Which Senate seats do you think will be won by a Democratic?

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NY Times odds given

Michigan   82%
Iowa    81%
Colorado   61%
North Carolina   52%
Alaska   50%
Arkansas   49%
Georgia   46%
Louisiana   41%
Kentucky   15%

All others looking pretty safe

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

[Maxwell]

I say Michigan, Iowa, Colorado and Alaska.

[Never]

I can say with confidence that the Michigan Senate race will be won by the Democrat. Other than that, I think everything else is up in the air for now.

[Maxwell]

I can say with confidence that the Michigan Senate race will be won by the Democrat. Other than that, I think everything else is up in the air for now.

Joni Ernst will not win that seat. Let's be real. Bruce Braley should be vulnerable, but Ernst is a nut.

[GaussLaw]

I think Ernst has a shot, given how she unified tea partiers and the establishment GOP. 

But I'd say Michigan, Iowa, and Colorado stay D, and the rest are R wins IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK,MI,IA and CO and either LA or NC for a divided Senate.

[SWE]

All of them sans Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana

[Maxwell]

I think Ernst has a shot, given how she unified tea partiers and the establishment GOP. 

She won't be able to bring in Democrats and Independents by talking about castrating pigs or saying that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, I'll tell you that much.

[SPC]

At this point, I say Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, and Arkansas. Of course that is highly subject to change.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Every single last one of them. I can't believe Colorado and Alaska are even on this list.

[Frodo]

Michigan, Iowa, and Colorado definitely.  The rest will likely be occupied by a Republican by next January. 

[free my dawg]

IA, MI, CO, AK, from most likely to least likely. Jury's still out on NC.

[RogueBeaver]

IA/MI definitely. CO as of now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If the Tea Party weirdo wins the primary in Mississippi, that state could be added to this list.

[badgate]

The first five.

[bballrox4717]

I voted Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, and Arkansas. I'd bet serious money on Michigan and Colorado. I'm still confident on Iowa, Alaska and Arkansas, but those states could make me look really dumb come November. North Carolina is a coin flip at this point. The run-off in Louisiana might be completely dependent on how many seats the Democrats have after election day, and we're going to need some pissed off Republicans in Kentucky and Georgia if we want to win there.

[Del Tachi]

All but NC, GA and KY

[LeBron]

All the races except AR, LA, and KY.

Michigan and Iowa are fools gold for Republicans especially since MI has a watered down, anti-birth control/extreme pro-lifer Santorum GOP candidate who's way too conservative to get elected against Peters, gaffes or not. IA may have been winnable if they nominated Jacobs, but they're throwing this race away by nominating "gun to Obamacare" Joni Ernst.

Colorado might be close now, but Udall is strongly taking advantage of Gardner's terrible socon views, so I could see a lot of undecided's breaking for Udall.

North Carolina just needs time for Hagan to breakaway. She's one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate and is facing an unpopular, right-wing lunatic with a Libertarian in the race who will likely perform well for voters strong hate against the legislature with the program cuts and voting restrictions.

Alaska is a given since there will be a few third party right-wing candidacies and there's going to be higher turnout.

And Georgia, well, Kingston is getting all of the endorsements and he seems slightly favored to beat Perdue. Kingston though is weak, will probably use up a lot of his money against Perdue and would struggle rallying the far-right behind him. Plus polling suggests Nunn performs strongly against him and is in the mid-high 40s.

[SWE]

And Georgia, well, Kingston is getting all of the endorsements and he seems slightly favored to beat Perdue. Kingston though is weak, will probably use up a lot of his money against Perdue and would struggle rallying the far-right behind him. Plus polling suggests Nunn performs strongly against him and is in the mid-high 40s.

The thing is, the mid-high 40s isn't enough. She'd need to break 50 just to avoid a runoff, which I doubt she'd win with turnout that'd be even lower than the general.

[Kevin]

Only Michigan, Iowa and Colorado at most.

I feel that the dynamics of the national mood this year will probably sweep those Red State Democrats out of office.

[ElectionsGuy]

First three

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We definately need to hold onto AK and La and NC would give us 51 seats.

[ShadowRocket]

MI, CO, IA, and AK. I think it is still possible that Grimes or Nunn could pull off an upset in either of their respective races, but I feel Nunn's chances took a hit when Broun/Gingrey/Handel lost the primary, and that the national environment will save McConnell in the end.

[Mr. Illini]

Everything listed but North Carolina and Arkansas.

[SPC]

Anyone notice Mark Begich in Alaska drastically underperformed the polls in 2008? I voted by the way Michigan & Colorado & Louisiana.

That's because both "pollsters" that bothered to poll the race were either literally making up their numbers or hilariously inaccurate.