Discrepancies between population and electorate by state, 2012
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  Discrepancies between population and electorate by state, 2012
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Author Topic: Discrepancies between population and electorate by state, 2012  (Read 1090 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: May 28, 2014, 01:33:55 AM »

Someone may have already did a comparison of this, but I thought I'd take a look at each state's discrepancy between its overall populations and electorates in 2012. This is total population and not VAP - not only would it have been more difficult to do under VAP or CVAP, but the spirit of what I wanted to illustrate here frankly should include children and undocumented residents.

In states where there was no exit polling for 2012, I used 2008 data and then projected using changes in population over that 4-year period. Several of the darkest states actually had percentage-point discrepancies greater than 15 (Hawaii was around 23% white, yet 44% of voters were white in 2012). It's rather interesting to see non-whites comprising a larger share of the electorate than they are of population in parts of Appalachia and the Rust Belt. Are non-whites declining as a share of younger residents or could higher unionization rates play a role in increased non-white turnout?



I then considered this data in conjunction with exit polling preferences by race to see what the 2012 elections would have looked like had the electorate matched total population. You get this:



Rather amazing to imagine that Republicans would be clinging to dear life in Georgia and Texas, while trying to fight for states like Florida and Virginia how they currently do with states like Pennsylvania and Michigan (the latter two of which barely moved in this scenario).
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2014, 02:29:14 AM »

Someone may have already did a comparison of this, but I thought I'd take a look at each state's discrepancy between its overall populations and electorates in 2012. This is total population and not VAP - not only would it have been more difficult to do under VAP or CVAP, but the spirit of what I wanted to illustrate here frankly should include children and undocumented residents.

In states where there was no exit polling for 2012, I used 2008 data and then projected using changes in population over that 4-year period. Several of the darkest states actually had percentage-point discrepancies greater than 15 (Hawaii was around 23% white, yet 44% of voters were white in 2012). It's rather interesting to see non-whites comprising a larger share of the electorate than they are of population in parts of Appalachia and the Rust Belt. Are non-whites declining as a share of younger residents or could higher unionization rates play a role in increased non-white turnout?



I then considered this data in conjunction with exit polling preferences by race to see what the 2012 elections would have looked like had the electorate matched total population. You get this:



Rather amazing to imagine that Republicans would be clinging to dear life in Georgia and Texas, while trying to fight for states like Florida and Virginia how they currently do with states like Pennsylvania and Michigan (the latter two of which barely moved in this scenario).
I did a calculation if representatives were based on votes cast, Texas and California lost a lot, and IIRC, Iowa would have been back to 6 representatives.

If representatives were elected proportionally in each state, they GOP would have a majority in the House.  When Romney said he was going to contest states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin he brought enough hope to help out Republican representatives.   Meanwhile the ego of Obama and his advisers led them to simply notch up black turnout in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2014, 04:07:57 PM »

What's most remarkable on that map is Alaska.
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