FiveThirtyEight Gov Probabilities Released:

[jaichind]

I am surprised that Hawaii was not mentioned.  Most likely Dem will win but some early polling has Aiona ahead of Abercrombie in a rematch of 2010.  Yes, Abercrombie won by a large margin in 2010, but the polls in early 2010 also indicated a double digit lead for Abercrombie.  Now the polls from early 2014 show a Aiona lead.  I think these polls at least should put the race up for discussion. 

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm thinking the US Senate race in Hawaii will likely lead to voters pulling the lever for the Dem in the Governor's race.

But wouldn't be surprised if a Republican won the governorship again barring the Dems screwing it up like 2002.

[free my dawg]

I am surprised that Hawaii was not mentioned.  Most likely Dem will win but some early polling has Aiona ahead of Abercrombie in a rematch of 2010.  Yes, Abercrombie won by a large margin in 2010, but the polls in early 2010 also indicated a double digit lead for Abercrombie.  Now the polls from early 2014 show a Aiona lead.  I think these polls at least should put the race up for discussion. 

Mufi Hannemann is running as an independent. That puts things in question at least, especially on who he'll steal votes from. He'll snag a few socon votes and maybe even some of the old Hawaii establishment.

But wouldn't be surprised if a Republican won the governorship again barring the Dems screwing it up like 2002.

Ain't even mad. Our candidate beat her in the rematch anyway.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Whatever happened to Lingle anyways ? What's she been doing since she got blown out in the 2012 U.S. Senate race to Horino.