How many counties will Hillary win in WV?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Obama won 0 of 55 counties. It's assumed Hillary will lose WV by at least a Kerry/Obama 08 margin, but how many counties can she bring back to the Dem column?

[CatoMinor]

1-5. Maybe.

The most Democratic parts of the state are in the coal country, where Democrats as a whole, not just Obama, are being hated on more and more there. In 08 She could have swept the southern counties, but I doubt with the current climate should could win more than a few.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to guess and say 6-10. She'll probably do slightly better than Obama '08.

[WalterMitty]

5-6 max.

[IceSpear]

Obama won 7 in 2008, so I expect around 10.

[MATTROSE94]

Possibly none.

[DINGO Joe]

Unless she's lapped the field, there's no reason to put any effort in to WV.  She could win some of he more "cosmopolitan" counties--Jefferson, Mononaglia, Kanawha, Cabell, but most of the state is in a freefall morass of drugs, corruption, and declining coal--all Obama's fault of course.

[Mr. Illini]

Something similar to the Kerry map, unless she comes out hard for coal. Even if not, here counties will be near Appalachia, but doing so would create a ripple effect.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I believe this year's midterms have answered this question: zero.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

7, just like Obama '08.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Unless she's lapped the field, there's no reason to put any effort in to WV.  She could win some of he more "cosmopolitan" counties--Jefferson, Mononaglia, Kanawha, Cabell, but most of the state is in a freefall morass of drugs, corruption, and declining coal--all Obama's fault of course.

If history is any indication, she'd do WORSE in the "cosmopolitan counties."

[henster]

I bet she wins nothing and only does slightly better tha Obama.

[Mehmentum]

I believe this year's midterms have answered this question: zero.

Just like how the 2010 midterms proved that Obama would lose in 2012, oh wait.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I believe this year's midterms have answered this question: zero.

Just like how the 2010 midterms proved that Obama would lose in 2012, oh wait.

I don't think anyone with a basic understanding of politics claimed that 2010 proved Obama would lose in 2012, given what happened less than 20 years before in 94/96. The trend in WV is undeniable. If Obama hadn't gotten slammed just as bad as Tennant in 2012, than I would say it was just a result of the Republican wave and Hillary could win some counties. I don't see a significant amount of Romney voters crossing over to vote for Hillary in 2016, especially not enough to flip a county. Coal country has become more hostile to national Democrats than the rest of the state, so I'm not sure where the shift would come from.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I can't imagine Hillary doing worse in WV than Obama '08. I guess it depends on what kind of campaign she runs, who her running mate is, etc. If she chooses a black or Hispanic running mate and tries to run on the Obama coalition with a slight rebound among working-class whites, I could see her just about winning the Obama 08 counties except switch McDowell with Kanawha. If she assumes the Obama coalition is already in the bag for the Dems and decides to run a full-on working-class white focused campaign to try to win back the previous Clinton coalition and chooses a white Southern male running mate- and has Bill Clinton constantly campaigning across WV- she could win a bunch more counties. If she picks Joe Manchin for her running mate I think she easily outperforms Obama 08/Kerry 04 and end up more like Gore 2000 but even then the state would not be winnable.

I don't think coal country is gone for the Democrats with the right candidate, but I think Illinois-born Hillary at this point is less associated with being First Lady of Arkansas and Bill Clinton's wife and more associated with being a Senator from New York and Secretary of State to Barack Obama.

If Hillary is winning nationally by a large margin I can't imagine her not at least winning the NoVA spillover in Jefferson County. Also I think Kanawha would flip in such a scenario at the very least too.

[Rockefeller GOP]

I believe this year's midterms have answered this question: zero.

Just like how the 2010 midterms proved that Obama would lose in 2012, oh wait.

I don't think anyone with a basic understanding of politics claimed that 2010 proved Obama would lose in 2012, given what happened less than 20 years before in 94/96. The trend in WV is undeniable. If Obama hadn't gotten slammed just as bad as Tennant in 2012, than I would say it was just a result of the Republican wave and Hillary could win some counties. I don't see a significant amount of Romney voters crossing over to vote for Hillary in 2016, especially not enough to flip a county. Coal country has become more hostile to national Democrats than the rest of the state, so I'm not sure where the shift would come from.

You could also argue that Capito was an exceptionally strong candidate to run against, but I see your point.

[TDAS04]

Maybe 6-10, but any more is unlikely. 

[BaconBacon96]

I believe this year's midterms have answered this question: zero.

^^^

Appalachia is lost.

[IceSpear]

After the last election, I'm switching my vote to 1-5. I doubt she gets shut out, even Tennant came within single digits in a couple.

[SWE]

All of them

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

All of them

Nice Sarcasm.

For what it's worth, the last democratic federal candidate in WV to manage such a feat was Mr. Byrd back in the 2000 senate race, who got 78% of the vote. In 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 the democrats won the senate race, but the republican won at least one county.

[Mr. Illini]

Unless she's lapped the field, there's no reason to put any effort in to WV.  She could win some of he more "cosmopolitan" counties--Jefferson, Mononaglia, Kanawha, Cabell, but most of the state is in a freefall morass of drugs, corruption, and declining coal--all Obama's fault of course.

If history is any indication, she'd do WORSE in the "cosmopolitan counties."

History isn't any indication really at this point. The politics of Appalachia have changed incredibly.