Hasids in Brooklyn. Actually played at two synagogues in fact but didn't see anyone at the second, which was in a more residential area and I'm assuming was probably a reform one (Beth Israel Center for the record.)

[Rockefeller GOP]

Thanks, Illini.

And I'm not sure on the other cities, but I'll wager that there's no way Cincinnati or Indianapolis Whites voted for Obama.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Thanks, Illini.

And I'm not sure on the other cities, but I'll wager that there's no way Cincinnati or Indianapolis Whites voted for Obama.

In Cincinnati they were definitely more pro-Obama than in the suburbs.

On the other hand, McCain in 2008 did win some areas within the city that had become full of yuppie-style whites after being gentrified.

[TDAS04]

The white vote in New Orleans is actually pretty Republican from my observations.

I believe that Miles once estimated that Obama carried the New Orleans white vote with roughly 57%.

[pbrower2a]

As I recall, most "independent cities" (cities not within a country government) of Virginia went heavily to Barack Obama. Colonial Heights was a blatant exception.

Some of those cities aren't especially large -- Fredericksburg, Lexington, Manassas, Martinsville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester... of course, Harrisonburg and Charlotte have large universities.

High population densities make people more tolerant of Big Government.   

[jamesyons]

Obama definitely lost whites in Cincinnati, look at the west side of Cincinnati where once you get out of the minority areas, Romney won 60-70%, and in many of the wealthier areas on the east side, there were many toss-up areas and there are few whites in Downtown.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama definitely lost whites in Cincinnati, look at the west side of Cincinnati where once you get out of the minority areas, Romney won 60-70%

Most of those probably aren't within the city. Those are probably the white supremacist precincts outside the city where racists like Steve Chabot get most of their support.

[TJ in Oregon]

Obama definitely lost whites in Cincinnati, look at the west side of Cincinnati where once you get out of the minority areas, Romney won 60-70%, and in many of the wealthier areas on the east side, there were many toss-up areas and there are few whites in Downtown.

The minority majority parts of the city go nearly to the city line on the West side of Cincinnati. The 80% R precincts are all in the suburbs. Meanwhile, a large swath of the east side of Cincinnati is 55-60% D and mostly white. There are white Republican pockets, but Obama still won the white vote in Cincinnati proper. Hamilton County as a whole, clearly not, but just the city yes. Still for a northern major city, Cincinnati probably has about as Republican of a white vote as any.

[Miles]

I remember a year so back, I found that Obama won the majority-white precincts in Orleans Parish with 56% (in 2008).